The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    36,250
    2,051
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    I just looked at Wyandotte County. I can see why you feel the way you do. But, you still use masks in the same manner I do. As most folks here use them. I'm not sure what we are arguing about.

    Rich
     
  2. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    51,089
    2,315
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    My wife wants to go to the beach ... so the past two weekends we went to the beach, looked around and left without swimming. Once she got there the overwhelming number of people without masks set her on edge (and that was on the walkways away from the water with people passing close to each other). Certainly one of those times where we wished our masks protected us. There were a fair number of people wearing masks and no one objected to our masks. But it was uncomfortable seeing mostly unmasked faces.
     
  3. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    51,089
    2,315
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    107 of the 406 deaths in Kansas occurred in Kansas City. I have a hard time treating that number casually. But as long as masks are worn as much as practical I believe we are on the same page. I tend to wear mine more than other people.
     
  4. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    36,250
    2,051
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    That would disturb me too. I haven't thought about a beach this summer at all. I have seen people try to walk into stores while not masked and it gets ugly from time to time. Most of the time they just forget to put the mask on. I do that a lot. And I get yelled at each time. I have yet to see anybody actually refuse to wear a mask.

    Rich
     
  5. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

    7,199
    189
    Apr 22, 2002
    Kansas City KS
    As I said - most of those KCK deaths were at the beginning in Longterm care facilities. For at least the past 3 months, the big news about C19 spiking is in KCMO at least locally.

    I'm not saying that Kansas hasn't had any deaths - but our population density (or lack thereof except in "large"urban areas or where meatpacking plants are located) has tended to damp down the spread pretty well. We have COUNTIES whose size are approaching some States area out east - you can imagine the population density in those counties . Out in Southwest Kansas - you can LITERALLY drive 200 miles in any direction before you cross an Interstate highway (the 2 lanes out there are built to Interstate standards except for number of lanes / median). Only states that can compare to that level are Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, North and SOuth Dakota, Wyoming, Montana , and Alaska.
     
  6. billsharpe

    billsharpe Hall Of Fame

    3,151
    151
    Jan 25, 2007
    Southern...
    Eating out in the street doesn't appeal to me at all. I'll stick with takeout and delivery, which has worked pretty well for the past few months. Usually it's too cool to eat outside in Santa Monica, at least at night; this week it's been too hot.
     
  7. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    51,089
    2,315
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    covid-kc.png
    (Deaths above, Confirm Cases below)
    covid-kc2.png

    We had a county with a huge number of positive cases due to a meat packing plant. Another county started COVID with about 20 nursing home deaths (and none outside of those homes). The meet plant county still leads the state in cases per population. The nursing home county has had enough other deaths that "all our deaths are at two addresses" has been lost in the statistics.
     
  8. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    36,250
    2,051
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    I've always enjoyed al fresco dining in Manhatten. But, to dine on a hot day under a tent on an asphalt parking lot? Fuggedaboutit!

    Rich
     
  9. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

    25,086
    1,583
    Nov 13, 2006
    Yeah been to hot here to eat out. Have a few times before this heat wave and felt fine. I eat a bit earlier than many do at one particular restaurant so not many people even at the restaurant till I’m about to leave and they have a dinning patio that’s always there that has expanded a bit into a walkway that goes between some buildings. I do like good Mexican food.


    James, the beach thing... how windy was it? It doesn’t seem like COVID is hitting beach cities (Manhattan beach for example) as much as other areas and I have a feeling that’s due to it usually being fairly breezy at the beaches. No chance for long term exposure because the virus can’t linger... like it can and does indoors at say a restaurant....
     
  10. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

    7,199
    189
    Apr 22, 2002
    Kansas City KS

    And you have the guts to say that my not wanting to wear a mask outside is "unhealthy / will spread the virus / etc." . Well, which is it ? Anybody that has spent a reasonable amount of time in the Great Plains knows that the only reason the wind stops is because a new weather system is coming in from a different direction. This phenomen is not confined to the coast.
     
  11. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    36,250
    2,051
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    I enjoy good Mexican food too. Finding a good Mexican restaurant in NJ seems to be nearly impossible, kinda like finding a good Italian restaurant.

    Your assumptions about the beaches seem to be spot on.

    Rich
     
  12. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

    25,086
    1,583
    Nov 13, 2006
    I’ve never once said you need to wear a mask outside unless you are in a close proximity to many other people. Like in a demonstration where everyone is six inches apart. I never wear a mask on a walk I’m never close enough to anyone to worry about it. I’ve said that many times. You need to wear it when your next to people you don’t live with and when inside buildings that aren’t yours basically. Like a supermarket. I have said you seem to wear the mask when you need to! The Santa Monica ticket thing, I even mentioned you wouldn’t get one because you do follow the rules that they enacted.

    I’ve also said many times I don’t get people who wear masks while in their car etc...

    I do also wonder if beach air kills the thing faster as well. We know humidity alone doesn’t seem to...
     
  13. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    51,089
    2,315
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    My comments about masks at the beach were not intended to be scientific. I was commenting on our comfort level being around so many people who were being complacent about masks. The general rule is to wear a mask if indoors and outdoors if you can't social distance. The city had the restrooms and changing areas posted "mask required" and had closed some buildings. Outdoors they (and the state) were relying on social distancing.

