Disney+ has around 40 million US subscribers

Discussion in 'Internet Streaming Services' started by techguy88, Feb 24, 2021.

  1. techguy88

    techguy88 Well-Known Member

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    Report: 40% of Disney+ Subscribers are in the U.S.

    Interesting information about Disney+'s domestic subscriber numbers. Puts subscriber numbers into perspective in regards to just United States subscribers.

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    Sources: Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, HBO Max, Peacock
    Note: Amazon's number is from Statista using 2019 numbers. HBO Max's full breakdown is provided since the industry is measuring HBO Max's success based off its Total Activations metric meanwhile AT&T uses the combined HBO Max + HBO number as the metric of meeting/exceeding subscriber projections.

    HBO Max's 37.7 million doesn't look so bad in this context just their activation number is low. At least AT&T still gets money from the 20.5 million who haven't activated their HBO Max benefit. Although AT&T's focus is most likely on launching in Latin America, growing the total subscriber base and getting its Fiber & Wireless customers on tiers that include HBO Max and activate the service.

    Peacock is really in a tight spot with 11.3 million active users since its business model relies on a sizable active base to make the two AVOD tiers work (especially the free one.)
     
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  2. crkeehn

    crkeehn Godfather

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    How current are the Disney Plus figures. Since late last year, Disney Plus, ESPN+ and Hulu basic have been included on some of the Verizon Wireless unlimited packages including Play More and Get More. Although one is carried as a subscriber, you're not paying directly for the service. Between the initial Verizon year long trial and the current offer, I have not yet had to pay for Disney Plus.
     
  3. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    Based on the last time Netflix broke out sub numbers for Canada alone, it's reasonable to estimate that figure is about 7 million now. Which would leave Netflix with about 67 million US subs.

    Meanwhile, it's interesting that HBO/HBO Max is slightly ahead of Disney+, which itself is right about tied with Hulu here in the US. It seems like Disney+ is hyped online like it's nearly on the same level as Netflix when it's well behind, duking it out with HBO Max and Hulu for #3.

    Wonder if we'll ever see Hulu absorbed into Disney+, like the adult-focused Star content hub is part of Disney+ in other countries? If a few years, next-day access to NBC shows, as well as a lot of those series' past seasons, will leave Hulu and become exclusive to Peacock (assuming it survives). I have no idea how long Fox will continue licensing next-day access to current shows to Hulu. Perhaps at some point, Disney decides to invest less in Hulu's adult-focused programming, shrink it down a bit, and just make it another content hub inside Disney+ (with a higher base price).

    It's almost easy to forget about Prime Video being the #2 service. I wonder how many of the 53.3 million accounts that are entitled to it (almost all of them because they subscribe to the broader Amazon Prime package) actually use Prime Video even once a month?

    I doubt all the major streamers can survive long-term. Peacock, Paramount+ and discovery+ look the shakiest to me. I doubt ViacomCBS and NBCU could merge, given they own competing, major broadcast networks along with several of those networks' largest affiliate stations. But it may not be out of the question for those two media arms to form a Hulu-style streaming joint venture to pool their resources into one bigger SVOD.

    Another combination that's been touted is WarnerMedia + NBCU. Perhaps AT&T and Comcast both decide to sell off their media arms to form an even bigger HBO Max that absorbs all the Peacock content. Although I suppose the same could happen with WarnerMedia and ViacomCBS. HBO would finally absorb its old premium rival Showtime.
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021
  4. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    I hope Peacock survives and becomes a pattern for other small services. Something for free, more content for a reasonable price, no commercials for a higher price. I'd like to see at least the broadcast network services follow that pattern.
     
  5. techguy88

    techguy88 Well-Known Member

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    The hype mainly comes from global subscriber numbers and how quickly Disney+ is growing to achieve them. Disney+ has 94.9 million global subscribers while Netflix has 203 million global subscribers. HBO Max gets criticized about its domestic subscribers mainly due to the launch (brand confusion, initial lack of availability on Roku & Amazon) plus how it measures subscribers. The industry is mainly focusing on the activation metric to determine success for HBO Max.

    Depends if Fox wants to enter the streaming wars outside of Fox Nation. Since they don't own the studios producing the bulk of their content on the Fox network I would guess they would continue partnering with an existing streamer. Plus they are more focused in the AVOD market with Tubi.

