The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. Aug 1, 2020 #621 of 704
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Given everything I've read about Covid-19, I'm not sure there is a clear criteria for determining when a person who died while infected with Covid-19 had a direct vs. indirect death. If I die three years early of an "underlying condition" aggravated by Covid-19, did I die of Covid-19?

    Because here in California we had the shutdown to give time to prepare the hospitals, the only number that means something to me is reflected in this chart:

    [​IMG]

    Californians shut down and Californians have opened up with limits. No one ever said we were going to prevent the spread nor the deaths.

    Fortunately for us oldies, we have been able to remain on our property since March 13.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2020
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  2. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Two nights ago I had the dogs out and I saw a bunch of kids in front of the house across the street. At least 10 kids, all in high school, literally on top of each other. No masks, no worries. After a while, most of them piled into a large SUV and drove off. No thoughts of distancing and no masks. Must be nice to be immortal. Or so dumb they don't have any idea of what's going on. I know the kids that live there and I'm shocked. I have to think the parents weren't home. New Jersey was doing so well and then the parties began. House parties with a lot of people in attendance. The cops just busted up one house party last week that had over 700 people in attendance. This is an excellent way to spread the virus.

    Rich
     
  3. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Infection Among Attendees of an Overnight Camp — Georgia, June 2020
    "During June 17–20, an overnight camp in Georgia (camp A) held orientation for 138 trainees and 120 staff members; staff members remained for the first camp session, scheduled during June 21–27, and were joined by 363 campers and three senior staff members on June 21. Camp A adhered to the measures in Georgia’s Executive Order that allowed overnight camps to operate beginning on May 31, including requiring all trainees, staff members, and campers to provide documentation of a negative viral SARS-CoV-2 test ≤12 days before arriving. Camp A adopted most components of CDC’s Suggestions for Youth and Summer Camps to minimize the risk for SARS-CoV-2 introduction and transmission. Measures not implemented were cloth masks for campers and opening windows and doors for increased ventilation in buildings. Cloth masks were required for staff members."

    "A total of 597 Georgia residents attended camp A. . . . Test results were available for 344 attendees; among these, 260 were positive."

    Note this was published as an early release a month after the camp closed (giving time for scientific results and review).

    We have had similar house parties in my area. Wishful thinking is that the kids got away without anyone getting infected. I see it as Russian Roulette. You only win if there is no bullet in the gun. If there is a bullet someone is going to get hurt.
     
  4. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    On April 29th, the State of Indiana had 17,792 confirmed cases. A random community survey was taken April 25th-29th testing 3658 people with both nasal swab and antibody tests. The results were extrapolated to show an an estimated 187,802 Indiana residents had been infected prior to April 29th. Over 9 times the confirmed count reported through regular testing. 44% of those testing positive in the community survey reported no symptoms. The results of the study were published July 24th.

    Population Point Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Based on a Statewide Random Sample — Indiana, April 25–29, 2020
     
  5. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    How they screwed that up is rather amazing when you think about it. Did whoever ran that camp actually expect something different to happen? In a state that is being pounded by the virus? Seems almost criminal to me.

    Rich
     
  6. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    I'm waiting for the first civil lawsuit in one of the cases filed by a patient or surviving family members. Pain and suffering, material loss, etc.
     
  7. steve053

    steve053 Godfather

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    That article was from mid May and the data is from patients that started the regime after being hospitalized. I have no reason to believe that the article or study are incorrect.

    Here's a link to a peer reviewed study by the Henry Ford Health System on patients that received hydroxycloroquine early in their treatment and had 50% better mortality outcomes:
    Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine Cut Death Rate Significantly in COVID-19 Patients, Henry Ford Health System Study Shows

    Is the regimen for everyone, probably not. Does it show promise for some patients, probably yes.
     
  8. steve053

    steve053 Godfather

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    I'm sure there's at least one firm working on that right now.
     
  9. steve053

    steve053 Godfather

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    Kids aren't as at risk (from being symptomatic or from death) as parents and grandparents.
    https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2...hildren-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

    They need to socialize, it's part of being a human child. The WHO recently talked about kids not going to school as a greater health risk than COVID. The academy of pediatricians also supports kids going back to school in Fall.

    Even thought we're in an uptick of positive cases, we're still 50-60% below the daily deaths we were seeing at the peek in late April. We have a better understanding of how to treat the virus and how to protect the most vulnerable in the community. In no way do I think that this is "nothing" or that it's not a danger to a large number of people. But it's not all doom and gloom.
     
  10. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Fauci: Henry Ford Health's hydroxychloroquine study 'flawed'

    Dr. Anthony Fauci told federal lawmakers Friday that a study by Henry Ford Health System that showed hydroxychloroquine was effective in lowering the death rate among COVID-19 patients was "flawed."

