The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. May 3, 2021 #961 of 984
    harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    Perhaps not at a national level, but in some regions (like where I live) there have absolutely been surges. Several counties in Oregon have returned to "extreme" status as of May 1st.
     
  2. May 3, 2021 #962 of 984
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    In today's New York Times you can read Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe which is pretty much what I'm resigned to. It seems a bit different from what I remember the response being to polio vaccinations. But then they are different diseases and we've gotten used to the flu killing at minimum a quarter million annually world wide...until this past flu season.
     
  3. May 3, 2021 #963 of 984
    inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    To many people don’t understand vaccines aren’t just for them in general, they are for everyone and there effectiveness increases with everyone getting it. At least on things like this and polio etc.

    Don’t get me wrong, you should have a choice, but I think to many people are making that choice based on Facebook and YouTube conspiracy theorists rather than doctors advice. Because there is no way that many doctors are against vaccines.
     
  4. May 3, 2021 #964 of 984
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    To a certain extent it was an other people's problem. We only have estimates (since flu isn't tracked like a pandemic) but the world moved from "a quarter million" (possibly as high as a half million deaths) to three million COVID-19 deaths in a year. Basically moving the decimal point. In the US our worst recent year was 61 thousand deaths. Nowhere close to the half million lives lost directly to COVID-19. It got the attention of the world. Perhaps we should take the flu more seriously.

    The problem I see with the COVID numbers now is that they are much lower than the peaks in November and December but are still floating around the bad numbers we were seeing in September. We are not far from numbers seen a year ago ... but losing hundreds of people per day is not "good". Get down to ~160 deaths per day and COVID could be a "bad flu". The US hasn't been below 250 deaths per day since March ... 2020. It is too easy to look at numbers that are better and think we're OK.

    But I'll take better over the alternative,
     
  5. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    I think the failure of the "herd immunity" theory is that, unlike chicken pox, the flu or even the common cold that's going around locally, COVID-19 outcomes run a much higher chance of being truly life-threatening and that being ill has proven not to be a sure-fire protection from additional infection (although this may simply be a strain differentiation issue).

    The immune system is pretty remarkable but it isn't inherently prepared for absolutely everything that comes along (wouldn't it be great if we inherited our immunities?). In view of that, sometimes we have to show it what it is up against in a carefully controlled manner.

    That said, I'm probably still not going to bother with flu shots (I've never had one) until I get a bout that makes me more sick than I hear people suffer from getting the shot.

    I'm also going to endeavor to stay off as many of the "at risk" rolls ask I can and I suspect that will go a long way.
     
  6. b4pjoe

    b4pjoe New Member

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    My work place had far fewer absences this last fall and winter due to colds/flu than we ever had before. I have to believe masks were a big part of that. We will see how it goes this next fall/winter season as most of the people at work have been vaccinated and no longer wear masks at work.
     
  7. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    We inherit our morbidities. Family history is a good indicator of what medical challenges one might face and what challenges one might avoid.

    The problem is that the diseases mutate faster than people. Even if all imunities were inherited, the inheritance ends at birth (so whatever imunities your parents had at your birth would theoretically be inherited but not any they gained after your birth) and any disease or mutation that they were not immune to when you were born would not be covered. Generations are roughly considered to be 20 years - diseases mutate much faster.

    After getting a flu shot I have a better idea of how my body will react - so I can dismiss the horror stories of the few that do suffer from the shot. The same goes for the COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer in my case). It wasn't zero impact for me or my wife but I wonder how much of the impact was psychosomatic. I read the clinical study before getting the shot and saw the percentages of people reporting each side effect. I didn't know where I would fall in those percentages but I was willing to accept the odds since I am not in a category that reported severe side effects. A wonky day or two after each shot was acceptable.

