The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    "You pay your money and take your chances" - Yes with univeristies and colleges coming back (and the inevitable close, maskless, large parties, you ARE seeing a massive spike in infections. Most of them will probably recover OK, and continue on. Some may get more serious cases of C-19, and end up in the hospital / dead. it's the way of the world. The ones who don't catch it are A - not going to the parties or associating with anyone that does. B- lucky enough that their immune system already responds to (there are some lucky people who were born with or acquired immunity to a close relative of C-19).

    About all the rest of us can do is keep following your lockdown routines. Mask, wash hands often, avoid crowds where possible, social distancing to the best of your ability in the situation. Keep your friends / social circle tight and be open with each other to be honest about it. And wait for a vaccine that works.

    And if you're unlucky like some of us with underlying conditions - be as stringent as you can to avoid it.
     
    Rich likes this.
  2. Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

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    Actions have consequences. Sometimes, those consequences are unplanned, unintended, and unexpected.
     
  3. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    I haven't seen anything that has reduced below 70% the estimate of population needing to be infected to achieve herd immunity. In doing some rough calculations in mid-May I came up with this chart:

    [​IMG]

    Today I think the total number could be cut by 30% because we've gotten a better handle on treatment. However, today we were at "only" 176,000 deaths.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2020
  4. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    The reformatory (prison) in my hometown of Hutchinson KS has 529+ confirmed cases (out of a population of about 1500), the vast majority being asymptomatic. This matters to me because my sister's fiance works out there directing work crews of inmates. She is the one that works as a Ks state Driver's license Examiner - and she has her own set of underlying conditions (fibramylgia for one). At least her primary care is aware of her condition and isn't panicing (Starla regularly has symptoms of C-19 that are really related to her underlying problems).
     
  5. jimmie57

    jimmie57 Hall Of Fame

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    My son discovered something last night that will probably stay changed from now on.
    Tennis
    Without Linesmen on the corners.
    The computer that they have been using for disputes is now going to do the job of about 10 people. Calling the corners in or out and if the ball touched the net on the serve.
     
  6. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    That 70% would be about 225,000,000 people who would have to be infected to achieve herd immunity. The WHO is guesstimating a 3.4% death rate of those who contract C19 worldwide. That works out to 7.5 million deaths. I'll go with your estimate and I think that's low. The worldwide estimate might be skewed by how badly we are handling the pandemic compared to most countries. But, can you imagine sitting down one day and saying, "That's "only" 10,000,000 deaths"? I hope it doesn't come to that. Those 176,000 deaths don't affect everybody and we can actually make an argument for those deaths being inconsequential when measured against the population, but ten million deaths? I would think that would affect most of us in some way.

    Rich
     
  7. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I hope to see balls and strikes called electronically in MLB games one of these days. There have been tests done in the minor leagues and it seems to work well. They'd have to keep an ump behind the plate, obviously.

    Rich
     
  8. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    US population is 334 million. 10 million is close to 3%. Currently 3.11% of confirmed cases have died.

    This is one of those moments when I hope the numbers are way off. Looking at the community spread testing in Indiana (a scientific study done early in the pandemic to estimate how many people in the community were positive beyond the symptomatic/known contact tested population) I would say that we have drastically undercounted the number of positive cases. Or at least that was true at the time the study was done. No one can say if the numbers are off now as much as they were the week of that study. Looking at the increased death by all causes numbers I would say that COVID-19 deaths have also been undercounted.

    3.11% is based on the numbers we have since the beginning of the pandemic. The current seven day average of new confirmed cases is dropping much faster than the current seven day average of reported deaths. Last reported day was 43,707 cases 1,042 deaths or 2.38%. Do that math a week ago and the percentage would have been 1.97% for those seven days.

    We need numbers that look better - but we also need numbers that ARE better. "Only 10 million" is a horrible thought. Current numbers put us on track for 11 million cases by the end of the year and 312k deaths (or 2.8%). Slowing the spread until we have a vaccine that will reduce the death rate is critical.
     
  9. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Yup, slowing the spread is essential. And that's not gonna happen unless just about everybody adheres to the protocols. We should be looking at what other countries have done, that's the template we need, I think.

    Rich
     
  10. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    I think we need to stop calling it lockdown. No one is really being told never leave your house, not now, and not really ever. I think we need to transition to being COVID safe. It’s silly, but calling it something that doesn’t sound authoritarian and sounds more protective may encourage more people to be less stubborn.

    It’s really not hard to

    “Wear Masks, wash hands often, avoid crowds where possible, social distancing to the best of your ability in the situation. Keep your friends / social circle tight and be open with each other to be honest about it. “

    As you said. It’s all I have ever been saying. And it’s what the real doctors have been saying all along as well...
     
    Rich likes this.
  11. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    The early days in March were more of a lockdown. Mostly "strong encouragement" to follow rules. The ask of most governors was "lockdown" despite the lack of any enforcement in most places.
     
  12. NYDutch

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    My wife is currently in more of a real "lockdown". Last week she was notified of a possible Covid-19 exposure that occurred while she was at a doctors appointment. Deducting the days since the exposure, she's quarantined to our cottage and property except for verified medical appointments until this coming Wednesday. She received a long detailed legal notice from the county health department by both email and snail mail, and she gets called at random times twice a day to verify where she is and how she's feeling. She's supposed to stay distanced from me and anyone else, so she's staying in the cottage while I'm still in our motorhome. We do sit distanced outside sometimes and talk, and we text a lot. We'll be happy when we can get back to normal life though!
     
  13. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    The Portland Maine Press Herald story yesterday headlined Maine CDC now links 53 COVID-19 cases to Millinocket wedding reception reported:

    A woman who did not attend the reception died on Friday after contracting COVID-19 from a person who did attend the event, health authorities said.​

    It was an August 7 wedding. Maine is more successful in its contact tracing program than many states and thus was able to determine the contact series that resulted in the death. So it doesn't surprise me that a Business Insider story about the Maine efforts and failures in other states ended with:

    "Contact tracing is the wrong tool for the wrong job at the wrong time," Dr. David Lakey, the former state health commissioner of Texas, said in the [New York] Times' report.​

    I'm sure the family of the woman - who wasn't at the wedding reception but died because others were there to make the bride and groom feel properly celebrated - understands the priorities. Certainly some Texas officials do. [​IMG]
     
    MysteryMan likes this.
  14. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I hope she's okay, this is something I've wondered about. Good to see they stay on top of things. Just what I'd expect from NY state.

    Rich
     
  15. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I read both links and I don't understand why Dr. Lakey was quoted. Seems like the contact tracing in Maine worked as it should. Or did I miss something as usual?

    Rich
     
  16. NYDutch

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    She's feeling ok so far, and her doctor thinks the likelihood of infection is quite low since both she and the since positive tested patient were both masked and well separated while in the waiting room. With just a couple of quarantine days left, we're pretty confident she's fine. We're happy with the precautions though, and that the health officials are really taking this seriously as they should be.
     
  17. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I can't say enough about how well NY and NJ have handled things. Both states went thru hell at first. Good leadership.
    Rich
     
  18. scooper

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    Wasn't that Cuomo who had the "Brilliant" idea of sending C-19 patients to long term care facilities ? After a decision like that, he had nowhere to go but up....
     
  19. trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    Sort of.
    AP story from 7/6/2020
     
    Rich likes this.
  20. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    So it wasn't entirely Cuomo's fault ....
     

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