The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    And here are my charts kept to measure the effectiveness of California policies:

    [​IMG]

    Within California I am comfortable that these two numbers are reasonably accurate and reliable.The hospitalization numbers indicate that the intent of policy put in place last spring to keep the stress on hospitals down worked.

    As noted before, I don't graph the number of cases as the testing policies even within California counties vary so much IMHO they make the number of cases a meaningless number - across the U.S. even more so. But for the record California had 787,470 "confirmed cases" which is 1.97% of the population which is about the same percentage as the U.S. both 2%± of the population.

    The number of deaths is 0.038% of the state's population compared to the 200,000 for the U.S. which is 0.061% of the U.S. population. California ranks in the middle of the states (the median, not the mean) relative to deaths-per-capita:

    [​IMG]
     
  2. scooper

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    All in all, I'd rather live in KS right now than in California. Although the states below Kansas are looking pretty good too...
     
  3. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    81 deaths per 100k population puts your county ahead of all but 8 states and DC. 21 deaths per 100k puts Kansas in 42nd place (or 10th best). Kansas City MO has 21 deaths per 100k.

    My county has 52 deaths per 100k - about the same as the entire state which in 19th place (33rd best) nationwide.

    Fortunately there is not a large spike in deaths to go along with the spike in confirmed cases nationally. Unfortunately the daily death toll is still high (nationally).
     
  4. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Eight million confirmed cases ... nationally death rates remain reasonably stable around 750 per day.
    covid1017-confirmed.png covid1017-deaths.png
    A look at the future:
    covid1017-confirmedpredict.png covid1017-deathspredict.png

    As for closer to my home (Indiana) death rates are beginning to climb.
    covid1017-confirmedindiana.png covid1017-deathsindiana.png

    I don't like the idea of "accepting" 750 deaths per day nationally. Fortunately none of the 3918 deaths in my state or 129 deaths in my county was someone I knew - and no one close to me is one of the confirmed cases. The death rate is climbing (in Indiana) less than the confirmed cases rate but it is climbing. And yes, hospitalizations are up in my area and authorities are considering opening a field hospital.

    Take care.
     
  5. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    California’s positivity rate tied the all-time low this past week as one of 11 states, plus DC, with a positivity rate below 3% (in 14 states, the rate is above 10%). It's clear that the Governor's goal of keeping hospitalizations down by shutting down the economy worked extremely well as they were trying to avoid going over 15,000 and didn't even hit half that:

    [​IMG]

    I wasn't sure whether the death rate would have a similar curve, but it appears it has albeit a few weeks later:

    [​IMG]

    Though I know this could be a whole lot worse, it's still sad:

    [​IMG]

    Governor Newsom's conservative* reopening seems to be working. Basically by creating a tier system based on local performance they have shifted the responsibility to the counties and their residents - if the county doesn't want to enforce behavior rules they can choose that but reopening will be determined by the tiers:

    [​IMG]

    Today they announced reopening rules for theme parks. There will be two separate categories -- one for larger parks, one for smaller operations.

    Smaller theme parks can resume operations for counties in the state's Tier 3 reopening designation with capacity limited to 25 percent or 500 visitors, whichever is smaller. may only open outdoor attractions and ticket sales are limited to visitors within the county. They may only open outdoor attractions and ticket sales are limited to visitors within the county.

    All theme parks can resume operations in Tier 4 (minimal) with a limited capacity of 25 percent. The parks must implement a reservation system and screen guests for COVID-19 symptoms. Face coverings are mandatory through the park unless eating or drinking.

    The state also will allow attendance at sporting events in counties that have reached Tier 3 with a capacity limit of 20 percent. Counties in the least restrictive tier can have capacity at 25 percent. Ticket sales must be in advance and face coverings are required.

    The new guidelines mean Disneyland in Orange County's Anaheim and Universal Studios-Hollywood in Los Angeles County's Universal City will have to wait. Orange County with a case rate of 4.6 remains in the state’s red second tier for reopening, Los Angeles County with a case rate of 7.6 remains in the most restrictive purple tier. Already complaints and criticism are forthcoming. But the complainers have a problem.

    San Francisco County which has the highest population density and the highest testing rate has a case rate of 0.8 within its 900,000± people who mostly cooperated while grumbling. California officials simply point out that San Francisco has had 15.3 deaths per 100,000, Orange County 44.6, Los Angeles County 68.1.

    *You may note that I used the word "conservative" with regard to Newsom's policy. That's consistent with both the medical meaning "intention to control rather than eliminate a condition" and with the idea of conserving people's lives and health.​
     
  6. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I like your curves, phrelin. I wish ours were that good.
     