    "The Henry Ford Hospital study that was published was a non-controlled retrospective cohort study that was confounded by a number of issues, including the fact that many people who were receiving hydroxychloroquine were also using corticosteroids, which we know from another study gives a clear benefit in reducing deaths with advanced disease," said Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert advising the White House on the coronavirus response.
     
  11. NYDutch

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    And here's the other side of the hydroxychloroquine story:

    Fact check: Hydroxychloroquine hasn't helped COVID-19, studies show

    Hydroxychloroquine: Researchers publish scathing critique of Henry Ford study touted by the White House - CNN

    Fauci: Henry Ford Health’s hydroxychloroquine study ‘flawed’ | TribLIVE.com

    Yet Another Study Shows Hydroxychloroquine Ineffective in COVID-19 | BioSpace
     
  12. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    See the summer camp outbreak report in the posts above. Infected is the problem, not symptomatic. Kids can and do spread the virus.

    A thousand people a day isn't nothing. Deaths per day has been rising over the past couple of weeks. If the numbers do not change we will easily be at 180k by the end of August.

    Not all gloom and doom ... but a house party with 700 in attendance probably is not the healthiest environment even without COVID-19. "Kids need to socialize" doesn't extend to "kids need to get drunk" and engage in other risky behavior.

    Party safe.
     
  13. steve053

    steve053 Godfather

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    Never referenced the 700+ house party. Never condoned it. Never ascribed to "kids need to get drunk".

    Your comment is completely and 100% out of context to my post that specifically references Rich and his posting about the 10 or so kids outside a house.

    Taking my comments about 10 HIGH SCHOOL kids and extrapolating it to a drunken house party of adults is as absurd as me twisting your "will easily be at 180k by the end of August" comment to "expect over 400M deaths by 2022". I think your positions on most things are very well thought out and reasonable, but not this.
     
  14. scooper

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    1000 infections or deaths per day IS nothing compared to a population of 330 million. It's tragic on an individual basis, but in the big picture - nope.
     
  15. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    A friend of mine stopped by a couple of days ago. During a conversation about the virus, he said, "I'm asymptomatic, nothing to worry about". I stepped back a few feet and asked him if he had any idea what "asymptomatic" means. "Yeah, it means I don't have any symptoms of the virus."

    I think it means someone has been tested and found to have the virus but has no symptoms at that time. At least in the context of what we are going thru these days. The party with ~ 700 people congregating without paying any attention to the protocols was outrageous, that should be obvious to anybody. I guess those kids I saw across the street the other day don't register as well as the party with all those people as being dangerous but suppose one of them was infected and passed it on to a couple of the kids that were there that night. That's how it begins.

    When I started this thread I thought the ability to congregate would be one of the things we would lose and, unfortunately, it looks like that's true. Yes, kids should be able to socialize. But during a pandemic? I have to wonder about that. I know from first-hand experience how hard this is on kids. We have a 12-year-old child in our home that isn't going to a physical school this year and she's not a bit happy about it. But, she's willing to do it because of me. I'll leave it at that, a little sacrifice in the middle of a disaster isn't too much to ask for, I think.

    BTW, my friend understands what that word means now. We had a long conversation about what's going on. He hadn't paid all that much attention to the COVID news.

    Rich
     
  16. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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  17. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    They didn’t ban it ever and they also had real reasons on questioning it in the first place. Do some more research, the first time one higher up guy said don’t use it was because of the source was from another country and it not being tested to see if it met fda standards, something all drugs are supposed to have happen.

    They have also said repeatedly you have to be careful and not use it except by an experienced doctor in a hospital under observation. Trump seemed to be suggesting people take it like a regular drug at a pharmacy. They don’t want doctors just prescribing this stuff and there are good reasons for that.

    I think I’ll take all the doctors words over that of someone who said ignore it, it’ll all go away.

    And the overall Numbers showed this thing if anything is being undercounted. In fact we should all hope it is being under under counter, specifically total cases . That would actually be a good thing.

    And if you really get into it, very few people ever actually die from the flu. Way less than most the numbers say, sort of. Most people who die and have flu listed died from another disease that was able to take hold due to lower immune system from the flu. (I believe phenomenon is the number one cause) Covid deaths are also sharing with other disease, but not simply because it lowers your immune system. It’s a whole different ball game. Covid is more like a double team.
     
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  18. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    The only thing I’d be careful of us people you know well. Mostly based on what they do in general. If they are retired, wearing masks when going into bulldozing and such as well and otherwise keep distancing etc you are probably good. If they work inside a big building with lots of people without masks, I would be very cautious around them. But why anyone would wear a mask while alone in their own car or riding a motorcycle is beyond me. That’s not when masks are needed. Nor have I seen anyone say that they where needed in those instances.

    I would wear one outside if you found yourself in a large crowd. But if you are on a walk and not near any strangers then again, no need for a mask. I take a lot of walks never wear a mask. Take one just in case of emergency or something but never put one on. Don’t need it.
     
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  19. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    I’d ask about the steroids. There are some that have been using that seem to show very good results. Don’t recall the names though.
     

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