DTV Now Beta Hardware Tests

Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by jborchel, Feb 13, 2019.

  1. Feb 17, 2019 #81 of 131
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    There will also be a streaming version of 'full' ESPN, though I don't know when it is supposed to arrive. While Disney+ may have "exclusive" content, the need/desire for it will be less for people who already have cable/satellite because they will get most of that content eventually on TV. Maybe the Disney films take another six months to make it there, but it'll come.
     
  2. Feb 17, 2019 #82 of 131
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    Disney is playing the long game, knowing that cable/satellite subscriptions are going to fall every year, so they want to be in a position to give those people a way to get their content.

    So why does Netflix keep going when they are losing money? They have a small operating profit, but they added far more new debt than their operating profit and if you add up over their history they've lost an 11 digit sum! If you think AT&T should throw in the towel, why don't you think Netflix should throw in the towel? Yeah, I know you think they could charge $29.99 and still grow, but if that's the case why haven't they announced that price increase? According to you, they could be massively profitable by simply raising their prices.

    BTW, that's what AT&T's CEO said he's going to do to fix Directv Now - he was talking about a price of $50 to $60 a month as where he wants to be so it can turn a profit. I suspect they will see a further decline in subscriptions when they do that, just like I would expect to see a lot of people drop Netflix if they raised their price to $29.99.
     
  3. Feb 17, 2019 #83 of 131
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    There are less than 2 million subscribers and Stephenson has talked about a price of $50 to $60 as where he wants to be for it to be profitable. That implies the breakeven price is somewhere between $40 and $50. Even if it was $49, that would be $9 a month per subscriber or $18 million a month overall. So about $200 million a year. That's a hit, but when the entertainment group is making a few billion a year they can sustain that loss while they build up the service. If nothing else, they built up an infrastructure and learned some things that will give 'Directv via IP' a better chance of success.
     
  4. Feb 17, 2019 #84 of 131
    Soccernut

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    With DIRECTV Now been an APP on streaming boxes I'm "assuming" it works out of the subscribers home, will the DIRECTV over IP box work out of the home? If it did and you could watch all subscribed channels including locals it would be an advantage or Satellite service.
     
  5. Feb 17, 2019 #85 of 131
    SledgeHammer

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    You do realize that AT&T has debt of $180B, right? Why aren't you concerned about that?

    Why would somebody sub to DirecTV Now for $50-$60? You said that nobody will pay that much for a streaming service. $50-$60 is getting close to the price of the sat service which is a better user experience.

    DirecTV Now has 1.6M subs at the current pricing. Netflix has 139M.

    I never said raise the price to $30 today. I said they are currently doing +$2 hikes every other year and can *probably* get to $30 longer term without much uproar. There are multiple streaming services that charge that much or more.

    Btw, over the past 5 yrs, Nflx +478% Dis +40% T -7%. At 10 yrs? Nflx +5451%, Dis +321% T +18%, so you're pretty much the only one who thinks Netflix is doing it wrong.
     
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  6. Feb 17, 2019 #86 of 131
    NashGuy

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    Hmm, do you have a link about the full streaming ESPN? I've read nothing about that but it would be absolutely HUGE if ESPN were to become available as a standalone streaming service. Such a development could really speed up the demise of the cable channel bundle as we've always known it.

    As for content on Disney+ making it to cable TV, I doubt it. I don't think Disney is going to devalue their new OTT service by shifting new original content for it over to the Disney Channel a few months later. We'll see.

    Theatrical films are another story, given that movies have always had various "windows" where they show up: theaters, then PPV/digital on-demand/disc, then premium cable/OTT (e.g. Disney+), then bouncing around among ad-supported outlets including broadcast networks, basic cable networks, and AVOD.
     
  7. Feb 18, 2019 #87 of 131
    JoeTheDragon

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    and when they do that cable / sat systems will drop ESPN into it's own add on pack. And they should pass on the $15-$20+ mo saving off the base rates.
     
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  8. Feb 18, 2019 #88 of 131
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like a plan. I’d suggest starting a thread dedicated to that when you do. But since the Apple TV remote has all the same controls as a DIRECTV remote I’m not sure what you didn’t find it could do. The key is knowing how to use them since skip and ffwd are the same “button” (press to skip, press and hold to ffwd) but the button itself is actually the edge of the track pad area. I know if you’ve never used those functions with the remote they don’t just pop out at you to try.

    I do think some streaming remotes don’t have ffwd and skip. Those will be more challenging.
     
  9. Feb 18, 2019 #89 of 131
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    I've posted several times that AT&T has a ridiculous amount of debt, and will be in serious trouble if interest rates rise. I sure as hell wouldn't buy their stock, but neither would I buy Netflix's at the current price.

