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DIRECTV and Tivo to Launch new HD DVR in 2010

Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by Tom Robertson, Sep 3, 2008.

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  1. bonscott87

    bonscott87 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '07

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    Have no idea where you are getting your numbers.

    First off, there are (according to Tivo as of July 31st, 2nd quarter earnings call) there were less then 1.9 million DirecTivo subscriptions left and dropping by nearly 200K (and increasing) a quarter. Assuming those number hold there may be only around 1 million DirecTivo subs by the time this new HD DirecTivo box makes the market and that assumes end of 2009. And in that 1.9 million Tivo also counts all their Comcast Tivo subs as they don't separate out DirecTV any more. So it's probably more like 1.8 or 1.7 million I'd guess.

    And guess what, most of us on this very forum count in that number. Heck, I have an HR20 and an HR21 but I still have an old SD DirecTivo on the account. Thus I count in that 1.9 million.

    And I have no idea where you get the idea that these subs "refuse" to get the HD DirecTV DVR. Nearly 200K a quarter get deactivated but that doesn't mean they are leaving. Yet DirecTV's churn numbers are at historic lows and they keep on growing. So the leap you make in that statement doesn't really jive with the bottom line.

    And now nearly half of all DirecTV subs (8 million) either have HD and/or DVR. So you can speculate that most people get a DVR and on the low side you can say at least 5-6 million of DirecTV 18 million have the DirecTV DVR, under 1.9 have a DirecTivo and many of those subs cross so the DirecTV DVR numbers are probably higher. R15's have been off commitment going on 2 years now. And the first HR20 subs have been coming off commitment for a couple months now. Yet churn is down, sub growth up.

    What it all means to this thread I don't know but there are the numbers.

    So to me DirecTV doesn't need Tivo at all, they could have kept going their own way. The only reason they do anything is for *money*. This deal most likely is more to keep access to the Tivo patents and keep from being sued in the meantime. And I guess why not let Tivo put out a new Tivo box so long as it doesn't cost DirecTV anything in the end. Maybe they'll make a bit of money to boot.
     
  2. Doug Brott

    Doug Brott Lifetime Achiever DBSTalk Club

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    [​IMG]

    Sorry Ken, couldn't resist :p
     

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  3. gregjones

    gregjones Hall Of Fame

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    Yes, but the speculation isn't particularly obvious. Has Comcast killed all other DVRs now that they have a Tivo option? Because if it is so obvious that no company would support two, they should have by now.

    It is just as likely to think that DirecTV got a good deal from Tivo to get a vocal minority of users off their back. If they got the chance to have a press release announcing a Tivo box at some point in the future without much cost to them, what is the harm? Let's see, it doesn't interfere with the status quo and it calms down a group of current customers.

    DirecTV already had a single third-party vendor for DVRs at one point. They abandoned it. While a return to a Tivo-only world is possible, at this point it is not at all likely. Even if it happens, it will be a number of years down the road.
     
  4. RCY

    RCY Godfather

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    Are your sources the same ones that said there was not going to be a HD DirectTivo? :) I'm sure they're telling you the truth as they currently understand it to be. Maybe corporate has other plans they aren't disclosing to the troops. Not sure why Ken's supposition is considered so outrageous...not saying it's true, but certainly not worthy of ridicule.
     
  5. Doug Brott

    Doug Brott Lifetime Achiever DBSTalk Club

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    I'm sure Ken's cool with it :) .. Clearly the two of us disagree on this matter ..
     
  6. carl6

    carl6 Moderator Staff Member DBSTalk Club

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    We have absolutely no idea what the new DirecTivo unit might or might not offer. Of the three you list, my guess would be:

    1. Probable.
    2. HR series will have MRV long before the new box shows up. Actual transfering of content (moving files) won't happen.
    3. Not going to happen due to copy protection and industry requirements.

    Carl
     
  7. Ken S

    Ken S RIP

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    Let me guess...someone at DirecTV leaked you their new design for install trucks?
     
  8. Ken S

    Ken S RIP

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    gregjones,

    I'll stand by my prediction. We'll just have to wait and see.
     
  9. Ken S

    Ken S RIP

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    I'm absolutely fine with it...this is all about entertainment isn't it?

    If I'm wrong I hope reminds me of it...and I'll make sure and do the same.

    Of course a year from now we may be talking about why DirecTV isn't offering a DVR with virtual unlimited storage space.
     
  10. Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    Ouch! Zing! Boom!

    But seriously.

    What we have is one press release. We know more about creatures who lived 65 million years ago than we know about what will happen 18 months from now.

    For all anyone knows, this could end up to be total vaporware, or DIRECTV could start using more Tivo-patented features in its HR2x DVRs, or buy the company completely and brand all their DVRs as Tivos, even if they really aren't.

