Pay TV is changing rapidly

Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by Bedford11, Nov 22, 2016.

  1. Dec 5, 2016 #81 of 178
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    The biggest roadblock to new satellite is space. Nearly all of the decent licenses are used by DISH and DIRECTV. To get additional space both companies have gone outside of DBS licenses (DIRECTV using Ka and reverse band, DISH formerly using BSS Ku) and outside of US licensing (DISH leasing space from Canada and Mexico licensed slots). So even if one has the wherewithall to construct and launch a satellite there is practically no place to put it. (At least, no good place.)

    I am sure there will still be satellite service "direct to home" in 15 years ... and both DIRECTV and DISH will continue to update their satellite fleets. The market for 20 or 30 years out will be determined as time progresses.

    It all depends on what kind of company one is discussing. If you are talking about a content owner or creator trying to get their content into homes setting up a satellite system would not be the best way. But arranging for satellite carriage of linear channels remains a viable option. No new entrant content owner/creator is going to install their own satellite or cable system - it is a ridiculous suggestion. But they could use existing systems in place.

    If you are talking about a new distributor for other company's content (on the level of DIRECTV, Netflix, Comcast, etc.) real estate is the big hurdle. The skies are full (as discussed above), cable companies have franchises for the peak populated areas. Adding one's own infrastructure via fiber is not cheap. (And no, WISPS are not going to be able to serve everyone infinite bandwidth.)

    Satellite isn't dead. It has probably reached it's peak in subscriber numbers but it isn't dead or dying.
     
  2. Dec 5, 2016 #82 of 178
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    Not really after their last couple of launches. They should be good for more than another decade overall. If not longer. And launching a new satellite is still cheaper that the costs of upgrading a network around the country and getting it into people's homes. And even less expensive if looked at on a cost per subscriber. Same reason everyone ones to create fixed wireless networks instead of running lines to houses in the middle of nowhere.
     
  3. Dec 5, 2016 #83 of 178
    chances14

    chances14 Member

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    initial costs of upgrading the network may be more expensive, but if done right with fiber you would be set for decades.

    long term it would be cheaper than launching new satellites
     
  4. Dec 5, 2016 #84 of 178
    Stewart Vernon

    Stewart Vernon Roving Reporter Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    But to start a streaming company you don't have to build that fiber network... you just have to connect to the existing infrastructure. The ISPs have to do that build-out. Of course, that is lacking in a lot of the US right now... but streaming isn't going to take off for anyone until that becomes the norm... and once it is the norm, the ISPs will be maintaining that, not the content providers of the streaming services.
     
  5. Dec 6, 2016 #85 of 178
    chances14

    chances14 Member

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    what i could see happening is the big guys build out the network and they jack the prices of bandwidth up so much that the cost of barrier is too high for the majority of streaming companies to enter the market
     
  6. Dec 6, 2016 #86 of 178
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Especially the ISPs that are losing money due to losing video subscriptions.

    New ISPs that never sold video services won't miss the income. They will be bandwidth only and not care what consumes the bandwidth as long as the bandwidth is paid for. But old ISPs (cable and fiber) who sold video services and factored those sales into the cost of maintaining their infrastructure are going to need to raise prices to break even.
     
  7. Dec 6, 2016 #87 of 178
    Stewart Vernon

    Stewart Vernon Roving Reporter Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    And if that happens... and it possibly could... that, along with increased cost of content to streaming providers will mean we will very soon not be saving money over the current payTV model... which is, essentially, what many of us have predicted. That cheap-streaming gravy train is only going to stay cheap while it is the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th options for viewers... IF it ever becomes the primary "stream" then it will cost accordingly.
     
  8. Dec 6, 2016 #88 of 178
    chances14

    chances14 Member

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    i think this article pretty much sums up the mindset of internet providers
    WOW: Broadband Caps, Not 'If' but 'When' | Light Reading

    with zero rating and data caps becoming the norm among fixed line broadband providers, any streaming site that doesn't have their own network will have an even tougher time.
     
  9. Dec 6, 2016 #89 of 178
    CTJon

    CTJon Godfather

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    There really isn't any high speed internet for large areas of the country - I live in Maine and a great deal (area wise) of the state doesn't even have cell phone service and only has land line because the government forces it. I'm sure there are plenty other areas of the country that are similar. Satellite is really the great solution and I'm sure will continue to be great for years.

    20 years out - who can tell what technology will be and do by then - something we all don't even conceive of yet.
     
