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It's official - Jay Leno is the Future of Television

Discussion in 'TV Show Talk' started by mreposter, Sep 6, 2009.

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  1. Sep 13, 2009 #81 of 223
    bicker1

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    It'll all come down to, "Where will they go?" Maybe some will find themselves stealing the affiliation of the local CBS or ABC affiliate, but that's just a shell game. For the vast majority of viewers, there is enough value in being the NBC affiliate that some broadcaster will want to be it, and that'll be enough to get NBC into every cable system, which is where the eyes-of-value are anyway.
     
  2. Sep 13, 2009 #82 of 223
    Stewart Vernon

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    Interesting... except that it was more than a few years ago when the networks actually already tried this!

    Monk premiered on USA, but ABC was airing them (Saturday nights I believe) about a season behind. I think they might have made it through 2 seasons before they decided to stop.

    Battlestar Galactica premiered on SciFi (the mini series) around 6 years or so ago... and NBC re-aired that mini, and in HD too, a couple of times about a year later.

    I also remember seeing Psych and some more BSG back during the writers' strike.

    So it was probably easy to speculate on something that had already happened :)
     
  3. Sep 13, 2009 #83 of 223
    bicker1

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    Yeah, but my outline was much more comprehensive. : )
     
  4. Sep 13, 2009 #84 of 223
    phrelin

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    USA's "Monk" was on ABC in 2002. From this Variety September 14, 2002, article:
    Now what the heck was "Push, Nevada"? Anyway, NBC then did the same thing during the writers strike. From a December 18, 2007 Zap2It article:
    I still think the affiliates are missing the boat. They should be pushing NBCU to give them the rights to broadcast on subchannels OTA feeds of cable channels where they could insert local commercials. I think there would be a reasonable audience of OTA homes interested in USA, Bravo, and maybe even Syfy. NBCU has an NBC affiliate and a Telemundo affiliate in most large urban areas that would permit at least two additional HD subchannel signals to be broadcast. That would be in the affiliates' interest instead of having cable shows shifted to prime time NBC so the network can save money even if it accepts lower audience numbers which kills the affiliates.

    In fact, if local stations collectively could compete with cable and satellite....
     
  5. Sep 13, 2009 #85 of 223
    Stewart Vernon

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    The weird thing about Monk also was... Back when ABC tried it out, ABC was airing in HD (or at least widescreen anyway)... while USA had not yet launched its HD channel. And yet people just didn't care enough for Monk to watch apparently on ABC.

    Then again, it could be that the Monk fans had already seen the shows and weren't willing to re-watch them.

    On the flip side of this... I remember a year or two ago when SciFi was re-airing some NBC shows later in the week. I think Heroes Season 1, for instance, would air on NBC on Monday then the same episode would re-air on SciFi that Friday.

    I never heard how that experiment worked, but it seems to have stopped.

    I did notice last season, though... that episodes of House on FOX would re-air on USA sometimes 1-2 weeks after the OTA debut.

    Seems like there ought to be a market the other way around. The same argument that holds for reality = cheaper than scripted... should work here as already scripted = even cheaper than reality... so they should be able to re-purpose some cable-created shows for OTA networks.
     
  6. Sep 13, 2009 #86 of 223
    mreposter

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    What if NBC were to give affiliates the 10pm slot for local news and then shifted Leno to 10:30? It might make the affiliates happy and might help solve the Conan problem at 11:30.

    phrelin - I'm surprised more local's haven't launched 24-hour real news services on a subchannel. I've seen a few that do rather wimpy weather or run some 30 minute news show in a loop for 3-4 hours at a time, but it seems like only affiliates in the largest markets have gotten serious about serving their markets this way.
     
  7. Sep 13, 2009 #87 of 223
    SayWhat?

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    ^^^^ First, I think they want Leno to be in PrimeTime, not after the news when most people turn the set off and go to bed. (Not like most here, but like most of what the audience used to be.)

    Second, the trend seems to be away from 24 hour real news. Note what Headline News has become as well as Fox News and MSNBC. They're more Springer-esque talk shows than anything else.

    I'm opposed to the same, relatively current shows being run across multiple channels in the same season. Was it really to anyone's advantage to have Warehouse 13 on a dozen channels in the same few days?

    It's one thing for older reruns in syndication to be all over the dial, but I just can't see it for current shows.
     
  8. Sep 13, 2009 #88 of 223
    mreposter

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    Longer-term, many cable channels may find themselves in a bit of a bind when the supply of old network dramas and comedies dries up.
     
  9. Sep 13, 2009 #89 of 223
    SayWhat?

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    Well, they've got 40 years of programming to choose from if they'd stop running the same stuff over and over again.
     
  10. Sep 14, 2009 #90 of 223
    bicker1

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    I agree completely.... With its heavier reliance on a subscriber-based revenue stream, it seems to me that they should be working to make people want cable more, make it worth more than OTA.
     
  11. Sep 14, 2009 #91 of 223
    trainman

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    Sherman...
    Heh...I remember it very well from my closed-captioning career. I liked it, but obviously, not enough of the rest of America did.

    It was your standard outsider-investigates-strange-goings-on-in-small-town drama. Variety called it a "reality/drama hybrid" because there was a viewer contest associated with it, in which there were to have been clues to a puzzle embedded in each of the first 13 episodes, and one person would win $1 million for figuring out the solution to the puzzle. The show got canceled after 7 episodes, but the remaining clues were shown during a "Monday Night Football" game, and the $1 million was given away.