    I don't believe any streaming service can come close to $30 a month. Streaming MVPDs like Directv Now are different, they compete with cable/satellite in offering traditional packages. What you get from Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu, CBS etc. are a different market. The reason people are "cord cutting" and leaving MVPDs (I don't consider Directv Now or Sling to be true "cord cutting" because you are getting the same thing via a different wire, and only cost less because they are willing to lose money for now to build a subscriber base) is solely due to price. A $30 streaming service comes too close to the cheapest MVPD pricing, while offering a much narrower slice of content. Its a non starter.

    Comparing historical stock prices is stupid. Something that has gone up 5000% in the past 10 years a lot further to fall if market sentiment turns against it. Netflix makes no money, so explain to me why it is worth $200 billion? The market isn't always rational, and since the rise of tech stocks in the 90s it seems there are some stocks like Netflix (or private companies like Uber) with valuations that make no sense, because they are viewed through a lens of "they will become a monopoly". Netflix is now getting competition from players who have been creating content for a century, they have no chance at becoming a monopoly.

    I'm sure back in 2008 Nokia investors crowed about the number of phones they sold each year as "proof" they were going to continue to grow the way they way had the past decade and thought about all the people in the world who didn't yet have a phone as future customers, but they gained new competition in the form of Apple and Google and couldn't adapt to it. There's no guarantee that just because Netflix has the overwhelming majority of streaming subscribers today that they always will, or that even if people still view them as the #1 player that with "must watch" content that they won't subscribe to them for a month or two a year and binge the content they want instead of subscribing year round.

    The only reason more people aren't doing that today is because many subscribe to only one or two streaming providers and they aren't charging that much. When there are a half dozen streamers with content they want - or they go insane and think they can get away with charging $30 a month - customers will take advantage of binging and lack of contracts to switch between them and Netflix's earnings will plummet. Obviously you doubt that, but why do you think people will continue subscribing 12 months out of the year when they don't have to and will have other streamers with content they want to watch?
     
  10. Feb 18, 2019 #90 of 131
    raott

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    All that is great and maybe true about those 30 and up....but it’s not true of the younger millenials and current teens. They aren’t watching “traditional packages”, and they will be the customers soon. I know, because I have one in my house. There is a sea change starting, and any company simply believing it will be status quo will be foolish.

     
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  11. Feb 18, 2019 #91 of 131
    SledgeHammer

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    You are confusing Netflix with something like HBO.

    People do that with HBO as content is more seasonal. I.e. Game Of Thrones and much more limited. Netflix drops new content every Friday. Granted, not everything they do is a gigantic hit like Bird Box.

    You also keep ignoring that Netflix is putting out big hits with A list stars. Hello! Bird Box got 50M views in its first week. If a theatrical release did that at $17/ticket = $850M. Bird Box also had Sandra Bullock. Hitmans Bodyguard had Ryan Reynolds and Sam Jackson. All the other streaming services you claim are competition star a bunch of Z list actors. The guy that mows your lawn is more famous then them. That is why people consider Netflix at a higher level then all of them and why they have the subscriber base. Netflix beat HBO in Oscar noms in case you forgot.

    No, I don't expect Netflix stock to rise another 5000%. The point is you think Netflix is doing everything wrong, when everybody else on the planet thinks they are doing it mostly right going by the stock performance. Going by your bitter hatred of the company, there is really only 2 possible explanations. Either you worked for them and got fired, or you lost a ton of money trying to short them.

    You'll also notice that Disney and Apple announcements haven't had any effect on the stock. Two companies that you claim will take a chunk of their business.

    Also, based on your logic, you should also be shorting Amazon. After all, Amazon doesn't do anything special. They're just an online store. You could spin up an online store in under an hour and sell your merch directly. All the big stores have their own sites too, so why would anybody use Amazon? You should also short Google as they don't do anything special. There are a ton of search engines and email providers and online storage companies. Heck, Microsoft does everything Google does. You should also short a few other companies like Apple (who buys iPhones anymore?) and Facebook (all those darn security issues!).

    People don't try to compete with those companies because it is extremely expensive to try to do so and they have a huge lead which in most cases is insurmountable.
     
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  12. Feb 18, 2019 #92 of 131
    tivofan2018

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    i bet they get rid of the app and charge a monthly rental fee for the box. as they miss that rental fee.
     
  13. Feb 18, 2019 #93 of 131
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    Which is why AT&T wants to get the Warner streaming service up and running - that's what they will get, not any Directv product.
     
  14. Feb 18, 2019 #94 of 131
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    As if the 50 million streams of Bird Box directly translates into anywhere NEAR 50 million people buying tickets. And at $17 per ticket? Where the hell do you live that theatres are that expensive? No wonder so many people want to wait for movies to be available on a streaming service that costs less per month than for one person to go to a movie!

