The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    As the Governor, he was responsible. And he said that.
    But tracking back the deaths, it wasn't from the patients that were transferred, but from staff who didn't know they had COVID-19.
     
  2. NYDutch

    NYDutch DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Those patients were only supposed to be returned to long term care facilities that were equipped to handle COVID-19 care per the CDC guidelines at the time. An investigation by the state health department found that most of the assisted living facility infections were caused by infected employees and vendors, not returning patients. If hospitals were releasing patients to facilities not equipped to care for them to free up beds, I don't see how the governor is to blame for that.
     
  3. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    But blame him they will. What they should be doing is emulating what the state of NY did. How hard can that be? This isn't rocket science, we have the answers right in front of us. There is no easy, quick fix. What needs to be done takes time.

    Rich
     
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  4. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Of course, he has some responsibility, he is the Captain of his ship. And he recognizes that.

    Rich
     
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  5. trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    Others in command in recent months haven't recognized that they are ultimately responsible.
     
  6. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Well, we do have some new information. According to several stories including 2 more people have been reinfected with the coronavirus, European scientists say, a day after the first confirmed reinfection in Hong Kong it has been scientifically confirmed that people are getting reinfected after about 3-4 months. It appears symptoms are likely to be mild-to-asymptomatic, though as time goes on we might learn that exceptions do occur.

    What is clear in my mind (muddled though it may be) is that Covid-19 and the "the flu" are not anything alike. It may be that Covid-19 will prove to have much in common with the common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, which cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses like the common cold.

    IMHO that spells trouble for the idea of a protect-everybody-for-a-year vaccine. On the other hand, a vaccine could reduce the number of colds from the common human coronaviruses, so who knows?
     
  7. NYDutch

    NYDutch DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I haven't read the details of all reported reinfection cases yet, but so far it seems to be happening mostly to folks that had milder cases the first time around. That would seem to suggest that their systems simply didn't build up enough antibodies or develop enough of the T-cells needed for long term resistance. If a vaccine boosts the production of the antibodies and/or T-cells, then we should be in pretty good shape over time.
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2020
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  8. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Such as the "ultimate" person? The person I was referring to seems to have no problems admitting responsibility. Don't really know much about him but I like the way he has handled the virus crisis in his state.

    Rich
     
  9. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I'm not sure it will kill the idea of vaccines, I do think if they keep seeing reinfections herd immunity will have to be rethought. I wouldn't get my hopes up about the reinfections always being mild, we don't know enough about this to be sure that's true. This whole nightmare has been a learning exercise.

    Rich
     
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  10. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Speaking of learning, this stuff drives me nuts. NBC news headline today 6 feet may not always be enough distance to protect from COVID-19, new report suggests.

    The NBC story summarizes "The current guidance for safe social distancing may not be enough to stop the spread of COVID-19, a new analysis suggests."

    South China Morning Post March 9 headline Coronavirus can travel twice as far as official ‘safe distance’ and stay in air for 30 minutes, Chinese study finds. The March SCMP story told us:

    "The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists."

    [​IMG]

    The "4.5 metres" is approximately 15 feet.

    Can the time distance between March 9 and August 26 - 170 days or nearly 6 monhts - also be measured in unnecessary deaths?
     
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2020
  11. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Perhaps. I saw the above some time ago, I think it's correct but why haven't we seen more about this? And why did the speculation about the virus being airborne stop so suddenly? I know these things make the virus seem even worse than we think it is but is the information being suppressed? Airborne droplets can hang in the air for a long time, if that's that's what it is, it's a lot worse than we've been told.

    Rich
     
  12. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I remember seeing the bus diagram in late March ... and the new article (and study) reflect something I have been repeating for a long time.

    The guidance is NOT "just wear a mask" or "just stay 6 ft apart" or "just wash your hands" or "just don't touch your face" or "just stay home if you are sick". It is ALL of these efforts.

    I cringed when I saw "OR" in the recommendation to wear a mask OR stay six feet apart. Do both. Do it all!

    (Ok, I'll cut you some slack and won't complain about the mask if you are in a private space not shared by people who are not "in your bubble".)
     
  13. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    We should talk about the new CDC recommendations but I don't know how to do that without bringing politics into the conversation. Seems like we're seeing coercion on some level. From on high.

    Rich
     
  14. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Nothing good happens when Dr Fauci takes a day off. And yes, finding a way to discuss without politics can be difficult.

    Our county health officials are openly disagreeing with the new recommendation. I have not looked to see the published reasoning for the change. Positivity rates have dropped recently (at least in my area) so perhaps they want to save the tests for people more likely to test positive?

    My county had a huge spike in testing when testing became available for asymptomatic people. The level of tests fell of since then and now my county is concerned that people who should be tested are waiting for symptoms - even though the local and state recommendation is to get tested if there has been contact with a known positive or symptomatic person. The length of time for a test to return has also reduced people asking for tests - why should the asymptomatic get tested if they will find out results by either getting symptoms or waiting for none to appear before the official test results come?

    The county's and state's testing recommendations have not changed. But it seems that there are less people getting tested unless they are required to get a test by employers or the health department.
     
  15. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    Yep - when your "quarantine period" is the same or shorter than when test results come back - why bother testing ?
     
  16. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Here is the CDC guidance as of today:
    covid-cdc0827testing.png

    CNN reported yesterday [source]
    Here's what the CDC website said previously: "Testing is recommended for all close contacts of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Because of the potential for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, it is important that contacts of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection be quickly identified and tested."

    The CDC changed the site on Monday. Here's what it says now: "If you have been in close contact (within 6 feet) of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or State or local public health officials recommend you take one."

    It seems that today's wording is more supportive of getting tested ... not the previous wording where testing was "recommended", but not the Monday wording (which still had wording supporting state/local recommended testing). I do not see a "you should not be tested" recommendation from the CDC - just a weakening of the "you should be tested" rhetoric.
     
  17. trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    I heard on the radio today, that the testing guidelines were changed because of back-ups at testing facilities (I think the host said that was from the VP's Chief of Staff who said "we had the testing changed because of the back-ups").
    And not trying to get into the politics, but doctors and scientist should be deciding on when testing is required/recommended.
    The radio host also had another person with them who said that the labs do not have a back-log of testing (they did back in June/early-July, but not anymore).
    No matter what side of the political fence you're on, it doesn't make a difference to the virus. It is as non-political as it can be. And the decisions made to battle this virus needs to be based on science and not politics.
     
  18. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    There’s a new 15 min test that just got approved. That could finally be the game changer test that can make dealing with this a lot easier.

    The important part, it’s also very inexpensive. Like $10 or so maybe. That’s huge imho.
     
  19. trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    Let's hope it is more reliable than the one Abbott Labs (same company as this new one) released in May that was only 50% accurate.

    I understand this new test was tested on 102 people.
     
  20. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    200,000 deaths ... my charts updated (Johns Hopkins data)
    covid0922-deaths.png
    covid0922-confirmed.png

    And now the predictions ...
    covid0922-deathspredict.png
    covid0922-confirmedpredict.png
     

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