The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    You certainly cannot be blamed for not believing any of them. "Confusing and inconsistent" is putting it mildly, outright lying would be my choice.

    Rich
     
  2. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I believe there are people out there that believe that nonsense. I just saw on one of the news tickers that one-third of the people in this country don't believe in vaccinations. I have no idea if that's true...just did a Google search, I saw nothing to support that claim. I saw that ticker while watching CNN.

    Rich
     
  3. scooper

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    If / when a safe, effective vaccination ever becomes available for C-19 - I'll be the first in line for it. But I'm not going to hold my breath either.
     
  4. Jul 1, 2020 #424 of 502
    Nick

    Nick Charter Gold Club Member DBSTalk Club

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    You certainly are a dumb*ss, aren't you? Stay the hell away from me! :cool:
     
  5. Jul 1, 2020 #425 of 502
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    The "song of the summer" is a reboot from 1980 ... "Don't stand so close to me".

     
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  6. Jul 2, 2020 #426 of 502
    scooper

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    No - I'm just fed up with all this crap. DOn't believe any of it any more. If there had been steady , CONSISTENT, messages from the politicians (starting at POTUS), I might be more amenable... If there hadn't been politicization of it maybe. But not now. I'll take my chances because I want to live life and not cower and cringe in fear of something I can't do anything about any way. And I'll probably not catch it - or have an asymptomatic case at worst.
     
  7. Jul 2, 2020 #427 of 502
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    It is important to choose one's reference points wisely. Dr Fauci seems to be a consistent voice from the scientific community but talking about maybe having a vaccine by the beginning of next year isn't popular - so he gets shouted down. His approach has always been from the standpoint of how to stop the virus - but there are competing desires. Unfortunately the wisest voices were shouted down by the more emotional and, yes, politics played a part. People who have goals other than to stop the spread playing along with the scientists until they got fatigued.

    I keep reading the thread title: What will we lose when it ends? At this point it appears we will lose a year or two of our lives (if not our lives). We will lose our innocence that the greatest country on the greatest planet can have such a bad thing occur. I hope we don't lose our sanity.
     
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  8. Jul 2, 2020 #428 of 502
    NR4P

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    Masks serve two purposes, to protect you and to protect me/others around you.
    We can't smoke cigarettes in public buildings or planes due to the harm it does to others.

    Yes very confusing messages due to politics. The Governor of Texas badmouths Faucci and has clamped down on openings, gone in reverse and today announced mandatory masks in some Counties/Cities. And yet thinks Fauci is a quack. Oh my.

    Science isn't perfect, its a learning as you couldn't do heart transplants much more than 50 years ago, now it's a common success thing. Cancer was a death promise in the past, now some forms are 98% cure rate. And in the past 30 days some Corona Virus treatments (Platelets and Remdesivir) are helping those on their death bed.

    Our grandparents and great grandparents lived through WWI, the 1920 Epidemic, the Market Crash, WWII, rationing, no electric lights at night due to war, nuclear worries, and more. People ran to sign up to serve this country and lost their lives. They didn't whine.

    You sir, are being asked to socially distance, stay at home when you can, enjoy luxuries like TV and streaming, instant communications by computer and phone all around the world and...... wear a mask. Oh, the pain and heartache you must feel. You would be so thankful today if you endured what your parents, grandparents, and great grandparents endured for you.

    But what you wrote reads as selfish and myopic.
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
  9. Jul 2, 2020 #429 of 502
    NR4P

    NR4P Dad

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    Tickers are teasers. When you see something there, its meant to draw your attention. It did so now you can search and come to your own conclusions.
     
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  10. Jul 2, 2020 #430 of 502
    trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    But you can do something about it. Social distancing. PPE. Wash/sanitize your hands.
     
  11. Jul 2, 2020 #431 of 502
    scooper

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    You all DON'T understand. Fauci wants to shut down the country to stop it. Trump wants everything open as much as possible. How is that NOT INCONSISTENT !?!?!?!

    And yes - my rant may sound selfish and myopic - well guess what - I don't care what it sounds like !!!!!

    I also don't care if we lose 1,000,000 due to death from this anymore. They were going to die anyway,,, Get the people out there so the herd immunity builds up.

    Yes I do wash my hands and keep my 6 feet, but if I'm concentrating on something else - I don't flipout on it either. Those people who are so terrified they won't leave their homes - they're pathetic.

    Unless you're wearing an N-95 mask correctly - it won't do a thing to prevent you from getting something from someone else.
     
  12. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    They have different agendas. And they are both consistent to their own agendas. Dr Fauci is a scientist who is focusing on saving lives. The other guy isn't a scientist and has other focuses - for better or for worse.

