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Discussion in 'DIRECTV Programming' started by ssm06, Jan 2, 2013.
It's humorous that you believe that. Charlie is your white knight.
It is about total expense. People tolerate the current system because of two reasons: 1) no other alternative has been available before and 2) cost wasn't unreasonable. Both of these are changing in big ways. I think I read the DTV price increase we are about to receive is driven by an 8% increase in carriage fees. That's obscene for a single year increase.
Cable/sat could go away and OTA would keep right on doing what it's always done. Probably charge their advertisers a bit more to make up for the small lost carriage fees. People will continue to use it because they consider the ad hassle to be reasonable for the free program they are getting; just like it's always been.
I would pay a reasonable amount for the programs I want without ads. Even current OTA programs. This is really no different than a movie. How many movies these days end up on OTA? Very few. And those that do are ancient. Every program (or season for series) has a value based on content quality, age, and consumer interest. If it can't be profitable then it shouldn't exist.
It's really pointless to argue against this direction. It will happen - only a matter of when. The music industry transformed despite it's resistance.
Another thing happening in music (and books too) is that the new paradigm is cutting out much of the fat middleman. More of the money goes to the content creator and that's a good thing. The record labels used to be what cable/sat is today - the gatekeepers. Gouging as a distributor/retailer via exclusivity is becoming obsolete.
As far as generating interest for things... iTunes lets you listen to the first 90 seconds of a song (which is about 33% of most songs). Let people watch 25% of any program without paying. 25% of an entire season for series.
Let's not forget Julia Benson
I don't expect any of them to refuse to sell their product through cable/sat just as I don't expect them to stop Blu-Ray or DVDs. The fact is they will use whatever and as many distribution channels as they can to gain max profit.
All movies go through many or all of the following steps for distribution:
Movie Theater - PPV
Sat/cable - On Demand (limited multiple views)
Blu-Ray/DVD Purchase (multiple views forever)
Blu-Ray/DVD Rental (limited multiple views)
Sat/cable Premium/Movie Channels (pay via subscription, multiple views but not unlimited*)
Internet Purchase (multiple views forever)
Internet Rental (limited multiple views)
Sat/cable non-premium channels (pay via cheaper subscription, multiple views but not unlimited*)
OTA (multiple views but not unlimited)
* only as long as it is retained on the DVR (legally)
The top 5 are pretty much guaranteed for anything of reasonable quality. The rest are not (yet). But Internet is coming on strong.
Random sample of recent movies as of today on iTunes and/or Vudu:
Avatar - Purchase but not Rental
Total Recall - Purchase or Rental
Battleship - Purchase or Rental
Dark Knight Rises - Purchase or Rental
Brave - Purchase or Rental
We are very close to nearly every movie having internet purchase and rental.
The content creators could care less about a given distribution channel - they will leverage them all.
The paradigm will be shifted by consumers. It's already well on its way. Remember Blockbuster? Blu-Ray hasn't been a smashing success partly because people have moved on from physical mediums (except for keeping highly valued content).
We're just waiting for the next big thing to blow the dam (Apple?) and release "lesser" content this way. The cracks are already numerous and the current distribution channels are painfully aware (as evidence by all the internet tie-ins going on).
That is OUR increase.
DTVs increase in carriage fees is 8%. They are absorbing 3.5%.
How long will that continue?
That's what providers are asking themselves, but a la carte will play no role.
By all means, let us not discuss it because you have decided how it all will work. good for you.
All the comparisons to music and books (and even movies) are doubtful because they were ALWAYS individual entities. Television is about series and continued programming like a baseball season.
Do you really think that everyone has time to sample every program a la iTunes? How many people do you think actually select music that way? They don't. They see it on TV. They hear it on the radio (and Pandora is just radio delivered via internet), they hear it from friends. Just like they always did.
And you think OTA will continue. Yeah, right. See a lot of antennas around, do you? People JUMPED on cable not just because of extra channels but also because they didn't need an antenna. Plus all the horror stories of obtaining digital signal in rural, suburban and urban settings. Yup, OTA will continue on....
Meanwhile, the big money is behind the current system and so are the consumers. While cable and satellite costs are going up and people are grousing, just wait until they get their internet bill when they all cut the cord and cannot get bandwidth anyway.
There is no utopia and there is little movement away from the current model.
We can discuss it all we want and it won't stop the shift.
And one can buy lots of series seasons on Blu-Ray/DVD. Even low quality ones where it raises the question of making any money on it. A season of a TV series on disc is just time-shifted. The only difference is that seasons are a longer movie broken up into chunks.
Paying for a season of anything is like paying for a song vs the entire album.
