The Corona Virus, What Will We Lose When It Ends?

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Rich, Apr 16, 2020.

  1. May 4, 2020 #161 of 442
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    50,507
    2,121
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    The primary sanitation step that will be taken is removing all of the people. With 5% ridership they can do a decent job of keeping surfaces wiped down, but it is hard to clean when there are people in the way.

    There is no instant "back to work". Even in the places where restrictions are being lifted the restrictions are not being totally revoked - and even if the government said "do what you want" polling has shown that Americans WANT to be safe. Last week's CBS News poll found:

    Sixty-three percent of Americans are more worried about restrictions lifting too fast and worsening the outbreak — than worry about lifting restrictions too slowly and worsening the economy. (37%)

    Only 13% say they would definitely return to public places over the next few weeks if restrictions were lifted right now, regardless of what else happened with the outbreak.

    Almost half — 48% — say they would not return to public places until they were confident the outbreak was over. Another 39% are "maybes": they'd return depending on whether they saw the outbreak getting better.​

    Most states are staging a gradual reopening - asking for 50% or less occupancy in stores and restaurants. But even without government restrictions it will be a challenge getting half of their customers back. And with a connected economy, your factory opening up is dependent on having a place to sell your product - if the next factory up the chain isn't ready to accept your product there isn't much you can produce. If your suppliers are not ready to ship what you need to make your product the factory can be stalled.

    There is no light switch that goes back to 100% operation overnight. People need to be patient and avoid being patients. Wear a mask AND keep your distance AND wash your hands. Doing one is not an excuse not to do all three. Stay healthy.
     
  2. May 4, 2020 #162 of 442
    steve053

    steve053 Godfather

    451
    24
    May 11, 2007
    Brookfield, WI
    I don't doubt those poll numbers, and also believe that's what many/most people say they want. But actions speak louder than words. Anecdotally, this weekend the parking lots of multiple grocery stores and big box hardware stores in my area were PACKED. My wife drove into work this morning and commented that the roads haven't been this busy in a long time.

    Those numbers will change when the late/overdue bill notices start showing up for the millions of recently unemployed, and those that are are currently furloughed have their wages cut or jobs eliminated, and the businesses that were on shaky ground before the pandemic close their doors for good.
     
  3. May 4, 2020 #163 of 442
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

    15,434
    428
    Jan 18, 2007
    Northern...
    The only goal of the Great Economic Lockdown of 2020 was to slow the spread of Covid-19 cases during the first months of the Coronavirus Crisis. That allowed time to organize enough hospital beds to handle both Covid-19 cases and the normal flow of cases due to other illnesses (you know, cancer, strokes, heart attacks, auto accidents, etc.).

    [​IMG]

    As the Lockdown restrictions are lifted, Covid-19 will continue to spread, a percentage of those infected will need hospital care, and a percentage of those hospitalized will die or become disabled.

    The underlying reality for the next 'x" number of months (or forever) is that while we struggle to create a new economic and social normal, each day hundreds of people from infants to centenarians will die or become disabled from a Covid-19 infection.

    Mistrust, a general sense of unease, is likely to be felt by most people. And the real meaning of "people" in this context is "consumers" whose spending drove the pre-2020 worldwide "consumer economy" which in the United States represented about 70% of economic activity.

    In the future many will consume less because their income will have been reduced, perhaps substantially. Others will consume less because (1) they will fear of a repeat Lockdown cycle due to Coronavirus and (2) they discovered they didn't need to consume at the pre-2020 level to be happy.

    An Extended Economic Distortion likely will be the result of consumers not consuming as much as as they did prior to the onset of the Coronavirus Crisis.

    Just my opinion, of course.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
    Rich, steve053 and jimmie57 like this.
  4. May 5, 2020 #164 of 442
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    50,507
    2,121
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    Updated numbers with a couple of things to note ---
    covid0504percent.png
    Note the swings in the additional number of deaths per day (yellow columns). NY State swings from 110 to 510 deaths per day. Connecticut swings from zero to 120. Good reasons to look at the number of deaths over several days when drawing charts - or conclusions. Also note a couple of negative numbers. Days where the totals were corrected. Another good reason to average when drawing charts.

