The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. Dec 6, 2020 #861 of 926
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Posted with caution ... last weekend was Thanksgiving. Many results were delayed due to the increase in testing and reduced reporting. (In my area a normal Saturday and Sunday have about half the tests performed as a normal weekday and most test results are not returned on weekends and holidays. Other areas may vary.) I expect that next week's figures will be lower as late reported cases and deaths will not cause the chart to peak.
    covid1205-confirmed.png
    covid1205-deaths.png
    Narrowed down to the past 28 days. Note the lower reported deaths on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Late reporting caused a bump this week. I have noticed a bump at the beginning of every month due to the way numbers are reported. Still a lot of deaths - but they did not occur on the day reported.
    covid1205-deaths28day.png

    And now something new (for me). A chart showing the percentage of population that has been confirmed as having the virus. I have also added the percentage of confirmed cases that have led to death and the reported number of deaths per 100K people. (All numbers based on Johns Hopkins reporting.)
    covid1205-confirmedpie.png
     
  2. Dec 6, 2020 #862 of 926
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Nationwide hospitalizations have also climbed. The death rate for those hospitalized is much higher than for "confirmed cases".

    Very few viruses have been eradicated. It took a couple of years for the "Spanish Flu" to subside below pandemic levels - and that was with 1918 medical technology! The "herd" of survivors is growing ... over 8 million people in the US have been confirmed in the past 90 days (2.5% of the population). 10-20 million people should be vaccinated starting in about a week - perhaps more as additional vaccines are approved. (Locally they are recommending vaccination for people who have had COVID if they have been clear for 90 days. Health care workers will receive the vaccine as soon as it is released.) If all goes well we (as a country) should have the virus under control in a few months. And by the time the next flu season rolls around I expect COVID-19 prevention will be part of the formula - just like H1N1 and previous pandemic viruses got cooked into the annual flu shot.
     
  3. Dec 6, 2020 #863 of 926
    scooper

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    I'm getting a C-19 Vaccination as soon as the scheduling will let me.
     
  4. Dec 6, 2020 #864 of 926
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Good to hear. Me too. (But not #metoo - that is something else.)
     
  5. Dec 7, 2020 #865 of 926
    steve053

    steve053 Godfather

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    I like the positivity! Just wonder how quickly people will be "fully" vaccinated. Last I read, two of the three vaccines in stage 3 clinical trials require two separate shots, spaced out by a week. I don't know there is an optimal window for the second shot, or the consequences if the second one is not received.

    While healthcare workers will have the opportunity to receive the vaccine early, I wonder what percent will want more information on long-term health risks before signing up. My guess there will be decent number that will be first in line, but there will be fair amount that won't want to be vaccinated. Many healthcare companies require a flu vaccination, but I'm not aware of any that are going to require a COVID 19 vaccination at this time. I'm sure at some point many (if not most) will require it.

    Then there's the storage. Must be kept at -70 and even -80 degrees C after manufacture, that includes shipping and storage until it's thawed out and used. I'm not aware of any clinics that have that kind of freezer storage. Will need to rely on dry ice; speaking of which, UPS is helping with the manufacture and distribution.

    I hope COVID-19 is part of the annul flu vaccine, but my bet is it will take a few years before that happens.
     
  6. Dec 7, 2020 #866 of 926
    scooper

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    There is only one manufacturer's vaccine that requires the "super cold storage in transit", one requires a bit colder than standard freezer (but common in pharmacies) and one that has no special requirements. All of them will be best used by 5 days after first use.
     
  7. Dec 7, 2020 #867 of 926
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    The Pfizer shots are given 21 days apart, Moderna's are given 28 days apart, and AstraZeneca's about a month apart. Basically when you go in for your first shot (by appointment) you would set the appointment for the second shot. If you miss the second shot you will have some protection but not the full protection expected of receiving both doses on schedule. There are other candidates that are one shot that may receive approval in the future. The first two candidates are 95% effective per their studies, AstraZeneca's is 90% effective at last report.
     
  8. Dec 8, 2020 #868 of 926
    NYDutch

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    The vaccine candidate I'm really hoping comes in at 90% or better effectiveness is the one from Janssen/Johnson & Johnson. If the single dose and standard temperature controls for shipping and storage hold up through the Phase 3 trials currently underway, I think it'll be a game changer.
     
  9. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    The eight day average is setting new records. (2241 was the record from earlier this year.)
    covid1209-deaths.png
    Let's get the vaccine out the door. I am looking forward to being able to say that more people have been vaccinated than there have been confirmed cases.
     
  10. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    US confirmed cases passing 16 million, US deaths about to pass 300k. Seven day averages continue at record levels after a slight bump for delayed reporting around Thanksgiving. We are on our way toward 20 million cases and 330k deaths by the end of the year (18 days away).
    covid1212-confirmed.png
    covid1212-deaths.png
    The past 28 days ... with seven day and 28 day averages.
    covid1212-deaths28day.png
    The average number of deaths attributed to COVID since January 1st.
    covid1212-deaths2020.png
     
  11. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    A mutation of the novel coronavirus that appears to speed its transmission has led British officials to impose the country’s most stringent lockdown since March.
    The variant has mutations that may allow it to replicate and transmit more efficiently, Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland and a scientific adviser to the British government, told the New York Times.

    British officials have said the variant was as much as 70% more transmissible, but that figure is based on modeling and has not been confirmed, Cevik said.