Something will trigger them to look for a program. In my family of two ~50 year old adults and an 18 year old we are not triggered by any ad on TV or hearing something on the radio. We all use a DVR exclusively and race past ads as fast as possible; it's very very rare that we will see something flying by and stop and look at it. We don't listen to the radio (or any other streaming music) (in our cars we listen to MP3 CDs with hundreds of our purchased songs on them). Nobody watches MTV or VH1 including the teenager.
I would suggest your perspective is skewed for whatever reason. My teenager - and all his friends - are the demographic that matters. He will never have a home phone line for example.
Ever seen the Reelz channel? They show movie trailers. Their web site has the same content. Doing the same for internet series would be trivial.
Then why did they invest massive amounts of money to install and operate high power HDTV transmitters? Pay for the bandwidth allocation?
You only mention cable. I see lots of DTV and Dish dishes everywhere. It's not about putting up warts. I have an OTA antenna smaller than my DTV dish.
I have no problem with OTA going away.
Your argument here is exactly why internet will win. No antenna or dish. One wire into the house that does all communications - video, phone, data. And best of all the delivery mechanism is an entirely independent service from the content. That's a combination that can't lose.
You realize your faith in consumer stickiness is misplaced, right? The only reason they are behind the current system is that it is overall the best available today. As soon as it's not they will flee like rats. Blockbuster is all I need to say.
A la carte isn't happening. People have been saying, based on nothing really, that it will happen for many years now. There is no more merit to it now than there was before.
Them please tell me how you find that music you purchase. You say you don't pay attention to any current method of finding new music. Do you have a special pipeline that the rest of us don't know about?
My teenager regularly goes browsing for music on iTunes. Then he mentions good stuff to us (we all happen to like jazz/sax). His friends also suggest things to him - probably let him listen to it on their device. He likes Piano Guys - found them on YouTube. My wife also browses for music, movies, and TV programs regularly. In other words, other than word-of-mouth, actively looking for stuff.
Seeing or hearing something passively as it goes by isn't the only way.
Not really a.la.cart that way....... I just watched it
I think a lot of the issues discussed here have to do with the difference between linear broadcasting (where the same content is delivered to many households simultaneously) with the non-linear methods like BluRay, VOD, Netflix, etc.
More and more programming is becoming available via non-linear methods. Both of our children live without ANY subscription TV service. They have cable modem service but no TV service. They watch Hulu Plus and Netflix mostly (for less than $20/month combined). This gives them movies and series, with little or no commercial interuptions. Granted, much of what they watch is content originally broadcast on linear TV, but if the linear channels whent away, the only real difference would be an increase in the monthly subscription costs and the number of embedded commercials. The only obstacle to this becoming the standard method of distribution is the lack of high speed internet access in much of the country. Once that is addressed, broadcasting as we know it will go the way of music albums and record stores.
There is, however, one kind of programming that really requires linear delivery: sports. Linear delivery over IP networks is problematic because of the router congestion it will create. That can be adderssed too, but in the near to middle term sports will be the thing that keeps broadcasting alive. As long as broadcasting exists, we will have bundles, because it is the only way to keep the more expensive to produce channels (like ESPN) reasonably priced.
let's see $20-$30 mo to rent the box and maybe even pre devices fees.
also maybe have to rent mini boxes at each tv.
And need comcast triple play also likely a very slow roll out knowing comcast.
And they still will not have all the HD feeds of HBO, MAX, SHO, STARZ, MLB EI, NHL CI, NBA LP that other cable systems have.
If programming fees accounted for 100% of your bill DirecTV would be absorbing 3.5%. The increase is 4.5% of your entire bill. Programming fees are just one part of your total bill.
Waffleswhat.cdilovemusicforum? All great non-liner ways to find music.. Just to add to your great post.
Or do like my family does and borrow from our local library. I watched a whole season of "24" that way.
We discover new music primarily via Pandora and then listen to iPods in the car.
They also show full-length movies and mini-series. I watched and very much enjoyed "Pillars of the Earth" and "World Without End". Now if Reelz was only in HD....
We live in a rural area, have a deep fringe antenna about 60' up (20' mast on top of a 2 story home), pre-amp, and antenna rotor. Beautiful, beautiful picture. Get lots of free channels. Thanks TV stations for your investment.
Another way to put it is "No industry is immune from disruptive forces.". Cable has been more resilient than most, but also the most willing to adapt (albeit at a slow pace), but they aren't immune by any means.
Oops! Yes, of course.
So what is the speculation as to how much of the 4.5% is carriage fees? Let's guess 2/3 or 3%. That means that content is around 40% of a bill. And the delivery service is around 60%.
If I look at my bill that tells me I can save a huge amount of money using internet delivery. Even if I double my internet bandwidth.