The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. Aug 7, 2020 #701 of 849
    Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I did not mean that. What I heard last night was an explanation of how deaths were treated when people die at home. I didn't get the impression that it was routine to have an autopsy done and without that how would they know exactly why the person died? In short, what he said was every death does not get tested for COVID.

    Rich
     
  2. Aug 7, 2020 #702 of 849
    Rich

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    I'd like to think the numbers we see from Johns Hopkins are COVID related deaths, deaths that would not have happened if this virus had not appeared. I can't see how they could be "grossly" under or overcounted. We'll never know the exact numbers. There are too many people looking at the statistics, I don't see how anyone would get away with that.

    Rich
     
  3. Aug 7, 2020 #703 of 849
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Johns Hopkins gets their numbers from the states which get their numbers from the counties. Think of it as an organized version of crowdsourcing numbers. They list their sources for people to follow back.

    The problem I see is what people do with "We'll never know the exact numbers". Accepting the numbers we have as fairly close can lead to a rational discussion. Throwing out all the numbers leads to irrational statements.
     
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  4. Aug 7, 2020 #704 of 849
    Rich

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    I have no problem with the numbers from Johns Hopkins. And I'll go with Dr. Fauci's take on the numbers. We have to trust someone.

    Rich
     
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  5. Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

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  6. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    There isn't gonna be a college football season, how could you protect anyone on a football field during a game? Same thing goes for the NFL, how can they possibly do that? They're gonna "bubble up" all those teams? MLB is struggling with the virus and I would not be surprised to see them give up. They have a ton of doubleheaders that have to be played before we can get to the playoffs and some of the teams are never gonna play 60 games. Football generates billions of dollars every year and if they can't play it has to affect the economy adversely.

    Rich
     
  7. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Pre COVID football generated billions ... but how much can a "safe" version of the sport generate? How much of those billions is generated by butts in the stadium seats that most states are not going to allow at more than a token capacity? The best case scenario for a "COVID" season is not anywhere near a normal season.
     
  8. trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    Someone in my office said that the Jacksonville Jaguars were talking about attendees at 25% of capacity.

    I said "25% would be an improvement in attendance over the past couple of years."
     
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  9. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    OUCH !
     
  10. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    TV money. That's all they have. No fannies in the seats, no concession sales. The only scenario left is playing in empty stadiums. So, they play for TV money. Same as MLB. What MLB is doing is certainly not a "normal" season. But better than no season. In college football, the Big Ten and the Pac-12 have just pulled the plug on their seasons. I don't think we will see college football this year and the same thing goes for the NFL. I don't see how they could possibly play at any level.

    Rich
     
  11. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Pretty optimistic. How do they plan to protect their players and coaches? That's the part I can't figure out.

    Rich
     
  12. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Indianapolis sold tickets based on 50% attendance for the rescheduled Indy 500 ... then cut it to 25% attendance. Now they are at 0% attendance - TV only.

    NASCAR ran their races there earlier this year with no fan attendance ... except the few that sat outside of the gate on the sidewalk. Some people pride themselves on attending every race - even if the venue won't let them inside. Indiana is currently around 14 new cases per 100k population per day which puts them close to being a "hot spot". Still too hot to put tens of thousands of fans in a stadium. There are some tracks in states where fans were allowed to attend. A few states have chosen not to allow the events regardless of attendance.
     
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  13. trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000
     
  14. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    From the CDC (Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 "Total number above average by cause")
    covid0812-excess.png
    The excess deaths since February 1st listed by the cause of death reported. Note the high number of "Alzheimer disease and dementia" (23,052) which would relate to the elderly who died without much further investigation. "Hypertensive diseases" is normally a leading cause of death. The chart represents 71,627 excess deaths.

    I would expect a high number of excess respiratory disease deaths if COVID is undercounted. Medical professionals should be at least close to the cause of death - even if COVID was not identified. But the other causes are more common and I can see where a Alzheimer patient with an unknown respiratory illness would get counted as dying of Alzheimer's.

    BTW: New York City has 3,586 of their 7,333 excess deaths classified as "Ischemic heart disease".
     
  15. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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  16. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    And you all were telling me no way we hit 300,000.... haven't yet - but I bet we will.

    BTW - get your flu shots when they become available.
     
  17. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Easily ...
    covid0812-deathtotal.png
     
  18. NYDutch

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    Our doctor told my wife yesterday to wait until October to get our flu shots so the effectiveness will last later into the spring. I hadn't consider the effective life of the flu vaccines, but it's something I'm looking into.
     
  19. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    That actually may make some sense.
     
  20. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Key Facts About Seasonal Flu Vaccine

    When should I get vaccinated?
    You should get a flu vaccine before flu viruses begins spreading in your community, since it takes about two weeks after vaccination for antibodies to develop in the body and provide protection against flu. Make plans to get vaccinated early in fall, before flu season begins. CDC recommends that people get a flu vaccine by the end of October. Getting vaccinated later, however, can still be beneficial and vaccination should continue to be offered throughout the flu season, even into January or later.

    Getting vaccinated early (for example, in July or August) is likely to be associated with reduced protection against flu infection later in the flu season, particularly among older adults.
     
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