    I thought you were talking about inconsistency of the same person from day to day. Those are the people who I would try to avoid. And, where possible, those are the people I would hold accountable for their swings in their message. When the message changes I want to know why. If the explanation is good I can accept a change in guidance. If the guidance sounds like it came from a Magic 8 Ball or horoscope I look elsewhere for guidance.

    Most of the changes in guidance I have seen are numbers driven. I am fortunate to be in a county that despite being the second highest in my state for infections is 15th out of 92 counties in deaths. I live in a state with plenty of respirators and open ICU beds. Not all counties and states in the US are as fortunate.

    Over the next couple of days a lot of people are going to say "to hell with it" and go mingle with people they don't normally live with on a daily basis. Even if they feel sick they will make the effort to be with family and friends. In my state the hospitals are ready. But I'd rather avoid being one of their patients.

    Everyone on Earth will die. I'd rather put that off as long as possible.
     
  13. scooper

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  14. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    "When it ends?" This is gonna be worse than the Great Depression when it's looked at historically. The only thing we have going for us is the government's ability to borrow money. Or print money, I'm not sure what's going on there. Can't keep putting out trillions of dollars to shore up a collapsing economy.

    Rich
     
  15. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    She is outside of her lane. Assuming her claimed credentials are correct, the moment she steps away from medicine and talks about economics she is just another person guessing at the answers. Even her medical statements contain important errors. When speaking in her lane (medical information) she obscures the facts with her own opinions, giving some numbers that are not supported and obscuring factual numbers by characterizing the numbers instead of stating them. Many of her opinions seem to be guided by politics, not medical science.

    Most people who deal with infectious diseases don't want people to get sick and consider death to be a failure of the medical profession. Her credentials seem to be dealing with mass casualty events such as natural disasters, terrorism and mass shootings (not infection prevention and control). Perhaps that is why she sees COVID-19 through the eyes of a short term event with a limited number of victims. 129k US dead and over a half million dead worldwide (so far) with no end in sight is not a typical mass casualty event.

    And yes, you should be upset that she and others like her are using their titles to give information that will lead to an increase in infections and deaths. Her advice is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Follow her advice and everyone will get sick and many will die.
     
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  16. NR4P

    NR4P Dad

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    Not true.
    This is airborne, assuming no sneeze up to 6' away.
    You breathe with no mask, whatever germs you have travel many feet.
    Put a mask on, you reduced the range drastically. Some virus may pass through but there is restriction.

    Don't believe in science? Try this simple science test.
    Have someone stand 6' feet from you and spray a garden hose right at you.
    You get 99% of the water on you instantly.

    Now dry off.

    Same experiment but put a window screen or outdoor pool screen mid way between the hose and you. Have other person spray the hose as they did before.

    Guess what?
    99% of the water didn't soak you.
    The screen blocked it, some fell to the ground.
    Did 50% pass through? Maybe.

    Same principle with any good face/nose mask.
    You minimize transmission.
    And if you wear a mask when the hose is aimed at you, it blocks some water for a few seconds.
    Extra protection!

    Science 101.

    And if you continue to feel the same way, I pray you don't infect others and cause this situation.
    Think of my babies in the NICU, and wear the mask - CNN
     
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  17. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I believe the assumption is "I'm not sick, I don't need a mask" since the droplets such a person would be spraying would not contain the virus. One may get soaked by a non mask wearing person who believes they are not sick - but what is the difference if they are not sick?

    The reality is that this particular disease is spread by asymptomatic people. So person A doesn't know they are sick and spread the virus to person B who doesn't know they are sick and spreads the virus to person C. If person A and B are resilient they may get a "mild case" - if they don't get diagnosed then person A and person B don't do the contact tracing and person C continues to spread the virus until they show symptoms. This progression wouldn't be too bad, but COVID-19 spreads too easily. Person A could be infecting persons B1, B2, B3, B4 who in turn infect 16 more people (C1-C16) ... 20 people infected because one didn't wear a mask around four with the same behavior. All good until one of the Cs is not as resilient as the people above them in the chain. Or we get to the D, E and F levels before an infected person is identified.

    This would be an easier disease to fight if it was not spread by asymptomatic people. Even being able to say that the ability to spread is limited to people with mild symptoms would be helpful. But science can't say that. Until every case can be traced back through a chain of symptomatic people science has to follow what they have seen - people without symptoms are spreading the disease.
     
  18. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    YouTube and Facebook are the worst places in the world to get your info. Everyone there wants to push their agenda. Heck, many people take press conferences then edit them and claim the wrong dates and post it to push their feelings. It’s sad really.
     
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  19. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    Oh so many things...