  7. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    The problem with those curves is that we're inevitably headed for a second surge, I just don't know when. Whether Californians can stand to experience tier rises in their counties - more shutdowns after reopenings - I really don't know. Newsom's Administration has done a good job gaining an understanding of the virus, but people are another animal.
     
  8. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Where we are ... The seven day average is passing the previous peak and the death rate is climbing.
    covid1024-confirmed.png covid1024-deaths.png
    Where we are going ...
    covid1024-confirmedpredict.png covid1024-deathspredict.png

    My state of Indiana remains a hot spot ... Both cases and deaths are climbing rapidly.
    covid1024-confirmedindiana.png covid1024-deathsindiana.png
    Finally a look at the county where I live ...
    covid1024-confirmedelkhart.png

    On a more personal note ... one of my co-workers died from the virus this past week. I had not worked with her directly in a long time but the company is feeling her loss. The death toll is no longer just names I don't recognize or numbers on the news.
     
  9. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Sorry to hear that. This week my sister reported losing a friend to Covid, the first report from our family. People do seem to feel a sense of upset.
     
  10. Nov 1, 2020 #810 of 849
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Still climbing ...
    covid1031-confirmed.jpg covid1031-deaths.png
    Predictions ...
    covid1031-confirmedpredict.png covid1031-deathspredict.png

    Earlier this year (in April for the country, May for my state and June for my county) we hit initial peaks. 28 day averages are shown below and I have scaled the chart to give the initial peaks the same height. The second peak was more than double the first for US cases. The state cases for Indiana are now over three times the initial peak.
    covid1031-curves.png
    As I have noted before the "good news" is that the death peaks are not spiking as much as the confirmed cases. The bad news is that the 28 day average is still around 756 and climbing (the seven day average is 815). We are headed for a third peak (confirmed and deaths). 9 million confirmed, possibly 5 million more by the end of the year. 231 thousand dead, easily 275 thousand by the end of the year.
     
  11. Nov 1, 2020 #811 of 849
    harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    It is notable that a test last week of the University of Oregon football team yielded five false positive results out of five positive results. Better safe than sorry, but not something you want when charting the trends.
     
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  12. Nov 1, 2020 #812 of 849
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Suggesting that 100% of tests are false positives does not account for the death toll. Unless you're going to push some conspiracy theory.
     
  13. Nov 1, 2020 #813 of 849
    scooper

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    I'm not suggesting that 100% of positive test results are false positive, but I believe the percentage is higher than than we are being told. Same for false negatives. The tests we have now are not adequate to the need - not just quantity, but the reliability of the tests.
     
  14. Nov 1, 2020 #814 of 849
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    An early study showed that the infection rate was about 10 times higher than the tested infection rate. This was a result of the testing alogarithm (offering testing only symptomatic patients at the time the study was performed). The study performed community testing beyond the symptomatic and those with contacts with known positives. The testing alogarithm has changed to include non-symptomatic people and contacts.

    Increases in hospitalizations (as well as deaths) are not the result of "false positives". And while no test is 100% accurate one cannot throw out the "false negatives" that are keeping the numbers lower than they should be. One might as well throw out all the numbers and say there is no COVID-19 at all. If one wants to tell a lie, one might as well tell a big one.
     
  15. Nov 1, 2020 #815 of 849
    scooper

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    Personally - just because a current test SAYS someone is positive or negative for C-19, I wouldn't believe they had it UNLESS they were also exhibiting physical symptoms such as fever, loss of taste and/or smell, and the other real symptoms that they ask you about.

    Now, you may have a different opinion, but I just don't believe that the general public (and maybe not the public health workers) are being given the whole truth. Some truth - certainly - enough to make us cower in our houses. But not the whole truth.
     
  16. Nov 1, 2020 #816 of 849
    NYDutch

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    With thousands of people involved in the various testing efforts and methods, who do you think is withholding the "truth"? The numbers do not come from a single source...
     
  17. Nov 1, 2020 #817 of 849
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    It would need to be a massive conspiracy involving thousands of people from both political parties to fake the data. It is much easier to tell the truth than to coordinate thousands of people in every county across the US to tell a lie.
     
  18. Nov 2, 2020 #818 of 849
    NYDutch

    NYDutch DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Exactly! It's the same with the alleged large scale absentee ballot fraud. It would take a massive conspiracy involving members of both parties to pull it off.
     
  19. Nov 2, 2020 #819 of 849
    scooper

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    Everybody is not telling the truth.
     
  20. Nov 2, 2020 #820 of 849
    trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    I'll agree with that!

    Won't mention any by name because then we get into the area of politics.
     

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