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Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by Sixto, Jul 27, 2008.
Hmmm. (wonder if someone has been holding back on us)
Don't blame "Russian mentality." During the 1980's, the Soviet Union launched 103 Protons, 558 R-7 (Soyuz family), 156 R-14 Cosmos and 123 R-36 rockets.
As I have repeatedly noted, they will launch whatever the funding will allow. ILS also trumpeted Khrunichev's increased Proton production capability as recently as last year (up to 14 per year). There's a reason they're advertising that fact, folks.
Anik on the nasa spaceflight forum has now moved D-12 launch to TBD
Ah forget the 80's military expenses - that's why Berlin wall fall - this time the country's economic is not for aerospace competition.
The 80's = money for space launches. That is EXACTLY my point. Money will allow more launches; lack of money will inhibit the launch rate. This is not that complicated.
True on one hand;
But regarding the 80's model as a comparison would ILS' customers today really appreciate the, to borrow the title from old Harold Lloyd movie "Safety Last," approach to conducting business like the former Soviet Union operated under?
I always felt the Soviet mentality at the time with a lot of these space launches was really more about showboating to the west for propaganda purposes instead of necessity. And whomever or whatever got hurt, killed, or damaged along the way was simply too bad and covered up for the sake of continuing to score points on the west.
Yep, that's the best we have right now besides CFO comment of end of the year.
Actually, the Soviet model of space operations was very "Western" (e.g., "NASA-like"). Throw lots and lots of money and resources at it. The failure rates for those 80's launches was very, very low. Of the ones I listed, only 14 of those 558 R-7's failed. That's among the best launch reliability in the world. The Proton had 7 failures in 103 launches, a success rate over 93% . . . still among the best in the world.
In rocket launch operations, you WANT high launch rates - it drives down per-launch overhead costs, increases workforce familiarity with procedures and practices, and vastly increases the statistical basis for failure analysis when things do go wrong.
[My pessimism and bringing that russian mentality's factor came from first hand FA info regarding manufacturing process of some parts for 1st stages...]
As always P., thanks for the info. Great teamwork here.
Oh I didn't mean to imply that the former Soviet Union's terrible disregard for safety and human life was necessarily reflected in their launch success rate, but in their undoubtably brute force tactics and I would wager virtual slave labor, used to achieve it where no matter the risk to any launch personnel or other associated employees (I sincerely doubt the Soviets had anything resembling an OSHA ) or danger to the public, pollution and damage to the environment, was really of no matter to them.
Just get the rocket up there at all costs.
Well true, but not the old Soviet way of accomplishing it with it's characteristic apathy for the humane side of business.
Without disregarding the points you raise about health, safety and environmental regulations, the general fact is that those conditions did not generally occur in the Soviet aerospace industry of the late 20th century. Gulag labor was too risky for important State functions like building and launching rockets.
The one thing that the modern ILS does do that no American-based launch operator could ever do is drop hypergolic stages on land (and probably not even in the oceans anymore). That $h!t is seriously nasty /dangerous and hypergolic servicing is one of the most expensive and labor-intensive part of space shuttle orbiter pre-launch and post-landing processing.
So is there now a consensus that for D12 to go live by 1/31/10 a new Cold War needs to happen pronto?
Well... hopefully not. That might slow things down...
Yet we really do need to see it on a launch schedule pronto. Being listed as TBD is not good news. (And if it continues that way for very long would be bad news.)
I suspect Anik simply changed his list to "TBD" to reflect the conflict between earlier FCC documents discussing mid-October through mid-November, and the more recent news that Eutelsat really, REALLY wants to get their bird up and that ILS is apparently accommodating them. Since there has not been a PEEP of disgruntlement from Directv reported by industry sources, it's probably fair to surmise what we've already more or less figured out: first, Directv is in no big rush. Fall seasons have started; subscriber base continues to grow despite no significant channel additions, etc. Second: money either changed hands to move Eutelsat to the head of the line or D12 isn't ready. Of these two possibilities, it's much more likely to be the former rather than the latter; D12/RB-2A has been in the planning stages since 2004 so it's not likely to be that far behind schedule (unless someone dropped it or something - don't laugh; Lockheed did that to a satellite a few years ago :nono.
Time (and FCC filings) will tell, however.
Yeah, one doesn't just grab a rolling car jack to move these babies around.
Some of the test facilities Boeing has are amazing. The various shaker tables, the launch simulation chamber, the antenna testing chamber, etc. All just amazing.
Maybe I'll call Paula at ILS and suggest they just go ahead and get D12 up mid-october to keep the slate cleared for W-7
There were some impressive facilities there when I worked on satellites for Hughes in 1962-66 and I'm sure they pale compared to the current equipment. Still things happen--I got a phone call early one Sunday morning saying I needed to come in because when they did a spin test on ATS-1 one of the antennas came off and flew across the room, narrowly missing the first Surveyor spacecraft :eek2:
We had a redesign completed within a few days :bowdown:
Yes I can imagine, while my feelings certainly are mixed here though since I'm not at all happy about the seemingly never ending proliferation of space junk all this stuff eventually contributes to despite the impressive technology. On the other hand I wholeheartedly agree with you. Simply "AMAZING!"
I'm only hearing crickets in this thread. No news is bad news. :crying_sa
Waiting to confirm if D12 will follow W7 (which is the next ILS Proton-M/Briz-M launch).