  10. Dec 6, 2016 #90 of 178
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    Yep, this is the same thing that happened with data services for telcos. ISDN was always priced sky high because it not only provided 128 kb (better than the dial up modems of the day) but two phone lines. So they priced it about on par with two business lines, making a non-option for most residential customers (which made the equipment cost really high as well)

    When I first had DSL back in 1997, I had read an article about how someone was ordering 'alarm circuits' from their telco for DSL. Assuming the end to end run from ISP to home was short enough it would work and didn't require any help from the telco, you just needed DSL modems on either end. I showed it to a couple friends who owned an ISP that just happened to be across the street from the central office, and they were off and running getting samples from vendors and testing them at my house since I was about a 9000 ft run end to end. One of the guys even climbed the pole behind my pose to snip the bridge tap on my line he was able to see with his oscilloscope! :p

    So I got free DSL for years, and they were able to offer it as a product about five years before Qwest offered it here. But once they did, they stopped letting him order those dry pair / LADS / alarm circuits because they didn't like the competition. They only allowed them to be ordered by companies that were actually offering burglar / fire alarms that needed it. Eventually Qwest was able to convince the state regulators to let them cut off all those circuits not being used for their intended purpose, so I had to start paying for my DSL :(

    The reason Comcast and other cable companies have started rolling out caps is because they know the cord cutters will come eventually. They can't be seen as adding the caps in reaction to that, so they have put them in place in plenty of time. Mostly they aren't enforced, but when it becomes necessary they'll enforce them to protect their juicy TV revenue. Another way they can protect it is to make the price of internet service higher while making TV cheap to add in a double play package - something they've been doing for years but will probably double down on.

    Some will claim that fixed wireless broadband will come to the rescue, but not really. There isn't enough bandwidth to offer this in more densely populated areas like in cities. Sure, it'll work great out in rural areas where customer density is low, but it'll never work in the suburbs where everyone is crowded together on 1/4 acre lots so you have a couple thousand houses per square mile. If they offer it in such areas at all, they give it a low enough cap it won't be useful for watching much TV.
     
  11. Dec 6, 2016 #91 of 178
    chances14

    chances14 Member

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    i don't think fixed wireless will be the answer in most rural areas either. The truly independent WISP's are extremely localized and performance by those companies vary. Some are great and some are terrible

    Sure AT&T and some of the other big companies might start offering it, but that will just allow them to jack the prices up to make up their tv revenue
     
  12. Dec 6, 2016 #92 of 178
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    There is constant upkeep on a fiber network just as their is a sat based network.
     
  13. Dec 6, 2016 #93 of 178
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    You have to pay a ton to get your network setup and also build connections to all the channels feeds and such as well. Why do you think DIrectv owns a massive fiber network that rings this entire country? Because you have to have proper connections to everything, as well as backups..
     
  14. Dec 7, 2016 #94 of 178
    Bedford11

    Bedford11 Member

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    Need to see what's coming down the Pike.
    5G is going to bring lower costs per bit.
    Multiple Players entering Fixed Wireless Market (competition keeps price low, High/unlimited download caps)
    Infrastructure spending out the roof, communication companies will be spending Billions and Billions.
    Verizon says it will pursue a commercial 5G rollout city-by-city in 2018 and 2019
    Do Not forget about the IOT (will be 40 times the size of the Human Internet) these synergies/volume will help keep internet affordable and everywhere and keep streaming TV subscriptions cheap.
    AT&T going after 15 million 4.5G Fixed Wireless Customers
    All of the Fiber and Fixed Wireless rollouts by CoOps, cities, regions mentioned earlier in this thread will greatly accelerate.
    Hold on tight in 2017 and beyond, going to be fun watching it all play out.
    TV subscription market will have many companies able to provide service to the rural customer where satellite has been the only means till now. 5G will provide competition in the Larger cities to compete with the cable companies.
    Remember the "Portal" mentioned earlier in this thread.
    Here is a clue.
    "gives some idea of why AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) would want Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), the sites of which are broken into pieces. Turner Digital, the largest of them, had unique visitors of 132 million."
    Google Tops Web Traffic List, Followed by Yahoo and Facebook

    Ergen: Dish not doing M&A deal would be ‘malpractice’ in the wake of AT&T-Time Warner merger | FierceCable

    Dish Network's Ergen: OTT will 'chop up' the pay-TV ecosystem | FierceCable

    Top 3 US Carriers Still Interested in DISH's Spectrum | Androidheadlines.com

    Softbank owner of Sprint

    Trump Announces Japanese Telecom Co. Will Invest $50 Billion to Create 50,000 Jobs in U.S. - Breitbart

    Google wants to test in 3.5 GHz band in up to 24 markets | FierceWireless

    Cheap, Fast, compete with cable.
    SpaceX plans worldwide satellite Internet with low latency, gigabit speed

    The Road to Mars is Paved with Internet Gold • /r/spacex
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
  15. Dec 7, 2016 #95 of 178
    Bedford11

    Bedford11 Member

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    Booming, should reach a lot of Rural Customers.