    Fauci has never said he wants to shut down the country. He’s flat out said he’s not an economist and can’t say anything to that end. What he does is gives his view of the current situation based on current and cumulative data and trends and past trends with epidemics and then tells you what you could do to eliminate the virus completely right now, and also how you can minimize it. His statements are scientific not political. But people see then as such because they don’t want to believe this is an issue in the first place. Hence that you tube woman.

    Trump is clearly pushing a more economic point of view for likely political reasons. It’s funny I’m not hearing any conspiracy theories about the massive job gains we had last month...

    I also prefer not to get my info from politicians, especially not just them. You have to look at the data and the overal majority of the people talking and understand what they are saying and why they are saying it to get a good feel for what’s happening.


    The biggest fallacy in all this is the idea these people would die soon or this year anyway. That’s just false. The first six weeks clearly show us that when you look at all the data. Modern medicine is extraordinary and people often forget that. I’d have died in 2004 if it whereby for modern medicine. (Appendix died and got gang green)

    Data... too many people grab one bite and think it tells them everything. It doesn’t. You need lots of data and almost no one gives you all the data. You have to read from lots of credible sources (and in some cases the non credible sources use the facts and spin them, which just shows the data may be right even if their conclusions are wrong) so that you can get a picture of the forest and not just a grove of trees, or worse yet just the tree in front of you.

    The next hardest part is interpreting that data. Many people likely didn’t take statistics and probability classes that help teach you how to read and understand and interpret the data. So not only do you need a lot of data you need some idea of understanding how to interpret what it all means beyond what one simple thing shows as a trend.

    While I’m not an expert I’ve got some idea on how to do all those things. Not claiming I’m brilliant or a genius but I have a good enough history of interpreting data and extrapolating and seeing real trends and so forth. That’s how I come to my conclusions in general on many things. From an analytic standpoint using math and science and real world human behavior.

    If everyone would wear a mask when indoors and in close proximity to others outside (especially if it’s for any length of time) this thing is massively less dangerous to those doing that. Something like 98% better chances of not getting the virus. That’s such a simple thing to do.

    I agree you can’t stop living and need to try and find a new normal that causes the least amount of disturbance. And many other countries have already done so without a vaccine. Probably cause people wear a mask and distance like all the good doctors suggested.

    One obvious example, lots of protesters in Minnesota and California. Minnesota ones all had on masks it looked like. Many in California didn’t. Funny how Minnesota has not had a spike and California has. Not the only reason but a decent part of the reason. That’s one of the bigger more obvious displays of masks ability to help. I’m not going to point to everything I’ve looked at but that’s one part of a bigger trend showing masks effectiveness.

    The biggest issue with people who say it doesn’t help unless you are infected is these people are only looking at perfect laboratory conditions. Real world isn’t in a laboratory and masks are more effective in the real world for things like this than in a laboratory.

    Remember condoms are only 98% effective, but how often do you hear of someone using a condom and still getting pregnant?

    I go to hone depot quite a bit but I know as long as I wear a mask and don’t linger next to other people I’m not really worried. Even as I walk by someone and am within a foot of them I don’t see a real concern. Because i will not have been exposed to them long enough plus i have on a mask. But so many people linger next to others, that’s when concern comes in.

    Personally I think the only really questionable things are gyms without masks which is totally buzzard to me, and indie dining at restaurants. I ate at a restaurant yesterday, but it was outdoor seating and well spaced. I felt perfectly fine. I would not eat indoors right now and guess what, that’s what just got closed again here in many areas of California. There’s a reason for that.


    I do wish they’d release the data of contact tracing so we could see in detail where people where who had it and see all the trends. But those dang hippa rules make that difficult.

    Frankly from a scientific standpoint we very much opened up incorrectly. Could have been opening up sooner but less things at a time and that would have been far better and given us much better data points in how to tweak processes for things like indoor dinning to make them safer. But politicians where afraid of opening too soon then afraid they didn’t open up fast enough. And so out the window science went in that particular case, which is why we see a few rollbacks of a few things, like indoor dinning in much of California.

    I really hope you can find some peace at some point and find a way to simply wear a mask and distance a little and go back to normal for most everything. That’s what I wish we’d all do. I’d suggest that you stop expecting a politician who’s trying to get re-elected to have the same speech as a scientist. I’d also say that doing the bare minimum (masks and distance and some hand washing) is also to simple to not do to decrease your risk exponentially. Especially since real world data shows how effective those three things are regardless of what some random nurse and a few other people may want to claim based in laboratory tests.
     
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  20. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    It’s pretty clear non symptom people are spreading it.

    If one person has it and they give it to two people the following day... then those two give it to two others the next day and so on, it’s take but 28 days for a million people to have it. This thing isn’t spreading that fast but that illustrates how fast things can spread exponentially.

    And in some areas they believe the average spread is something like one person giving it to seven people. It’s very difficult to know that for certain. But that number would not be surprising at all.
     

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