    (The biggest correction I have seen is when the State of Indiana accidentally reported the total confirmed cases for Marion County - Indianapolis - for Grant County where the city of Marion is located. That error was more obvious.)
     
  5. May 5, 2020 #165 of 442
    steve053

    steve053 Godfather

    451
    24
    May 11, 2007
    Brookfield, WI
    Short term I agree, but long term I fear the "out of sight, out of mind" mentality that seems to rule the day. I also agree we'll have an extended "economic distortion". To what depths and for how long, I don't even have a guess as it's just beginning to unfold.

    It seems the Millennial generation is cursed.
     
  6. May 5, 2020 #166 of 442
    Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    35,509
    1,882
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    This is gonna be a nightmare. People can't pay their rent and the owners of those rented properties can't pay the taxes and mortgages on the homes. Gonna be a lot of foreclosures in the very near future. And more homeless folks.

    Rich
     
  7. May 5, 2020 #167 of 442
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

    15,434
    428
    Jan 18, 2007
    Northern...
    If you thought the infections seemed different, it has now been verified that there are two strains. The original from Wuhan, China which arrived on the West Coast mutated in Europe, probably Italy, becoming more virulent. The Italian version came to the East Coast. All of which makes creating a vaccine more complex, with many of the earliest efforts based on the Wuhan strain. See Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than original.

    If the Fed were to intervene for a year shoring up the mortgage situation dependent upon the occupants' ability to pay, it could reduce the impact. But that's really taking care of the average guy, so I'm not holding my breath.


    We have grandkids in both the Millennial and GenZ generations and can't avoid worrying about them. They are facing a whole new world combining 19th-Century-public-health type concerns with 1930's-type-economic worries.
     
  8. May 5, 2020 #168 of 442
    trh

    trh This Space for Sale

    7,357
    697
    Nov 2, 2007
    NE FL
    But it appears the second strain is the one we're all seeing now. From your LA Times link:
    "Italy was one of the first countries to see the new virus in the last week of February, almost at the same time that the original strain appeared. Washington was among the first states to get hit with the original strain in late February, but by March 15 the mutated strain dominated. New York was hit by the original virus around March 15, but within days the mutant strain took over."
     
  9. May 5, 2020 #169 of 442
    Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    35,509
    1,882
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    I was recently asked where the trillions of dollars are coming from. I didn't have an answer other than they are just printing money without anything to back it up. If that's true, won't that cause massive inflation? Where is all this money coming from? Just to bail out renters in NYC the cost would be astronomical. In the billions.

    Rich
     
  10. May 5, 2020 #170 of 442
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

    50,507
    2,121
    Apr 17, 2003
    Michiana
    Yep. The government doesn't have any money. All they have is our wallets and IOUs. Something to remember when asking the government for money. But I'm sure the millennial's grandchildren can pay off the debt as well as the boomers did. Just as well.
     
  11. May 7, 2020 #171 of 442
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

    15,434
    428
    Jan 18, 2007
    Northern...
    You are both right. IMHO it will lead to what I call an Extended Economic Distortion. Headlines tell us U.S. Debt Sales to Hit Record With Deficit Headed to $4 Trillion and Fed Is Propping Up Companies It Had Warned Banks Not to Touch, stories that reflect U.S. Government debt liability increases and levels with no precedent and therefore no understanding of implications. And those headlines don't take into account the other government stories such as Coronavirus plunges California into worst budget deficit in state history explaining "California’s government faces a $54.3-billion budget deficit through next summer."

    One opinion writer suggest Inflation as the way to pay off the Coronavirus debt. The Fed can ease the burden of heavy borrowing by raising the long-term inflation target from the current 2% to a still-modest 4%. This could substantially increase the rate at which debt effectively vanishes. For example the average inflation rate from 1946 to 1955 was 4.2% which reduced the post-WWII federal debt/GDP ratio by almost 40% within a decade.

    Inflation means prices going up. The difficulty is wages for low and middle income earners, particularly the minimum wage, has to keep pace with that inflation. It's all too complicated for me.
     
