Supply disruptions

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Mark Holtz, Apr 13, 2021.

  1. Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

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    Is it my imagination, but does it seem that the during 2020 and 2020+1, the supply disruptions seem to be more pronounced than usual? Yes, Covid has been one of the main factors, but other factors are coming into play now. Consider:
    At least we're not talking about toilet paper, paper towels, headsets, and webcams at the moment. Maybe this will lead to a boom in fixing stuff up when it's broken rather than tossing it away and replacing it.
     
  2. MysteryMan

    MysteryMan Well-Known Member DBSTalk Club

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    Add canned cat food to your list.
     
  3. NYDutch

    NYDutch DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    The ketchup packet shortage at least, is directly attributable to COVID. The transition of many restaurants to take out only needing packets has simply outrun the production capacity of the providers. Whenever we've gotten take out where ketchup packets would normally be provided, we've made a point of telling them we don't need them, since we have an adequate supply of our own in bottles.
     
  4. WestDC

    WestDC Well-Known Member DBSTalk Club

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    importing the city of Chicago every Month also causes a lot of shortages
     
  5. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    Toilet paper and paper toweling are indeed on the rise as wood products.

    The timber shortage is mostly due to a bad fire season in the Pacific Northwet last summer rather than the pandemic.
     
  6. celticpride

    celticpride Icon

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    The worst thing is that when we get back to normal (if ever) the prices will stay high!
     
  7. WestDC

    WestDC Well-Known Member DBSTalk Club

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    We never go back to "NORMAL" as Long as everyone "OBEYS"
     
  8. billsharpe

    billsharpe Hall Of Fame

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    We will eventually get back to a "new normal." There will be a lot more work from home jobs than there used to be, which will affect a lot of other categories.
     
  9. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    PCs have been hard to get (at least the professional level ones my company buys for employees). Data switches and access points are next on my list of "oh, we need more lead time". Thanks COVID.
     
  10. MysteryMan

    MysteryMan Well-Known Member DBSTalk Club

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    I purchased a Dell Vostro 5880 Business PC in January and had no problem having it built to my specifications (HD, SSD, Processor, Memory). The only delay I experienced was with shipping.
     
  11. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    It’s a confluence of things….

    None of this is meant to be political, I’m only pointing at cause and effect of some things I’ve seen happen.

    Covid created some weird surges in the market which has caused odd surges and shortages of a plethora of different products… which also causes prices to wildly fluctuate.

    Trump started raising tariffs on many countries first and demanded better trade rules (in theory) rather than negotiating them upfront. Things take a while to trickle down but that’s a huge reason for some of the massive price increases I’ve seen. Example, plywood jumping at least $10 a sheet at hone depot. And yeah it’s imported… don’t get me started on prices of 2x4s. And many other random things. Most the time anything any president does doesn’t truly hit the market for 2 to 4 years while companies adjust.

    There’s also the issue of all the minimum wage increase that has been happening and all the “hero pay” that have been hitting companies by law makers. That money is going to come from somewhere, and it’s coming from higher prices for the products we are buying.

    Add in that the world also hasn’t been building out enough chip factories to get ahead of demand, with so many more things needing more sophisticated chips, that also creates a bottle neck for all sorts of things.

    Add in a massive shift with so many people suddenly working from home and you get another surge of demand for certain products.

    In the end there is no one thing to blame, but I suspect a little bit should go to everyone all around…
     
  12. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    Lumber typically isn't imported from of the tariff countries so I'm not buying that the wood building products price is a side effect of the pandemic. That said, paper products may have a demonstrable impact but I think it is more of a supply and demand issue.

    There's certainly some tariff impact on retail prices for consumer electronics gear but it certainly doesn't add up to a 25-50% cost increase as we've seen in the Denon marketplace (their low-to-mid-line products are assembled in Viet Nam - a non-tariff country).
     
  13. NYDutch

    NYDutch DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    All imported lumber, including from Canada where 83% of our imported softwoods come from, was subject to a 20% tariff imposed in 2017. As lumber prices rose, the tariff was dropped to 9% last December.
     
  14. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Regarding lumber, it appears to be complicated by a variety of causes as explained in Lumber price inflation helps drives up California North Coast construction costs.

    Building material costs, with lumber alone up by 180%, may not drop to pre-pandemic levels soon, even when mills return to full staffing and overseas factories fully recover, according to some suppliers and contractors.

    At Healdsburg Lumber Company, half-inch plywood off the shelf sold for $19.93 a sheet on Feb. 4, 2020, while on April 1, 2021, the price was more than triple at $60 a sheet.

    “Six months ago I would have told you it will come down at any moment. Now people say there is no end in sight,” said Ryan Arata, general manager for the Sonoma County lumber yard. “You can’t just fix the supply overnight. If tomorrow COVID ended and everyone was back working 24/7, they would still only have X number of plywood plants in the U.S. and you can only work so fast. So, it’s going to take months or years to build up stock.”​

    The causes a numerous but a significant factor is that when the shutdown occurred so did lumber mills and when work resumed employees were subject to safe distance rules. This meant many workers did not return and production lines were putting out less than they did before the pandemic.

    According to Healdsburg Lumber products would be delivered in two days with 98% of the order. Now it takes four weeks, with a fill rate of 60%.

    Then there's the work from home crowd now, including those who bought homes. Remodeling and expansion created new demand. And I'm not sure these folks are even aware of the cost increases.
     
  15. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    Yikes ! Not like even cheap motorcycle tires run $200-300. A set of tires on either of my cars is $600 + usually....
     
  16. b4pjoe

    b4pjoe DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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  17. WestDC

    WestDC Well-Known Member DBSTalk Club

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    The other Reason: currently their are 21 Ships Moored of the coast of Cailf waiting to off load into ports as well as other ports around the country --do to lack of workers to unload and trucks to get it out and about
     
  18. Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

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    Rental Cars in case you are planning on vacationing. Some daily rates were listed at $500 per day!
     

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