How long do we think the satellite service will last?

Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by TDK1044, Jan 25, 2018.

  1. slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    It depends on rain intensity, there's no way to tell how long. Sometimes SD may not drop at all, but with supercells I've seen SD disappear only seconds after HD.

    Once I had a steady snow/ice mixture falling on my dish slowly blocking signal, so I was able to observe the process in slow motion. HD(Ka) was fine until signal drops to the low 20s. At that point it started flaking out and disappeared entirely below 19. When HD dropped SD(Ku) was about 70. It flaked out and disappeared in the mid 40s (you lose SD at a higher signal level than HD because it uses less error correction and therefore has a higher minimum SNR)
     
  2. NashGuy

    NashGuy Active Member

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    That's true with current satellite internet. But four different companies, including Elon Musk's SpaceX, have plans to launch a constellation of low-earth-orbit internet satellites that will offer service with latency comparable to cable. SpaceX launches their first two such satellites, as demo test units, tomorrow morning. Launch will probably be live on YouTube.
     
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  3. CraigerM

    CraigerM Well-Known Member

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  4. Brian Hanasky

    Brian Hanasky Godfather

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    Yea this was added to the Android beta a while ago. Nice touch. The DVR is still a work in progress though. Can't record only new episodes. Often I get an error message when scheduling recording on Chrome and Android. Roku beta (not DVR just beta) just released a few weeks ago. Directv Now is huge steps behind other OTT providers. The biggest thing they can boast about is their channel lineup as they have the complete channels list that each of the other OTT service is missing in some combination.
     
  5. CraigerM

    CraigerM Well-Known Member

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  6. slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting comment in there I quoted below. I keep saying that streaming MVPD plans at current prices is a money losing proposition but some refuse to believe it. All the companies offering it like Dish, Directv, PSVue, etc. are willing to do it / have no choice but to do it because now is the time build market share. They will need scale to make better deals - which some providers like Directv & Dish have (or will have when they're able to cover everything under a single contract) and others like PSVue do not. Profit will have to come later (sort of like Amazon has been doing for the past 20 years) once the market shakes out.

    I posted in another thread how my local cable company (Mediacom, which has under a million subscribers) is now charging me $11 a month for local channels, and the cable lobbying group says that the average for smaller providers. They expect those rates to go up by 88% by 2020, to an average of $19 per subscriber per month!! If you don't have scale you have no leverage in negotiations against big companies like Sinclair (who is threatening to become even bigger thanks to their overly cozy relationship with the new FCC commissioner who I'm to bet goes to work for them or joins their board when he leaves the FCC) Let alone against even bigger companies like Disney.

     
  7. CraigerM

    CraigerM Well-Known Member

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    I know AT&T has sent mixed signals on DTV NOW that it is not a replacement for DTV but what if they have changed their minds and they see DTV NOW not for cord cutters but as their main TV service but its not ready to do that just yet. Maybe that is why they said 2020 for DTV NOW to be the main platform not just the 5g deployment. This is what Stephenson said in their last quarterly report:

    AT&T's (T) CEO Randall Stephenson on Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha

    Randall Stephenson:

    "Okay, Amir, I'll go first. I'll talk a bit about the video industry and how we think about it. But since the day we bought DIRECTV, we assume that traditional linear video would be in a declining mode since kind of the nature of it, OTT and the ability to consume video on mobile devices, we believe would be the trend and the way where things went, we wanted to be in the leadership position and facilitating that kind of consumption of premium video on mobile devices. And we have been in the leadership position in that.

    We have made an objective to ensure that we can transition. We run these transitions all the time, right? When you have technology transitions or business model transitions whether it's fixed phone service to mobile, whether it's a private line kind of service for business to VPN, whether it's -- you can kind of go down the list of whether it's feature phones to smartphones, we run these transitions and we think we're pretty good at it.

    As it relates to video, we are standing up a video product that we are convinced will give us growth in the video platform for the next few years, and that's our DIRECTV NOW. So, as traditional linear declines, DIRECTV NOW, we think can offset that and not only that, but our traditional linear video will be repurposed.

    You heard me talk about our next-gen platform that is home centric, a very thin client into the home. That will actually drive cost structure of the traditional video product down so that you could preserve margins in the traditional linear video as you grow in the over-the-top applications and video services. So, we're very bullish on video.

    As we look at the numbers, our consumers are consuming more value than they used to, not less. They're consuming it on different devices. They're not just consuming it in their home. They're consuming it on tablets and smartphones, and that's where we want to be. And so we're rather bullish on that, Amir."
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  8. mjwagner

    mjwagner Icon

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    I have no doubt that DirecTV loses money on their Now subscribers, they have a bloated cost structure to support. That quote says absolutely nothing about the other providers in that space, particularly the pure OTT players.
     
  9. crkeehn

    crkeehn Godfather

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    ATT has been pushing customers in U-verse areas to DirecTV, rather than U-Verse. That would certainly explain why the U-Verse penetration is so low. They will provide U-Verse TV but prefer to provide DirecTv.

    This even extends to the att.com website. I currently have ATT 1000 (once U-Verse Gigapower) and trying to get a quote for U-Verse television is very difficult. It keeps steering me to DirecTv.
     
  10. slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    What is Directv's "bloated cost structure"? I hope you're not going to claim the satellites are expensive, because amortized for their lifetime over all of Directv's satellite customers they cost little more than 50 cents per subscriber per month. Even if Directv lost half their satellite customers in a few years that's still only a buck a month to maintain the satellite fleet and build/launch new ones as needed. The infrastructure to stream video to millions of customers isn't free, either.

