The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    And here are my charts kept to measure the effectiveness of California policies:

    [​IMG]

    Within California I am comfortable that these two numbers are reasonably accurate and reliable.The hospitalization numbers indicate that the intent of policy put in place last spring to keep the stress on hospitals down worked.

    As noted before, I don't graph the number of cases as the testing policies even within California counties vary so much IMHO they make the number of cases a meaningless number - across the U.S. even more so. But for the record California had 787,470 "confirmed cases" which is 1.97% of the population which is about the same percentage as the U.S. both 2%± of the population.

    The number of deaths is 0.038% of the state's population compared to the 200,000 for the U.S. which is 0.061% of the U.S. population. California ranks in the middle of the states (the median, not the mean) relative to deaths-per-capita:

    [​IMG]
     
  2. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    All in all, I'd rather live in KS right now than in California. Although the states below Kansas are looking pretty good too...
     
  3. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    81 deaths per 100k population puts your county ahead of all but 8 states and DC. 21 deaths per 100k puts Kansas in 42nd place (or 10th best). Kansas City MO has 21 deaths per 100k.

    My county has 52 deaths per 100k - about the same as the entire state which in 19th place (33rd best) nationwide.

    Fortunately there is not a large spike in deaths to go along with the spike in confirmed cases nationally. Unfortunately the daily death toll is still high (nationally).
     
  4. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Eight million confirmed cases ... nationally death rates remain reasonably stable around 750 per day.
    covid1017-confirmed.png covid1017-deaths.png
    A look at the future:
    covid1017-confirmedpredict.png covid1017-deathspredict.png

    As for closer to my home (Indiana) death rates are beginning to climb.
    covid1017-confirmedindiana.png covid1017-deathsindiana.png

    I don't like the idea of "accepting" 750 deaths per day nationally. Fortunately none of the 3918 deaths in my state or 129 deaths in my county was someone I knew - and no one close to me is one of the confirmed cases. The death rate is climbing (in Indiana) less than the confirmed cases rate but it is climbing. And yes, hospitalizations are up in my area and authorities are considering opening a field hospital.

    Take care.
     
  5. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    California’s positivity rate tied the all-time low this past week as one of 11 states, plus DC, with a positivity rate below 3% (in 14 states, the rate is above 10%). It's clear that the Governor's goal of keeping hospitalizations down by shutting down the economy worked extremely well as they were trying to avoid going over 15,000 and didn't even hit half that:

    [​IMG]

    I wasn't sure whether the death rate would have a similar curve, but it appears it has albeit a few weeks later:

    [​IMG]

    Though I know this could be a whole lot worse, it's still sad:

    [​IMG]

    Governor Newsom's conservative* reopening seems to be working. Basically by creating a tier system based on local performance they have shifted the responsibility to the counties and their residents - if the county doesn't want to enforce behavior rules they can choose that but reopening will be determined by the tiers:

    [​IMG]

    Today they announced reopening rules for theme parks. There will be two separate categories -- one for larger parks, one for smaller operations.

    Smaller theme parks can resume operations for counties in the state's Tier 3 reopening designation with capacity limited to 25 percent or 500 visitors, whichever is smaller. may only open outdoor attractions and ticket sales are limited to visitors within the county. They may only open outdoor attractions and ticket sales are limited to visitors within the county.

    All theme parks can resume operations in Tier 4 (minimal) with a limited capacity of 25 percent. The parks must implement a reservation system and screen guests for COVID-19 symptoms. Face coverings are mandatory through the park unless eating or drinking.

    The state also will allow attendance at sporting events in counties that have reached Tier 3 with a capacity limit of 20 percent. Counties in the least restrictive tier can have capacity at 25 percent. Ticket sales must be in advance and face coverings are required.

    The new guidelines mean Disneyland in Orange County's Anaheim and Universal Studios-Hollywood in Los Angeles County's Universal City will have to wait. Orange County with a case rate of 4.6 remains in the state’s red second tier for reopening, Los Angeles County with a case rate of 7.6 remains in the most restrictive purple tier. Already complaints and criticism are forthcoming. But the complainers have a problem.

    San Francisco County which has the highest population density and the highest testing rate has a case rate of 0.8 within its 900,000± people who mostly cooperated while grumbling. California officials simply point out that San Francisco has had 15.3 deaths per 100,000, Orange County 44.6, Los Angeles County 68.1.

    *You may note that I used the word "conservative" with regard to Newsom's policy. That's consistent with both the medical meaning "intention to control rather than eliminate a condition" and with the idea of conserving people's lives and health.​
     
  6. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I like your curves, phrelin. I wish ours were that good.
     

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