    Yes, Netflix is getting A list stars, no one denys that. Which puts them on equal footing with Disney, Warner and the other movie studios. Oh, and Apple, BTW, who already has signed up some A list stars and they don't even have a product yet. There are rumors it will be free to owners of iPhones / iPads / Apple TVs (I'm skeptical about that but we'll see) you don't think that won't take some audience away from Netflix? Nothing will show up in the stock price until it shows up in Netflix's revenue/subscribers and they fail to meet analyst expectations. Wall Street can be pretty unforgiving when that happens to companies with a high P/E multiple, something Netflix really hasn't had to deal with yet. Someday they will.

    Amazon is not "just an online store". They used to be, and there was no way their stock price could be justified because the growth assumptions built into it was larger than was even possible (i.e. they could only growth into their stock price by becoming a monopoly and raising prices to improve margins) They ended up justifying their price through AWS, which is responsible for nearly all of their profit growth in the last few years. To the point where some analysts want to see them spin it off, because they think it is being held back by being part of Amazon and the two separate companies would be worth more separately than Amazon is currently.

    Netflix doesn't have a huge new business like AWS coming to justify their stock price. They have to someday turn a real profit on a cash basis. Maybe they will, eventually they won't have other people's content but that means they won't have to pay for it - they will basically be another big studio like Disney or Warner at that point, without the other businesses (music, sports networks etc.) they own. If they can make more from streaming than the studios make from ticket sales + streaming they would be worth more.
     
  15. Feb 18, 2019 #95 of 131
    Rich

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    I subscribe to ESPN+ and have ESPN on my D* account. There is content on ESPN+ that is not shown on the D* version. Content that I really enjoy. ESPN+ is a streaming service. I would happily pay 30 bucks a month for NetFlix, BTW.

    Rich
     
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  16. Feb 18, 2019 #96 of 131
    SledgeHammer

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    I live in Southern California. Ah... now I see why your perspective on things is all out of wack. You live in the middle of nowhere. Yes, movie tickets in the big city are $14 to $17 here if you go to a movie at prime time. If I wanted to take the pickup to the drive in on a sunday morning and sit on the hood, yeah, I guess it might be cheaper ;).

    You must have seen different news then me. Apple's service is going to be a glorified provider aggregator with SOME original content (likely PG content) thrown in at SOME point. They also aren't going to carry Netflix and HBO at this point, so why would anyone want it when they can just stick with Roku and get all the providers? Is your precious Disney going to be on it? What about Warner? Aren't they starting their own services? You just said so. Why would they want to sign a deal with Apple to take 30% of the profits when they could sign up with Netflix for a lot less then that and get 139M pairs of eyeballs on day one?

    And if they do end up getting Netflix... why, that sounds like even more eyeballs for Netflix, doesn't it?

    Tim Cook has in general been a disaster for Apple. He is no innovator like Steve Jobs. He's become a follower. I have an iPhone 6 and its pretty much exactly the same as the current iPhone. Oh... I mean, except for the awesome notch.

    Interesting theory you've got there. But a highly flawed one. Amazon's sales growth estimate is 18% for this year and 18% for next year. Netflix's sale growth estimates are 28% for this year and 24% for next year.

    Another one of your highly flawed theories is that all of these standalone streaming services will succeed. When quite a few have already failed. I guess you forgot about when NBC Universal tried to launch a premium streaming service? It went out of business after about 1 yr. I guess you also forgot about the Yahoo one. And the Redbox one. And the Blockbuster one.
     
  17. Feb 18, 2019 #97 of 131
    James Long

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    I thought that was your theory? Or does "no one will ever drop their subscription" and "it will never fail" only apply you your precious Netflix? :D
     
  18. Feb 18, 2019 #98 of 131
    Rich

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    I know how the ATV remote works. But others may not, we should talk about that too. Let's wait till I start the thread. I'm gonna take a look at the cable replacement services as soon as the season starts, then I'll have a better feel for what I can't do with the streaming remotes.

    I showed the $106 D* monthly bill to my wife the other day. Pretty big jump from $23 to $106. She didn't think that was too bad but then I told her at least $60 in credits was gonna go away in a month or so. Now she's concerned. That's a lot of money for one channel. For a channel I have no interest in.

    Rich
     
  19. Feb 18, 2019 #99 of 131
    Rich

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    Agreed. I have one of those at home too. She has very little interest in TV sets. Give her a laptop, iPad and an iPhone and she's happy. Things are surely gonna change. And children will force that change.

    Rich
     
  20. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    They are gonna do what they always do, suck every nickel and dime out of our pockets that they can.

    Rich
     

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