The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

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    What bothers me is the deniers who call the face masks/face coverings either "face diapers" or "snot buckets". I understand where some of the detractors are coming from, but I also had too many years as a machinist, and feel that the face masks is that ounce of protection that easily outweighs the ton of cure. Yes, it bothers me the severe impact Covid has had on the world economy right down to local business. It bothers me that I went through the trouble and paid a price premium of purchasing a home close to my workplace so that I can walk to work, only to be working from home and working long hours from mid-March until the end of June 2021. That means that in the 2½ years that I would have lived in Texas, I would have spent a majority of the time WFHing.

    One of the things that I was looking forward to is the Texas Pinball Festival. I missed it in 2019 because of my work schedule at the time, 2020 was cancelled just a month prior to the event, and now this just prior to Christmas:
    TPF2021 is Canceled
    FULL ARTICLE HERE
     
  2. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    The country would be better off without the constant use of derogatory terms. I won't provide a list (because that would be using the terms) but it seems like our country is trapped in junior high level insults. it is almost as if we are having a competition as to who can be the most insulting person. At least there are vaccines for COVID-19.
     
  3. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    This probably comes from the disrespect bar set in the recent political "debates".
     
  4. Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

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    From December 29th, 2019....
    134591823_233955528091958_5055427294919944997_n.jpg
     
  5. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    I too am worried about next year. I'm drowning my sorrows in egg nog spiked with diet 7UP.
     
  6. Jan 1, 2021 #886 of 932
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Professors rank worst years in US history - and 2020 comes EIGHTH | Daily Mail Online

    Ivy League and Oxbridge university professors have said 2020 ranks only the eighth worst year in US history, behind the peak of the American Civil War in 1862, the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and the Spanish flu pandemic in 1919.

    1. 1862 - The year of the bloodiest battle of the American Civil War
    2. 1929 - The year of the Wall Street crash
    2. 1838 - The year of the Trail of Tears
    4. 1919 - The year of the Spanish flu
    5. 1968 - The year of Martin Luther King Jr.'s assassination
    6. 1962 - The year of the Cuban Missile Crisis
    7. 2001 - The year of the September 11 terrorist attacks
    8. 2020 - The year of the coronavirus pandemic

    Globally:
    1. 1348
    The worst year of the Black Death which to date is the deadliest pandemic in human history with up to 200 million people killed

    2. 1944
    The Nazis murdered six million Jews during the Holocaust in World War II.

    3. 1816
    'The Year Without A Summer,' when a volcanic eruption in Indonesia blocked the sun, temperatures in Europe plunged to the coldest on record and nations suffered major food shortages

    4. 1644
    China's Ming Dynasty collapsed and was replaced by the Qing dynasty sparking conflict.
    In Europe the Thirty Years' War left up to eight million dead.

    5. 410 A.D.
    The Sacking of Rome on 24 August 410 AD was the first time in almost 800 years that Rome fell to a foreign enemy.

    6. 2020

    BTW: 1,818,116 deaths worldwide (so far) 345,747 in the US.
    83,424,446 cases worldwide (so far) 19,968,087 in the US.
     
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  7. Jan 1, 2021 #887 of 932
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    I have a great aunt who’s 97. She lives in Waco TX in a senior place. She got her first vaccine shot 2 days ago.... so far so good. Her doctor told her to get it. She’s had lots of issues over the years. But still living in independent living.
     
  8. Jan 1, 2021 #888 of 932
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    I think that this year will become a mixed bag. People who get vaccinated and wear masks will get mostly back to normal s people who refuse those things will see massive medical issues and much wider spread of this disease. I just hope the people who are so against health don’t cause everything to shut down for those who are being responsible and/or also getting the vaccine.

    Right now I fully believe half the reason California is shut down as much as it is is caused as much by people who don’t take any precautions as it is actual spread at outdoor dinning restaurants etc. they need things to be as minimal as possible because of the people who don’t care. If everyone cared they wouldn’t have shut down dinning outdoors.
     
  9. Jan 1, 2021 #889 of 932
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    The new strains could be a problem. So far no evidence that they are any more fatal than the older strains, but they seem to spread faster. A good thing for the people who WANT COVID-19 to spread faster. Not so good for those professionals fighting to keep people alive.

    The survival rate is over 98% nationwide with the worst peak in death rate being in the first month of the pandemic. Full hospitals and higher infection rates will not help keep that down. And even at "less than 2% fatal" that is a lot of deaths.
     
  10. Jan 1, 2021 #890 of 932
    phrelin

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    Regarding the mutation that spreads faster, I would call attention to this quote from an article in The Atlantic:

    To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.​

    Regarding California, while I recognize that calling December 31 the year's end is an arbitrary designation, here are the charts I keep the middle one of which is very unsettling:

    [​IMG]

    What makes the incredibly fast rise in the 7-day-death-rate is exactly the issue of transmissibility of mutations. We have two reported such mutations, one in Britain and one in South Africa. As soon as I read about the one in Britain I knew we had a problem here because we spend about half on this type of public health research as those other countries do because there is no likely profit in it. We now know the British mutation is here, we just don't know how widespread it is. What we do know is that a higher transmission rate is likely to be far more fatal.
     