    Centurylink just announced they are dropping their OTT streaming "beta" they began offering a year ago. Since they already have a deal to resell Directv satellite service, I'm willing to bet they will either offer Directv Now or the "third" version of Directv that's coming (i.e. like Uverse delivered over a provider's internal network instead of over the internet, so they don't need separate streaming contracts for every channel and could offer the "full" Directv including NFLST)
     
  11. CraigerM

    CraigerM Well-Known Member

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    Verizon was going to get rid of its QAM/IPTV and replace it with a full IPTV service but decided to go OTT instead.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  12. P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    Should the thread be renamed to "ATT/DTV is going OTT/IPTV" ?
     
  13. slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    Probably because they wanted to be able to offer it nationwide instead of being limited to where Verizon provides service, to get the scale I was talking about.
     
  14. slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    No, because they're not. They may start selling OTT/IPTV in preference to satellite down the road, but "going OTT/IPTV" would imply they are getting rid of satellite.
     
  15. P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    last weeks posts here have nothing to do with sat longevity
     
  16. NashGuy

    NashGuy Active Member

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    Yes, seems likely that Centurylink may extend their relationship with AT&T by offering DTV Now given that their similar OTT service is dying next month.

    I've seen you speculate more than once that the upcoming DTV service, slated to launch later this year, will be managed IPTV over AT&T's own internal network. But AT&T's CEO has more than once stated that's not the case. Here's a remark he made on their quarterly call last month (just after talking up recent performance of DTV Now):

    And so then before year end, we plan to launch in the next-gen product in a home-centric configuration with a very thin hardware client. And just think about it this way, it's a very small, inexpensive streaming device plugged into your TV and then you connect it to any broadband service.

    Here he is speaking about the same upcoming "home-centric" streaming version of DTV at a Goldman Sachs conference last Sept. 12:

    We will be ambivalent as to whose broadband the television service traverses. And so, a software-based platform, we are delivering that will not require a satellite dish on the roof, and a very thin client in the home, rather than a big set-top-box...

    AT&T already has a managed IPTV product in Uverse TV and it's practically deprecated at this point. AT&T sees managed IPTV as yesterday's technology. They see the future of video as purely OTT -- one unified platform driving all viewing on any screen, anywhere. As they continue to make gains in edge computing and software-defined cloud-based networks, I imagine the performance of HD and 4K HDR video via OTT streams will improve, particularly for those viewers who are watching through an AT&T connection. The only real difference I imagine we may see for OTT viewers connected via AT&T versus a competitor's home broadband connection is that AT&T may provision multicast streams of the most popular linear TV channels over their own network, to cut down on video traffic congestion. It's simple enough to make the thin client STB for the forthcoming service multicast-compatible.

    As for the content provider contracts for this new service (if it is, in fact, really a new service and not just an extension of the DTV Now brand), that will all work itself out in time. But the vision is for it to support everything that satellite currently offers. From the same GS conference last Sept:

    Interviewer: You see that product as being able to support if the consumer wanted it what is essentially similar to what the full featured satellite product has today including some of the premium concept like SUNDAY TICKET?

    AT&T CEO
    : Oh, yes, ultimately without a doubt. In fact, even including 4K ultra high definition TV is on the roadmap for doing this. And so, yes, it will be a full spectrum of services that we think we can ultimately provision on this platform.
     
  17. CTJon

    CTJon Godfather

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    AT&T has a long, long way to go before DirecTVNow is a truly competitive product. I lacks DVR which is coming I guess - doesn't have all the stations, doesn't have the regional sports networks etc. and it requires you to own a box of some sort to use.
    And you need reliable high speed internet.
     
  18. slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    What he's talking about there is no different than Directv Now except they provide you with set tops (and probably charge you monthly for them) If that's what he has been talking about all along, then consider me underwhelmed.

    The reason they are dumping Uverse is because they had terrible contracts and were paying $14/customer/month more than they pay for an equivalent Directv satellite package. Plus they want to do like Verizon and sell off their copper, but they gotta get the Uverse TV customers off it first.
     
  19. NashGuy

    NashGuy Active Member

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    Well, you don't know if that's true or not. Nor do I. Could be true. It could be that this "new" thing he's talking about is exactly the same as DTV Now -- same branding, same feature set, same channel packages, same (missing) locals, same pricing, etc. -- but with an AT&T-branded dedicated STB that they'll sell or rent to you for accessing DTV Now (along with whatever other OTT services that are supported by Android TV). That would essentially be no different than what DISH has done by rolling out their AirTV Player for use with Sling TV (a product that hasn't exactly set sales records). So yes, if that's all AT&T is going to do, I'll be underwhelmed too.

    But I don't think that will be the case. The way the CEO keeps talking it up and saying how it will be leveraged to ultimately offer the full spectrum of DTV services across the full spectrum of users, including those folks who want multi-room viewing with 4K, all the channels, Sunday Ticket, etc., it definitely sounds like they have more in mind for this coming initiative than just "we're going to offer our own box for DTV Now as an alternative to using a Roku".
     
  20. Janice805

    Janice805 Legend

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    OK, now I'm confused. I'm a 20-year Direct TV customer and today I signed up for DIRECT TV NOW (just to try) for $10 x month. I don't find their navigation very easy. I also don't understand why I cannot get ALL of my network programs when they have a library of network programs. What the heck am I missing? For example: ABC (General Hospital) = NONE, NBC (Days of our Lives) = NONE, CBS (Young and the Restless is there but not the Bold and the Beautiful). Now I know you guys aren't interested in these shows but what's happening? When I tried PS Vue about 6 months ago, I could watch everything. What's up with Direct TV Now ??? I mean so far after just one hour I'm regretting it.
     

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