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Discussion in 'Tech Talk - Gadgets, Gizmos and Technology' started by Chris Blount, Feb 2, 2011.
The same song played during the transition from Palm Pilots to Crackberries.
I don't see the parallel.
Could Android beat out Apple in the mobile market? Maybe... but it wouldn't be VHS vs Beta.
Beta and VHS were essentially two different ways to do exactly the same thing.
The competing color transmission formats 50 years ago is a valid comparison... as would be the recent HD-DVD vs Blu-ray competition.
But iPhone vs Android doesn't really compare.
Is Ford vs GM the same as Beta vs VHS?
Is Coke vs Pepsi the same as Beta vs VHS?
In Beta vs VHS... the average end-user got the same experience... so they chose the one that did it cheaper for the most part.
In Coke vs Pepsi, the experience isn't identical... so you have people on one side, people on the other, and people who go back and forth. Both thrive.
Android vs iPhone has a much better chance, to me, of being Coke vs Pepsi.
Coke and Pepsi aren't the same thing? I thought they just put different labels on the stuff.
While there is competition between Apple and everyone else, unlike the VHS/Beta wars, both Apple and Android can both exist comfortably.
In VHS/Beta, there was a very limited source of content--the studios. Studios had a very expensive proposition if they wanted to support both. Consumers wanted simple choices.
In Apple vs. et al, each platform has its own marketplace to purchase content. You don't walk into Kmart struggling with VHS or Beta decisions. You link to your market and you easily know what is available for you.
PCs and Apples have co-existed now for over 30 years. Both serve their customer base well, and both will likely continue.
VHS and Beta could not have lasted in that way.
And a very big part of Beta's losing the battle was the 20 minute time limitation per cartridge. Big mistake in the US when shows are 30 minutes minimum.
I don't believe it is comparable to the Betamax vs VHS issue.
First off, it is a lot easier to create software, and develop it for multiple platforms then to distribute physical meda such as video tapes, especially now in the electronic age, where a single programmer in his attic can literary create an app for every device he owns, and place it in an online store.
Second, there are more phones then just the iPhone and Android. Blackberry is still going strong in the business world, and Windows 7 Mobile has just ben introduced and promises to be a good contender.
The VHS/Betamax war was about setting a standard for physical media. The closest we have seen to that was the war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, where Blu-Ray came out as the winner. And in that case of another physical media war, a decission had to be made. One could be the winner, not both.
In the case of phones, iPhone and Android can share the same market, as well share it with Blackberry, Windows Mobile, Symbian, and some others.
Just take a look at this graph:
There is no NEED for a "clear winner" like there is with physical media. No need at all.
Oh I am sure they will have a bigger marketshare then iPhone. But an outright "winner" of the "mobile OS war" will not be declared.
MacOS, as mentioned above, has retained about 9% of computer markershare, about 90% is Windows, and the remaining 1% is Linux. Windows may be the big marketshare holder, but neither MacOS or Linux are going to go dissappear anytime soon.
There is just no case of "Betamax vs VHS" in the Smart Phone market.
The reason one of my notebook's HD DVD player is a dead technology and the reason that my friends Betamax VCR became a dead technology is the lack of content available - folks quit putting out movies in that format.
That's not going to happen with the iPad or Android tablets. This kind of hardware is a platform for generally accepted Apps and content.
Yes, one has to get irritable with Apple over the Flash thing and Google over the H.264 video thing, but at least in the latter case Microsoft announced that it is releasing a plug-in for Google Chrome that enables H.264 support on Windows 7.
Well, what I think will turn people off to Apple phones is that everything has to have the blessing of Apple and Apple insists on their cut. Meanwhile, Android says, please use official sources, but if you want to add something non-official, go right ahead.
Apple is already blocking app developers from making their apps cross-platform.
So the arrogance is still there. With that in mind, I expect in a few years the market division will be the same as the PC world.
Do you think their controlling the environment could be a business plan, rather than arrogance? A handful of folk keep using that word, not often effectively.
And I'd be happy to wager on your expectation!:lol:
Frankly, I've always seen this as half-full instead of half-empty.
Until we got to these newer smartphones, you couldn't add your own apps at all to a phone.
Apple allows you to add apps... they could just close the whole thing off to any non-Apple apps if they wanted.
And people that freak out over that 30% cut... keep in mind that Apple is running the distribution system (app store) and advertising and selling your software 24 hours a day for you.
The big companies like EA or other established companies can promote their own stuff by name recognition... but a newbie on the scene wouldn't be able to see boo for a smartphone without major push from the hardware manufacturer.
We wouldn't have things like Angry Birds IF that guy didn't have the App store and Apple behind it to push it... IF it were on a Web site where you had to search for it... it would be much harder for people to sell their apps at any kind of volume/price to make a living at it.
You've done a good job of pointing out the positive aspects of Apple's position / policies and there are benefits. On the flip side consumers see the "openness" of Android and would like to have the best of both worlds. I won't go into the argument of whether Android (or any other OS) provides that or not here as I think it's been pretty well dissected in other threads.
I just go back to it being a very large market and open to a lot of different people. If you like low price or hackability you'll want Android. And the combination of those two might be a majority. But then there are people who want style and usability and Apple has always done that well. Beta vs. VHS? I don't see that as the model here. Maybe PC vs. Mac. There was a time when it wasn't clear who would win there either, but PC hardware became available on multiple manufacturers while Mac stayed closed. So now PCs have 90-something percent market share, which doesn't matter one bit to the Apple people who consistently show higher profits than anyone else.
Like others have said, Apple isn't going anywhere, and they'll still make more money per device sold than anyone, by a large margin.
But, very much like the PC vs. Mac, Android is going to wipe out everyone else but Apple, and will relgate Apple to 15-20% share of the market, max, within a couple of years.
WinPhone7 and WebOS are good OSs, and BlackBerry has been heavily entrenched, but none of that matters. What matters is: what OS has App support and development? Clearly Apple, who "semi-invented" the concept (even though they resisted external developers at first), and Android, with Google actively encouraging external developers.
No one is going to be developing apps for Blackberry, WP7, or WebOS, and those OSs are going to disappear. I predict at least one will be gone by 1Q12, and all three by 1Q13. And let's not even talk about Symbian, which is in a massive death spiral right now, because feature phones are dead.
The one thing I've come to like about Apple is that it just plain works. I can do everything on Apple products that I can on my PC. Apple introduced AirPlay and all of my media devices talk to each other just fine (iMacs, Apple TV, iPhone) without any additional software.
If it were anything but an Apple product I would say that Android will be a clear winner. However, Apple fans and just that...fanatical.
IMHO, Android will wind up with the lions share of the phone market with iPhone right behind. There’s gonna be a surge with the Verizon version of the iPhone skewing the numbers. I’ll be more interested what the growth numbers the end of this year and next. That will be a much better indication of where the market is going.
Don't forget: It's the product, not the man, not the company.
~ Fan of good stuff.....
Only those two images were used...without commentary...to present the two views per the OP.
I thought it's the user, not the product, not the company, not the man... :shrug:
Well, yes, it's the user that chooses the product, hopefully not because of the individual who's running a company, but because it's the best choice for him.
All in good fun. I don't recall any cries of Koolaid back when there was the VHS-Beta battles, but maybe that's before Jim Jones, or there weren't so many accusations of being fanbois, etc.
But I also recall that you have 0 Apple products, and are somewhat disinclined towards the bliss of owning some..... oh, wait,..... I am sensing the vibrations from Cupertino now, and I must go and pay homage in my shrine devoted to St. Steve ..........