  11. Jan 1, 2021 #891 of 932
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    There are and will be some reporting delay issue due to the holidays. We saw that a month ago due to Thanksgiving - which was followed by the first of the month "catch up" reporting. Christmas added a reporting delay and I expect the same for New Years ... so the charts may be a little wonky for a couple of weeks. But, just to finish the year, here are my charts as of 12/31.
    covid1231-deaths.png
    covid1231-confirmed.png
    covid1231-confirmedtotal.png

    The pie charts below show confirmed cases as a percent of population for the US and my state and county ... I have added a dark green wedge for people vaccinated. Although at this time the numbers for people vaccinated are irregular. Reported three days per week by the CDC and on Wednesday by my state/county. There is also a delay in the CDC's collection progress. I expect these pies will fill with the "vaccinated" slices as more vaccinations are accomplished and reported (noting that no one other than test subjects has received the second dose of any vaccine in the US. That should occur over the next week).
    covid1231-confirmedpie.png
    Note the numbers below the charts. While my state has a higher infection rate than the US and my county has a higher infection rate than my state the death rate (% of cases fatal) is follows an opposite trend. BUT the number of deaths per 100k illustrates phrelin's post. More infections lower death rate per infection still results in a higher death rate per person.

    Finally, a chart showing the peaks (and valleys) of the pandemic to date. The top represents confirmed cases, the bottom represents recorded deaths. Note that for the most part death peaks and valleys are a few days after case peaks and valleys. The exception being the peak before Thanksgiving which was a result of the reporting delays.
    covid1231-peaks.png

    I have also spent some quality time with the global data - although comparing US data vs the world doesn't look good on a chart. The US is highest in cases and deaths, but on a percent of population scale the US falls to 11th in total cases and 12th in total deaths. For current seven day averages the US is 11th in cases and 22nd in deaths. But I can share charts showing global patterns which are similar to the US patterns.
    covid1231-deathsworld.png
    covid1231-confirmedworld.png
    (Shown as percent of population the global figures look like a straight line on a chart including the US.)

    Stay safe.
     
  12. Jan 5, 2021 #892 of 932
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Fun with numbers ...
    covid0105-waves.png
    The theory: It has cost the US over 353 thousand lives to infect just over 20 million people.
    The "goal" is to infect (or inoculate) 266 million people (80% of US population).
    Without a vaccine it would cost the US over 2.7 million lives to reach 266 million infected at the current rates.
    The current rate is just under 1% of the number of people confirmed to be infected.
    (I have broken the statistics into three waves since the early months were much more fatal than recent months.)

    The unknown: The number of people infected and possibly "immune" who did not get a confirmed test.
    Also, as vaccinations continue COVID survivors (counted above as "immune") may receive vaccinations.

    I have run the numbers on a smaller scale for my state (Indiana) although with cross border movements it is hard to contain the herds. The reality is that each area of the country will have their own herds with some crossover.

    Note the value of each million vaccinations ... adding people to the herd of immune without losing the herd's lives.
     
  13. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    covid0109-confirmed.png
    covid0109-deaths.png
    covid0109-peaks.png
    covid0109-confirmedpie.png
     
  14. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    excess2020.png
    As noted, preliminary data from the CDC. There were a noticeable number of deaths over the expected number of deaths per week in 2020. The estimated number of COVID-19 deaths is also shown on this chart. The difference between the numbers may be deaths due to COVID-19 attributed to other causes (such as circulatory diseases, Alzheimer disease and dementia, which saw increases in 2020) or deaths due to people not receiving medical care due to the effect of COVID-19 on the health care system.

    For reference, the chart below shows the "excess deaths" for the past three years - showing that in 2018 and 2019 the US was below the expected death levels.
    excess2018-20.png
     
  15. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Here are charts for California as of January 15:

    [​IMG]

    It appears we may have peaked for hospitalizations, but if timing is similar to the last period, we're still a month away from the 7-day Death Rate peaking.
     
  16. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Nationally we are approaching 400k deaths and have passed 2 million deaths worldwide. I hope the confirmed numbers continue to drop. I expect the most recent peak was post holiday testing.

    Weekly update charts ... noting that we are a couple weeks past the holidays where reporting was delayed.
    covid0116-confirmed.png
    covid0116-deaths.png

    A chart that is 10 months wide amplifies the slopes. Here is one showing the last 28 days. The 28 day average growing slowly while the 7 day average reflects days with delayed reporting.
    covid0116-deaths28.png

    And finally, my pie charts! The vaccinations rate is growing (first dose shown). At this point those who got their first dose 4-5 weeks ago have received their second (not shown on the chart).
    covid0116-confirmedpie.png

    I know a few people who tested positive since Christmas ... although I found out when they reported that they were recovering after a week of being sick instead of when they were diagnosed. That does not help with contact tracing! Another group was sick after Christmas but refused to be tested. They used home remedies from the Internet. Fortunately they survived as well (home remedies without medical supervision is not recommended behavior).
     
  17. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    As of this morning, California has acknowledged it has an active variant of the virus not reported elsewhere. It has been reported in significant numbers in numerous urban area counties. It's not a surprise to me.

    Yesterday my wife and I got our first vaccine dose (we're among the 75+ group). It was the Moderna vaccine. We both have sore arms comparable to what we have had in some years from the flu vaccined.
     
  18. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    Yes, that is a commonly reported side-effect. Move your arm a pretty fair amount and that should help the soreness go away faster. Maybe for the 2nd shot , it should go into your dominant arm for the same reason (I'm not saying it wasn't this time).

    I got this info from someone in health care on another forum.
     
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  19. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Most of the people I know who have been vaccinated (including second shot people) have gone with their non-dominant arm. The theory being that if it hurts one doesn't need to move the arm. I had not heard the suggestion to keep the arm moving to help reduce the initial pain.

    Regardless of the arm, it is good to see people stepping up and getting their shots. (My near elderly inlaws are scheduled for this Friday morning. Their doctors recommended getting shots as soon as possible.)
     
  20. billsharpe

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    LA county hasn't started vaccinating seniors yet.

    Edit: but they will starting Thursday.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2021

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