    "Two major telcos expressed interest today in possibly reselling AT&T over-the-top (OTT) video offerings launched last week. In separate question-and-answer sessions, company executives outlined current Frontier and CenturyLink OTT video plans, but also said they might be interested in a wholesale relationship with AT&T involving the AT&T OTT video offerings."

    CenturyLink and Frontier Weigh OTT Options, Float DIRECTV NOW Resale Option - Telecompetitor

    AT&T already has hit the December target the company had set for its DIRECTV NOW sales figures
    CEO on AT&T DIRECTV NOW Sales: December Sales Target Reached Already - Telecompetitor

    Frontier Freedom TV is Latest Hybrid Video Model, Favors OTT and Local - Telecompetitor
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
  16. Dec 7, 2016 #96 of 178
    Bedford11

    Bedford11 Member

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    Huge Spending soon to be announced by Comm. companies across the board. Will take massive amounts of investment to meet demand, get ready.

    Internet video to TV grew 50 percent in 2015
    . This traffic will continue to grow at a rapid pace, increasing 3.6-fold by 2020. Internet video to TV will be 26 percent of fixed consumer Internet video traffic in 2020.
    See why the prices have dropped to .5 cents for 1 hour of video. 5G will drop this even further.
    Content delivery networks (CDNs) will carry nearly two-thirds of Internet traffic by 2020. Sixty-four percent of all Internet traffic will cross CDNs by 2020 globally, up from 45 percent in 2015.

    Gearing up for data volume explosion, Amazing!
    "It would take more than 5 million years to watch the amount of video that will cross global IP networks each month in 2020. Every second, a million minutes of video content will cross the network by 2020"
    The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis

    The total volume of data generated by IoT will reach 600 ZB per year by 2020, 275 times higher than projected traffic going from data centers to end users/devices (2.2 ZB); 39 times higher than total projected data center traffic (15.3 ZB).

    The Zettabyte Era—Trends and Analysis

    With Internet Of Things And Big Data, 92% Of Everything We Do Will Be In The Cloud
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2016
  17. Dec 9, 2016 #97 of 178
    Bedford11

    Bedford11 Member

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    Here comes Maine, a lot quicker than most want to believe.

    RedZone plans to provide coverage to 90% of Maine's population by 2018.

    AT&T ready to roll.
    Link
    Redzone, Maine Fiber team up to expand 'last mile' internet service

    With industry deregulation, slashing corp. tax rate, bringing back Trillions of offshore (tax shelter) money back into the American Economy, that combined with the urgent demand for upgrading networks plus newer available technology, we are going to see a boom like Never before.

    The technology sector represents 55 per cent of Moody’s projected $1.3 trillion in foreign-held corporate cash for the end of 2016

    Unlike other developed nations, the U.S. taxes corporate income globally, but it allows companies to defer paying tax on offshore earnings until they decide to repatriate that income. As a result, U.S. companies have avoided U.S. taxes by stashing roughly $2.6 trillion offshore, a figure cited by Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation. The top five in order of overseas cash holdings as of Sept. 30, are Apple ($216 billion), Microsoft ($111 Billion), Cisco ($60 billion), Oracle Corp. ($51 billion) and Alphabet Inc. ($48 billion).


    Trump's Economic Plan Cuts Corp Tax to 15%, Redoes Trade Deals - Breitbart

    Trump Team’s Memo Hints at Broad Shake-Up of U.S. Energy Policy

    U.S. tech giants poised to benefit most from Trump's cash repatriation plan: Moody’s
     
  18. Dec 9, 2016 #98 of 178
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    Sure, a majority of the money held overseas is held by tech companies. But they are companies like Apple, Microsoft and Facebook, not AT&T and Verizon. Apple isn't going to bring cash back and build networks. In fact, I doubt much of that money would get invested by companies - it will most likely be used for debt retirement, share buybacks and dividends.

    The fantasy the money would be used for investing in the US was the reason behind the foolhardy repatriation done under Bush. That repatriation is the direct cause of why so much money is left overseas now - companies like Apple are willing to wait however many years it takes for the US to either have another repatriation holiday (TERRIBLE idea) or making a permanent change that provides more incentive to bring money back (how it should be done)

    Lowering the US tax rate will help, since so long as money has been taxed at or near the rate in the US, there is no reason not to bring it home. But if it is has been taxed much more lightly (some overseas schemes allow money to be taxed as low as 2%, depending on the type of income and where it was earned) so even if you lower the rate to say 15% companies will start piling up that 2% taxed money by the billions waiting for another foolish repatriation holiday.
     
  19. Dec 9, 2016 #99 of 178
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    I always love things that talk in % and give you no proper scale.
     
  20. Dec 9, 2016 #100 of 178
    CTJon

    CTJon Godfather

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    Great that someone wants to carry service to rural places in Maine - most of the state doesn't even have any AT&T service today.

    I really wonder about how they will make money when they may only have 1 customer in a 10 sq mile area.
     

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