    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said “there’s no evidence to suggest it is more lethal or causes more severe illness,” or that vaccines will be less effective against it, the Associated Press reported.

    source

    2020's got game.

    As for the US:
    covid1219-confirmed.png
    covid1219-deaths.png
    Have a safe Christmas everyone!
     
  12. phrelin

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    South Africa has announced that a new variant of the coronavirus is driving the country’s current resurgence of COVID-19, with higher numbers of infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

    The new strain, known as 501.V2, is dominant among new confirmed infections in South Africa, according to health officials and scientists leading the country’s virus strategy. The variant is different from one that has hit Britain and caused many European nations and Canada to ban travelers from the U.K.

    The new strain appears to be more infectious than the original coronavirus. South African scientists are studying if the vaccines against COVID-19 will also offer protection against the new strain.

    Source

    The news stories from England in James' post and South Africa above make we wonder about what's going on in California right now, as well as about the long term efficacy of vaccines....

    [​IMG]
     
  13. phrelin

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    In California Covid-19 Update: Statewide Available ICU Capacity Falls To 0% On Christmas Day we have a clear example of why California officials tried in the first wave to protect hospital capacity:

    On Friday, director James Gunn tweeted about the heartbreaking trouble a friend’s family had finding treatment at a hospital because of Covid-related overcrowding. “My friend’s father had cancer surgery a week ago,” wrote Gunn. “Two days later he had complications. He went back to the hospital but he couldn’t get a bed because of all the Covid patients…”​

    I don't understand why people think this is ok.
     
  14. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    It isn't ok. I wonder if it is just people who have not been affected by the virus itself and don't see the seriousness. People who didn't have friends or family lost to the virus this year. People who didn't have trouble because medical services were overrun by virus patients and people who think that the virus will never affect them and , if it does, they will either have mild effects or none. (And some that don't even consider their own life worth preserving.)

    Yes, it has been a long year and we have not reached the second peak of deaths (delayed reporting over Christmas is giving lower daily averages that proved to be artificial over Thanksgiving). Hospitals across the country are filling up and in some places are full.

    But over two million people have now been vaccinated. When they get their second shots in a couple weeks we can look forward to having health care workers who are more confident that they won't die rendering aid (as so many heath care workers have already done). Vaccinations will soon be available to the elderly and immune compromised who need it. While being vaccinated should not be used as an excuse to be careless it provides another layer of protection.

    I have family members who would take the vaccine tomorrow if offered to them and some that believe it is all part of an evil plot. It has been an interesting discussion that we avoided (for the most part) over Christmas. All recognize the importance of being safe when not within the bubble of home. And most importantly, we kept the adult conversation away from the kids. It was as normal of a Christmas as possible.

    I have a father in law who basically lost his business this year and was not helped by any of the stimulus efforts. He and his wife will take the vaccine when offered (per their personal doctor's recommendations). I am hopeful that some of his business will come back but for now he has found temporary work. Otherwise my extended family is largely unaffected by the virus.

    I wish I could say the same for everyone in the country or the world. I see the families behind the numbers. It has been a rough year.
     
  15. Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

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    Actions have consequences. Sometimes, those consequences are unplanned, unintended, and unexpected.
     
  16. lparsons21

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    Being elderly with some underlying conditions changed the way I did the holidays this year. Instead of going to family events I stayed home and did a few video calls, some individual, some group. Those went well but it isn’t quite the same.

    I’ll get the vaccine when called but will still practice some social distancing and use a mask for at least some period of time since it will be quite awhile before everyone that will get the vaccine actually has gotten it.

    At my age and with my health issues staying a bit hunkered down isn’t all that different from before all this cranked up.
     
  17. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    As noted, our family skipped Thanksgiving. The numbers in my area were climbing and it just seemed too risky to merge our bubbles. Christmas was harder to move to online only. The numbers in my state have fallen to early November levels. Both my wife and I have been able to work from home the past couple of weeks so we felt that the risks were low. We left it up to the most vulnerable to make the decision - and their opinion was "if you're not home for Christmas you are out of the will". Not quite, but you get the idea.

    Most of the people in attendance were in the same bubble anyways - kids constantly going to the grandparents house to work and help out. The out of county people were the wild cards. But we went into the weekend fully informed. Hopefully 20x20 hindsight won't make us wish we made different decisions.
     
  18. phrelin

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    We still haven't been off our property since March 14 except the three days we were evacuated because of a fire threat (we stayed at our oldest son's already stressed family) and the very brief trip down to City Hall to drop off our ballots in a box outside.

    We did have a long group Zoom call on Christmas with family from the East Coast and West Coast. Not really a substitute for visiting.

    It's true we haven't really changed our habits much, but it does make one weary and irritable at times. But, yeah, we will get the vaccine when it finally becomes available, though it doesn't mean we will be able to change our new "lifestyle" for probably six months or more.

    Oh well. We can see we've seen a pandemic up close. And hopefully it will be another lifetime before something similar appears.
     
  19. phrelin

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    Next week's The New Yorker contains The Plague Year: The mistakes and the struggles behind America’s coronavirus tragedy. Even for The New Yorker it is a very long report as it thoroughly describes the events that began over a year ago and the remarkable 20th-21st Century history of pandemic research leading to the remarkable speed researchers were able to generate a vaccine. It contains a lot of information and history I didn't know or misunderstood.

    If you can't access the story you can download either this PDF which is large because it is 92 pages but very readable or a this PDF which is reduced in print size.
     
  20. Phil T

    Phil T Well-Known Member DBSTalk Club

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