    With well over 100 million in the US vaccinated and many more around the world I believe we have a better idea (statistically) what side effects will be seen. One doesn't know where they will fall in the spectrum (no effect, a couple of wonky days or the extremely rare severe effects). But if the vaccine was causing people to get COVID-19 we would know. If the vaccine was killing nearly 2% of the people who were vaccinated we would know.

    Percentage of confirmed cases in the US who died of COVID-19 per quarter:
    1Q 2020 - 2.79% (5.19% in Indiana)
    2Q 2020 - 4.99% (5.66% in Indiana)
    3Q 2020 - 1.73% (1.45% in Indiana)
    4Q 2020 - 1.13% (1.47% in Indiana)
    1Q 2021 - 1.93% (2.08% in Indiana)
    2Q 2021 - 1.26% (0.85% in Indiana) [since April 1st]
    Overall 1.78% fatal (1.85% in Indiana) through May 1st

    I'd rather be vaccinated than get COVID-19.

    And now that we have been getting flu shots every year my wife and I will continue to do so. While we understand others may have real reactions and some may have fears we know how the shots affect us. And we'd rather have the shot than the flu.
     
  8. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    As I haven't had the flu since the 1970s or earlier, any reaction is worse than I've suffered.
     
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  9. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    Yep ... you are special.
    And you moved the goalposts: "... until I get a bout that makes me more sick than I hear people suffer from getting the shot."
     
  10. steve053

    steve053 Godfather

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    Completely agree that some (maybe even most) cancers, Type I diabetes, and host of other health issues are either inherited or a result of our environment. I'd also argue that some of the most pernicious morbidities are self-inflicted; obesity, type II diabetes, and COPD/cancers from tobacco being at or near the top of the list. When almost 78% of hospitalized COVID patients are obese we as a country need to do more to improve our health.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/cov...le-hospitalized-were-overweight-or-obese.html
     
  11. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    That has always been my benchmark. My health insurance company has a different benchmark and it hasn't changed either.
     
  12. NYDutch

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    Does the fact that millions of people have taken the vaccine shots with little or no side effects play any part in your decision making? The more severe side effects are really quite rare...
     
  13. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    From the article: "Of those who were admitted, 27.8% were overweight and 50.2% were obese, according to the CDC report." "Just over 42% of the U.S. population was considered obese in 2018"
    So a little ahead of the curve (and obesity increased in 2019 leading into the pandemic year).
     
  14. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    The driver for me, as I made abundantly clear, is not having had the flu as far back as I can remember.

    If I do manage to contract a strain in the future, then I'll re-evaluate.
     
  15. NYDutch

    NYDutch DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    COVID-19 is not the flu, but it's your life to bet...
     
  16. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Gold Club DBSTalk Club

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    I believe he is talking about the flu shot, not any COVID-19 vaccine. Although I wonder if people strongly resistant to the flu shot would consider the COVID-19 vaccine.

    If I recall correctly, the acceptance of the flu shot was higher this season than in previous years. Such acceptance was likely one of the elements that reduced the spread of the flu (in addition to the aforementioned mask wearing, hand washing, etc.). When I got my flu shot last year it was suggested that it may help with the symptoms of COVID by boosting the immune system. True or not, I planned on getting the flu shot anyways.
     
  17. NYDutch

    NYDutch DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Ahh, ok, that's my error then. I thought we had drifted back on topic at this point... ;)
     
  18. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    Today is my Pfizer go live date (two weeks after the second injection). Maybe you weren't paying attention to the fact that I was talking about why I wasn't interested in a flu shot.
     
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  19. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    The topic was what we'll lose. I don't expect that COVID-19 is going to change the overall attitude towards vaccinations in the long term unless something goes wrong in a statistically significant way. The reason I say that is because I think the public will eventually get bored with denying that COVID-19 is a thing and the institutional requirement for certain classes to be vaccinated (like universities requiring vaccination for in-person attendance) will help to get them over the hump.
     
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  20. scooper

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    Yeah - if you just had a Covid vaccine, you need to wait 6 weeks before getting another vaccine.
     

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