    On the other hand, it's also possible that this could produce a device that is so superior to anything in the market now, so stable, simple and yet powerful, that there will be nothing to compete in any provider market. It's possible that even I, who hasn't missed my TiVo a single minute since upgrading to an HR20-700 in September, 2006... will be so blown away that I won't hesitate to replace every DVR in my home with new ones.

    {Possibilities for the future} == ∞.
    {Knowledge of the future} == 0.

    I think that says it all.
     
  11. gregjones

    gregjones Hall Of Fame

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    This was a left-field announcement that nobody saw coming. This seems to be due to the fact that Tivo offered terms significantly different than they had before. All evidence points to this being the case.

    Many of us said it would never happen. We should have said it will never happen unless Tivo pretty much gives it away. It appears they did.

    The ridicule is mostly around the assumption by many that the new deal for Tivo spells the pending demise of the HR2x development. There is no reason to assume this and quite a lot of reasons to assume this is not the case.
     
  12. ATARI

    ATARI Hall Of Fame

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    Then might as well close the thread. ;)

    In which case there will be www.NewTiVo4DirecTV.com within a week.
     
  13. Ken S

    Ken S RIP

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    There is plenty of reason to see this as a distinct possibility. You don't agree that's fine. I don't agree with your reasoning.

    What has changed since Tivo was dumped by DirecTV...hmm...I know the controlling stake in DirecTV changed. That may have had as much to do with this as anything.

    Or maybe not.

    Hey...anyone want to buy the Brott/Sweet globe I found?

    [​IMG]

    and one more because it's almost 5 and I've spent the better part of the day on a conference call.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. Ken S

    Ken S RIP

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    gregjones,

    I'm not sure on that. The release seemed to indicate that Tivo was going to be making more this time around. Of course, that could be puffery as much as the stuff about them keeping the existing line of receivers.
     
  15. Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    Bang, zoom, zoink! Oh, my friend Ken is sharp as a microtome blade today. I consider myself properly dressed down. Forgive me, as I'm not as witty as you. I can simply say...

     
  16. Ken S

    Ken S RIP

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    Whoa...Shakespeare! I love it...

    This wasn't big Bill, but may apply

    "Don't be afraid to go out on a limb. That's where the fruit is."

    Doug and Stuart...just to be certain...this is all done in good fun...no offense whatsoever is intended.
     
  17. mp11

    mp11 AllStar

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  18. t_h

    t_h Icon

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    Apparently not. If they could, they would have. This entails considerable risk and considerable expense. Obviously they anticipate a significant loss of business or a significant upside to this that will offset the risk and cost.

    There ya go. You're getting it.

    Directv could have simply paid royalties to tivo and gotten all of that, with no customer confusion, no risk, and probably quite a bit lower cost.

    Do you have any inkling of how much it would cost just to train the installers and customer service people, the ill will created in the HR development and marketing teams, etc?

    As far as Directv just swooping up Tivo, I dont think they want to be bought. In fact, I think their business model suggests that Comcast and Directv will go away in 5-8 years.
     
  19. CJTE

    CJTE Hall Of Fame

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    DIRECTV and Tivo to Launch new HD DVR in 2H 2009
    I Believe

    DirecTVs primary motive for the re-partnership with Tivo was to subdue possible future legal complications. Making all the tivo owners happy, just a nice plus.

    DirecTV told us that they were severing ties, and therefore thats we believed, and thats why the Moderators here told everyone not to expect this.

    I have NO idea about OTA capabilities, but I would like to assume it will have built in tuners.

    The HDDVR line is far from obsolete. While some of your hardware may be older, its constantly getting new software/features (upgrades).

    The Tivo box will once again be designed and developed by... Tivo!
    I cant comment much on weather features will be watered down, but if there are features disabled/removed, remember it may not necesarily be the choice of DirecTV, but rather, Tivo not including those features.

    It will cost more to own/lease a Tivo.

    The HD Tivo will be an alternative choice for customers, and there will be a cost to that choice.

    The code for the Tivo unit, as with before, will be maintained by Tivo. While the DirecTV-based units are being devved in-house (versus NDS)

    Offering customers more choices is never a bad idea. BUT, it may be more confusing, atleast, for a little while.

    That one made me :lol:
    Tivos have to call home to Tivo (unless you hack them), whether they have to call, we'll have to wait and find out.

    Strong points. None of which I can answer, at the current second. We'll have to wait and see.

    Thats all for now folks. If the mods don't delete this I'll continue manana. (Sorry guys)
     
  20. bakerfall

    bakerfall Godfather

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    DirecTivos did not need to call home to work, they just gave you annoying messages if you didn't.
     
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