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Discussion in 'General DISH™ Discussion' started by RasputinAXP, Sep 9, 2010.
Care to bet?
As I told the other guy three months ago ... this is not a gambling forum.
Many don't realize that the take rate for NHL CI is higher than NBA LP. Many hockey fans that have Dish Network should be a bit irate, as they must have AT250 to have the Versus games. So I'd assume most of the people that are leaving either sports fans that have lost FSN (which means NHL fans at this point) or FX programming fans.
HOWEVER, realize that it most likely wouldn't take much of an increase in calls to cause a logjam in install calls. DirecTV would have had to prepare to have their supply chain in order to add additional receivers, and they need more than one week's notice.
OT but related to the current discussion, does DirecTV regularly lose customers in the quarter with probably their most popular signup offers (Sunday Ticket) ? I'd expect that to be their strongest quarter if anything.
I'm no fan of Rupert Murdoch, but he happens to have Kurt Sutter's current project, Sons of Anarchy, on FX. (I also don't ride a Harley, because something that loud ought to be a lot faster and lean a lot farther before stuff starts dragging.)
The most recent urinating match between Charlie and Murdoch sent me looking at alternatives. I could have saved some $$$ with a Sunday Ticket promo package from DirecTV (even though I rarely watch football, especially on weekends where there's MotoGP, World Superbike, or the anemic AMA series), but the real deal was with Comcast.
I had a top tier package, including two DVRs, with Dish for years, and I'll save about $50 a month with Comcast with comparable programming and On Demand from HBO, Starz, Cinemax and Showtime.
The cheap m*****f*****s won't even pay return shipping on my DVRs, and I have to go up and remove the LNB myself!
Never again, Charlie... never again.
All companies lose customers every quarter ... generally starting with the quarter after the customer's commitment has ended. The key is to keep the customer in a commitment (perhaps by extending the commitment period as part of special offers), keeping the customers who are out of commitment (and ripe for the picking) happy, and replacing the customers that do leave with new customers (most who come with 24 month commitments). Avoiding the net loss of customers.
The most expensive customers are the new ones. So financially a net loss of customers due to failure to replace all of the ones who leave isn't a completely bad thing. It is more of an embarrassment than a financial hit.
If you tell DISH the LNB is inaccessible they will not require its return.
DirecTV's newest offer isn't bad ... $29 off for one year, $14 off for the second year. Free HD for Choice Xtra or above. The 2nd year discount is especially nice as that is usually where one pays for the first year discounted price (average the cost of service out over the 24 month contract).
$42.49 per month for Choice Xtra, $47.49 for Choice Ultimate, $93.49 for Premier (over 24 months)? Not bad. Probably better than the NFLST offer that just expired (unless you wanted NFLST).
James is just saying what I also said a page or two back...
That both Dish and DirecTV have been losing customers for years whether they add channels or not and whether they lose channels or not.
I've seen no studies that could fully explain why Dish and DirecTV lost those customers.
DirecTV, however, has usually done a better job at adding more new customers than they lost... but again we don't know what this means.
As James said, some people keep flip-flopping back and forth when their contract expires to get a better perceived "new customer" offer. These people are part of the churn no matter what happens, and I don't know how you'd filter them out.
Yes, DirecTV does a good job of adding customers... but what are they doing that causes them to lose so many? IF the reason for "exodus" and "ruination" for Dish is the loss of channels due to negotiations... then why is DirecTV also losing customers and supposedly not having these negotiation problems?
People are not consistent (or sometimes rational) when talking about the hot topic of the moment.
I suspect we'll never know what effect (if any) this dispute or the Disney one has on the next quarter Dish churn because Dish has had churn in quarters where they lost no channels and even added some!
Oh, and I haven't seen any DirecTV trucks in my neighborhood... so does that mean DirecTV is going out of business? I mean, if Dish is losing all their customers and DirecTV is not installing them... then DirecTV must be going under too!
That's where hyperbole and extrapolating from small data samples gets you... nowhere fast.
I had a couple questions:
1. Has there been any update about this from either side of the debate?
2. When/if this gets settled, it will be an all or nothing thing right? So all the Fox channels will be restored (Fox, Fox Sports, FX, Nat Geo)? They wouldn't just bring back Fox and let the other channels permanently be gone would they?
16 days til Bucks season....
Good points you made, particularly on churn rates.
As far as your last point. True, you cannot judge based on trucks. But you can make a conjecture based on other patterns, such as install backups due to too many people wanting to sign up, and lack of inventory due to the same reason. These two things do hint that a lot of people are currently getting installs
It seems that both sides update their special websites to respond to the public banter ... but the real negotiations? No update. But I expect those in a Fox O&O market will get one soon.
Most likely all or nothing. The more Fox can bundle together, the more money they can get.
And yet DirecTV had supply problems before this issue with Fox ... we could be seeing the results of a system that was already not meeting it's demand getting hit by last minute NFLST signups (new customer offer ended Oct 6th) along with those with near zero patience on the Fox issue.
But maybe the truck will bring the equipment on Thursday.
I bet you anything D* add 100,000 + new subscribers and Dish Networks Loses 200,000 in the end of the 3rd quarter.
I'll also bet 400,000 + subscriber losses for Dish by the end of the 4th quarter.
I'll Buy your club membership even if I'm 1 number Shy. You don't even have to give me anything if I win.
1 st one to accept is who I'm betting!
If you're talking NET subscribers you should know that a gain of 100k would equal DirecTV's worst quarter for net gain in the last five years. Which just happens to be the number for the last two quarters. DirecTV adding 100k net is a bad quarter. (Gross loss runs from 664k to 950k over the last five years.) A net loss of 200k for DISH is off the charts.
In any case, this is still not a gambling forum.
I'm guessing the net numbers won't be all that different from any other quarter with negotiation problems on one side or the other.
With so many NHL & NBA games on the FSN RSN's D* will gain several more subs. Fans of those teams don't want to have to go to a bar to see their team...I feel E* will lose and lose badly in this war.
Well, I do know one thing...when I asked for an install time with Dish late last week they offered to be at my house that day.
Then I discovered this problem and canceled out. This reminds me too much of why I left, but Charlie still has some programming that DirecTV doesn't...so I"ll give him another try after this latest dust up settles.
I'm not talking about Gross, Net is what counts, The real Over all number! Those are the ones keeping the lights on.
100,000 might be a bad quarter in your eyes, But the company already has over 18.6 Million customers. For a company that adds 400,000+ new customers every year is a Huge acheivement in a business that over 15 years old.
If Dish lost 90,000 last quarter, and I add 100,000, thats 190,000 more customers over you I added.
Down play what you want, But fact is any number adding subs is better then losing them.
And with Charlie and his games with the networks over and over, customers aren't going to keep putting up with it.
Its not gambling, I'm not taking anything in return.:eek2:
NHL & NBA backs Fox.... http://bit.ly/d0uQYu
This can't be good for Charlie if both leagues affected by the dispute are supporting the other side.... I personally know 10 people who have dropped E* in the last few days for D* or cable. Most of them did not do it for pro sports, but for college hockey.