    There's a pretty good summary on Wikipedia.
     
  12. Sep 14, 2009 #92 of 223
    phrelin

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    An article today in the Washington Post has this headline Expect a Lot Of Collateral Damage if Leno Bombs. It covers the affiliate situation fairly well and ends with:
     
  13. Sep 14, 2009 #93 of 223
    mreposter

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    "Willi, the programming strategist" - oh, now that made me burst out laughing... I often consult "Willi" when picking programs to watch. :)

    But the big question for tonight: Will Leno manage to beat a repeat of CSI Miami and that much buzzed-about special on PBS, "Note By Note: The Making of Steinway L1037!"
     
  14. Sep 14, 2009 #94 of 223
    Stewart Vernon

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    Tonight should be interesting...

    On the one hand, he is going up against Monday Night Football... on the other hand, it is a Raiders game...
     
  15. Sep 14, 2009 #95 of 223
    Pete K.

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    NBC gave Jack Parr a prime time show in the early 60's to keep him from jumping networks. It was a success. Of course as my kid is so fond of saying, "That was then, and this is now."
     
  16. Sep 14, 2009 #96 of 223
    SayWhat?

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    Isn't that exactly what it is?
     
  17. Sep 14, 2009 #97 of 223
    phrelin

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    I don't know that tonight's premier is going to be much an indicator of potential unless it bombs.

    On the other hand, next week is the general broadcast networks season premier. CBS is offering essentially the same lineup as last year and ABC running the season premier of "Dancing with the Stars" from 8 to 10:01 pm and the season premier of "Castle" at 10:01. Fox has the season premier of "House" from 8 to 10.

    Against that lineup NBC is offering the season premier of "Heroes" to lead into "Leno." It's a problem for NBC as on last spring's sweeps first Monday April 27 "Heroes" was #4. Here's what happened then:

    [​IMG]

    At 10 pm, "Medium" on NBC outscored "Heroes" at 9 pm but still had 25% of the viewers. ABC led into "Castle" with the dud "Surviving Suburbia" and still pulled 30%.

    When you look at those numbers you have to wonder what NBC has in mind for "Leno." Just how many viewers who watched "CSI: Miami", "Castle", and "Medium" in May will choose to watch "Leno" instead of "CSI:Miami" or "Castle" both of which are police procedurals, different from but also like "Medium." I just don't see "CSI: Miami" and "Castle" viewers shifting in droves to "Leno," but I can see "Medium" viewers shifting to "CSI: Miami" or "Castle."

    The wildcard in all this is ESPN's Monday night football which typically will pull in 6-10 million of the viewers in the chart above depending a bit on timing since it doesn't affect West Coast prime time (Next Monday is Colts v Dophins). Remember, the critical numbers are "live." Anyone want to guess how many of Jay Leno fans are football fans? Maybe tonights ratings will give us a hint. In two large metro areas, the San Francisco Bay Area and San Diego the CBS stations are carrying the football game, in addition to ESPN across the rest of the nation. (Otherwise, Leno's up against a "CSI Miaimi" rerun and ABC running the movie "Dreamgirls" to kill the night with cheap.)
     
  18. Sep 14, 2009 #98 of 223
    Stewart Vernon

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    That's another aspect that I've brought up before.

    We don't want to see 50 CSI and 50 Law & Order and 30 Teen-angst-Vampire shows on if one or two succeed...

    But, if you claim to know your audience... is the Leno audience the CSI audience? I don't know. At 11:30pm, you didn't have to choose between Leno & CSI. Leno wins over Letterman based on personal preference of those who want to watch the late night format.

    But Leno vs CSI? Only time will tell.

    I'm not the hugest Leno fan... but I'm not a hater either. That said, I wouldn't ever choose his format show over a scripted drama. Given the choice, I'd DVR his show and watch later... so until they start counting those DVRed views later in their ratings, they wouldn't ever count me.

    Tonight, I'll watch MNF no contest. Next week I'll have to start DVRing other new shows while I'm watching MNF. The rest of the week is more open except for the Thursday night college games.
     
  19. Sep 14, 2009 #99 of 223
    mreposter

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    phrelin - those are some thought-provoking numbers, but to assume that Leno is only competing for viewers with CSI and Castle is mistake. There's a huge percentage of the audience at 10pm not watching ABC/CBS. You already mentioned MNF on ESPN and reading those numbers it looks like about half the audience is somewhere else.

    More and more of what's on the nets at 10pm is police procedural/mystery oriented. Leno offers counter-programming to that with light comedy and musical entertainment. Even the major cable channels like TNT and FX are doing heavy dramas at 10. Will Leno's mainstream comedy/variety act work at 10? Maybe, maybe not, but at least he's offering an alternative to what most channels are showing.

    Who knows, maybe the tens of millions of viewers who would normally watch the Golden Girls marathon on WE will suddenly switch over to Leno ;)
     
  20. phrelin

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    I haven't watched it yet as it's still recording here on the West Coast. But here's what USA Today had to say about it:
    And the Hollywood Reporter review ends with:
    In other words, it's "The Early Tonight Show with Jay Leno." Only he isn't competing against other late night fare. But the ratings will probably be ok because of the Kanye West thing. We'll see.
     
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