    What made the mrs and me uncomfortable was that people were not social distancing. We were on heavy traveled sidewalks with groups of people closer than 6ft from each other pushing past slower walkers and through opposing groups of walkers. By rule "no social distance possible" means wear a mask. It was mainly the walk to the beach that was the issue. When we got to the lakefront we found a less traveled spot where she could get her feet wet and stay 6ft away from the masses.

    I am not arguing the science - I am commenting on the comfort level. My wife felt it more than me but it was like walking a gauntlet where every unmasked person was pulling a trigger on a gun. I don't know how many of those hundreds of people had bullets or if their gun fired if they would hit me or my wife. Such a feeling took the relaxation out of the trip.

    Science might say that only three percent of the people in that particular county have tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic and less than a fraction of a percent are currently contagious and don't know that they are. But science also says wear a mask when closer than six feet. Even outdoors.
     
  14. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    51,089
    2,315
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    BTW: We are still not doing politics. Such discussion remains subject to removal.
     
  15. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

    25,086
    1,583
    Nov 13, 2006
    I hear ya. Was simply curios because if the wind is blowing from the water inland and you are on the beac and no one is upwind of you, I’d feel safe... physics says that in that case you aren’t getting any air anyone else is breathing. But to get there, that is a different story if everyone is bunched together.. and can you be sure the wind is always blowing in your favor....social distancing is key to help that...

    I would like to see some studies on winds affects though. I’m guessing it decreases no matter what your chances the stronger the wind, even if you are down wind of someone who has it, vs just standing still near them.

    Just like I have been wondering about the studies about different masks effectiveness.... one study suggesting you created more smaller droplets with some of the tube masks mlb players are using, but i didn’t see it answered if that was necessarily a bad thing, because if that causes a more spread out dispersion, could that then lower someone’s dosage from that person and if dosage amount makes a big difference than that can still make a big difference. Also, when the droplets are smaller, will this cause the virus to die in the air faster than when droplets are larger in this case? There are a lot of places to drill into on studies such as this.
     
  16. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    51,089
    2,315
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    I didn't check to see which way the wind was blowing, nor the wind speed. :)
     
  17. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

    15,507
    452
    Jan 18, 2007
    Northern...
    As I posted out in May here, in California as explained in March by Governor Newsom the goal of the Great Economic Lockdown of 2020 was to slow the spread of Covid-19 cases during the first months of the Coronavirus Crisis. That allowed time to organize enough hospital beds to handle both Covid-19 cases and the normal flow of cases due to other illnesses (you know, cancer, strokes, heart attacks, auto accidents, etc.) plus try to acquire enough supplies.

    As I understood it, then we would reopen with restrictions while we try to stabilize things as the surge hit. Well, here we are as of yesterday:

    [​IMG]

    I don't keep track of the numbers of positive tests for cases because they don't tell me anything. Some people have been tested numerous times, others like me have never been tested. I do believe that the hospitalizations numbers indicate a success. Deaths are are at 11,821 which for a state with 40 million people is less than 3/100ths of 1%. California has 250,000-300,000 deaths a year with around half being over-65. The doesn't seem like a huge threat, albeit it likely will be an increase..
     
  18. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    36,250
    2,051
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    The thing they worry about is the virus going completely berserk and overwhelming hospitals. If that happens math won't help.

    Rich
     
  19. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    51,089
    2,315
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    I agree. In my area I'd consider the situation to be "stable". But calling it stable makes it sound like the current numbers are acceptable. phrelin's chart for California shows a low point of 3000 hospitalizations in May and a peak of over 7000 in July. Seeing the total drop below 5000 is good but that is still a lot of pressure on the hospital systems.

    My concern is that people will see the trend down and forget that the number is still high. Yes, it has been worse, but "stable" does not mean good. Should we look at the confirmed cases dropping below 45000 per day (7 day average) and break out the champagne? Should we look at the deaths leveling off around 1000 per day (7 day average) and throw a party at a local bar? I don't think so. A thousand people dying every day is better than 2000 but it isn't "good".
    covid0821-confirmed.png
    covid0821-deaths.png
    Below is the path that we are on if the trends continue. Red curves up if the number of deaths increases, green if the country holds steady at 1039 deaths per day, blue if we drop the death count by 1% per day through the end of the year. At this point seeing a sustained 1% per day drop would be optimistic. But there should be no champagne or parties to celebrate 250k dead.
    covid0821-deathtotal.png

    Fortunately most of the people getting infected now are young and will survive. The death rate (percent of confirmed that have died) has dropped. But that "drop" is more an effect of the large increase in confirmed cases and not a large decrease in deaths. The next confirmed case increase will come as colleges and schools reopen. Young people who are not immune but are more likely to survive.

    No, not time to celebrate yet.
     
  20. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    36,250
    2,051
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    "...are young and will survive" after infecting how many family members? That's the part nobody wants to talk about except the scientists. I keep seeing people who seem to think that won't/can't happen. It can and it will happen. We're seeing it now in the colleges. I don't think the virus cares one bit about how healthy you are or how old you are. Yes, younger, healthier folks will probably survive if we open everything up but at what cost?

    Herd immunity seems impossible without losing hundreds of thousands of people. Even scientists can't come up with the number of people that would have to be infected to achieve herd immunity. And the more people that get infected, the more people die. But that might be the only way to stop this thing. Or wait for a vaccine that actually works well. If that ever happens.

    Rich
     

Share This Page

spam firewall

Advertisements