    There is three reasons I think as why Disney will leave Disney+ and Hulu as separate apps & services at least for a few years.
    • Comcast still holds a 33% ownership stake and the earliest Disney can buy that stake is 2024. Any value that is added to Hulu (i.e. international expansion) will cause Disney to pay Comcast more. Disney owns the Star brand (by virtue of their acquisition of 20th Century Fox) so they can do whatever they want with that brand.
    • In Latin America, Star will be its own app called Star+ this version has all of Star plus sports content. Disney is putting ESPN+ content inside the Hulu app so subscribers of both can watch content from 1 app starting next year.
    • Hulu currently has an ARPU of $13.51 for only its SVOD services mainly due to higher per-sub advertising revenue. Disney+'s ARPU is in a decline because of the Disney+ Hotstar combo in India & Indonesia. Q4 2020 Disney+'s ARPU was $4.03, previously was $5.56. ESPN+ has an ARPU of $4.48.
    Disney wouldn't want to hurt Hulu's ARPU and I don't think Disney wants to introduce ads into Disney+. The price increases Disney made during this quarter should help Disney+'s ARPU.

    I like Peacock and think it has a good model lot of potential. However I don't feel Comcast is supporting that platform enough in its early years unlike the others. AT&T's WarnerMedia has been making consistent updates to HBO Max on the technical side in the new user interface, starting to add 4K HDR support, be able to remove/clear currently watching section, etc. ViacomCBS expanded CBS All Access in preparation for Paramount+'s launch. The library of movies and shows are good but to me it is lacking in originals. In my opinion Comcast needs to really commit to Peacock and a good start would be adding features they revealed at the investor day presentation and expand their original programming.

    ViacomCBS has a similar strategy but they are keeping their apps separate. PlutoTV for those who want a free AVOD experience with live channels, some that will upsell Paramount+ and Showtime. Paramount+ acts as the service for the widest audience while Showtime & BET+ are positioned as premium services for different markets. The customer can mix and match how they see fit which I think is good. From what ViacomCBS showcased Paramount+ would be the one I keep year around but get Showtime only when they have an original I want to watch lol.
     
  6. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    Networks typically have full in-season stacking rights these days for the shows they broadcast (and stacking for the most recent 5 eps has been the minimum standard for years now). So Fox can stream their current season stuff wherever they want. It's just the past seasons they don't have control over (assuming that they don't own them, which is often the case now). In addition to Hulu, they already put their current season eps inside the Fox Now app, with some stuff free for everyone and other stuff locked only for cable-authenticated paying subscribers.

    Perhaps they might want to eventually launch a DTC pay service that included live streams of local Fox stations plus FS1 and FS2 and they would make in-season access to Fox series exclusive to that service, yanking them from Hulu. (If/when the cable bundle truly unravels, that may be necessary.) Or maybe they follow in the path of The CW and just make in-season on-demand access to Fox shows free (with ads) for everyone by putting them all in Tubi. Although in that case, why not further monetize them by continuing to license them to Hulu too? (Hulu subs would find some value in having that content remain within that app, especially Hulu ad-free subs.)

    Yeah, we probably won't see Hulu folded into D+ anytime soon, if ever. Doing so would be kind of unwieldy, given that Hulu has ads and also offers optional live cable TV and premium add-ons. In fact, back before D+ launched, I assumed that they might offer it as an optional add-on inside Hulu (rather than the other way around). But that doesn't seem likely now either.

    BTW, I'm pretty sure that Disney can buy out Comcast's remaining stake in Hulu any time before 2024 if both sides agree to it. It's just that 2024 is the soonest that either side can compel the other to buy/sell.

    I spent a few minutes yesterday considering getting in on that deal to get Paramount+ for one year, ad-free, for just $50. Yesterday was the last day you could do it. (The deal was actually for CBS AA but would carry over to P+.) That comes out to only about $4 per month for quite a bit of ad-free content, including some new originals in 4K HDR. But as I looked again at the stuff that P+ offers, and the new series and movies it will launch in the coming months, I just didn't see much there that appealed to me. I'd definitely be more apt to keep Showtime for several months out of the year than P+. For the $50, I decided I'd much rather spend it on 10 months of Apple TV+ or about four months each of either Hulu ad-free or Showtime.
     
  7. 1948GG

    1948GG Icon

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    And just like other services, as soon as they get a decent subscriber base, time to hike subscription fees: ~15% hike on the way, to $7.99 starting EOM March.

    Keep a lookout for their new 787 corporate jet. Boeing doesn't announce private sales in advance, but as soon as in is wheeled out of the paint shop it will be obvious.
     
  8. NashGuy

    NashGuy Well-Known Member

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    Given the popularity of Disney and Marvel content, and that the service is ad-free and offers 4K HDR, Dolby Vision and Atmos in the base price, the launch price of $6.99/mo was pretty aggressive. Based on their recent announcements, the amount of fresh original content is going to really ramp up this year. So a $1 price increase doesn't surprise me. (That said, Disney+ doesn't interest me so I don't personally care how they price it.)
     
  9. Jhon69

    Jhon69 Hall Of Fame

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    Disney+ has a little over another year to give us what they promised.I also signed on for 3 years and so far they have not delivered.
    We still don't have access to Disney's entire library.So in another year if this stays the same when my subscription is done so am I with Disney-.
     

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