  12. May 8, 2020 #172 of 442
    Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    35,509
    1,882
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    I listened to my parents and grandmother talk about what they went through during the depression and WWII many times. Grandma also lived through WWI. I have to wonder if this is gonna be even worse. NJ already has over a million people out of work (if what I read this morning is accurate). A million people that wouldn't be out of work under normal conditions. And this is just the beginning.

    I was watching the coverage on CNN a couple of days ago and saw Jorge Rodiguez, an infectious disease doctor being interviewed. He was asked how he would handle getting folks back to work. He had a well thought out answer, he thinks this is gonna go on and on until a vaccine that actually works is found. At least a year. He said the only things that help at the moment are masks and distancing. Until we get a vaccine we are screwed...my words, not his.

    Rich
     
    phrelin likes this.
  13. May 8, 2020 #173 of 442
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

    15,434
    428
    Jan 18, 2007
    Northern...
    Because some journalist latched onto one study submitted to the website bioRxiv, a pre-print website which means the findings haven't been through the rigorous peer review process required to publish in scientific journals, we have this story about two versions of the virus infecting people.

    So far, 7,237 mutations in SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus virus which causes COVID-19 disease) have been identified according to the most recent information.

    This is supposed to be dangerous to old people like me. Now we are seeing more and more reports of hospitals reporting a mystery inflammatory syndrome in kids and teens that may be from a SARS-CoV-2 infection. It's not yet a lot of kids and teens, but it's just another thing we don't know and it might be because of one or more of those 7,237 mutations. Or not.

    The "what we don't know" list isn't getting shorter. I read "they" figured something out and the next article is about something new.

    And there are experts who question whether we can actually create an effective vaccine.

    Right now as the family pessimist what I see is a time similar to the 1800's when cholera and other epidemic diseases would repeatedly thin out the herd and, yes, create herd immunity good for a couple of years. And in terms of our economy, to use your words, we are screwed. But I wasn't labeled the family pessimist for my rosy outlook and I'm regularly overly negative.
     
  14. May 8, 2020 #174 of 442
    billsharpe

    billsharpe Hall Of Fame

    3,100
    142
    Jan 25, 2007
    Southern...
    I will be surprised if movie theaters, league stadiums, and concerts will be open for California residents to attend this year.
     
    Rich likes this.
  15. May 9, 2020 #175 of 442
    peano

    peano Icon

    797
    33
    Feb 1, 2004
    We are all going to be exposed to the virus eventually. Unless you hide in your home for the rest of your life and never allow visitors. That is reality.
    All the imposed measures of lockdowns are just delaying the inevitable. And destroying our way of life.
    If you are afraid, stay home. Stop telling me to stay home.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2020
    jimmie57 and cpalmer2k like this.
  16. May 9, 2020 #176 of 442
    Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    35,509
    1,882
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    I'm a big believer in "worst-case scenarios". But I never imagined something like this happening. I don't know what or who to believe when it comes to the virus. The economy is something else. I can see where that's going. I keep seeing comparisons with the Great Depression. That ran from 1929 to 1933 and at its peak 15 million people were unemployed. The population in the US was about 125 million. Roughly 20% unemployed. Today, 325 million people and ~15% unemployment with ~22 million out of work. I don't even know how fair it is to make this comparison. Different worlds. If what we are going through lasts as long as the Great Depression we are truly screwed.

    Rich
     
  17. May 9, 2020 #177 of 442
    jimmie57

    jimmie57 Hall Of Fame

    9,913
    813
    Jun 26, 2010
    Texas City, TX
    This will pass soon. They have gathered a multitude of smart people to get a handle on how to stop this. It is an effort like I have never seen and I am 76.
    The financial stuff will heal quickly. If you look at the markets, they look 6 to 12 months ahead and it is going up now, before the actual return of everyone to work.
    Be positive.
     
  18. May 9, 2020 #178 of 442
    Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    35,509
    1,882
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    Yeah, I believe most of us will end up getting it. The trick is not filling up the hospitals while the infections increase. A balance has to be struck. We can't concentrate solely on keeping folks from getting the virus and ignore the economy. We can't ignore the virus and fix the economy quickly, that's beyond foolish. We need leadership we can trust to get through this nightmare. I think we're seeing that here in the tri-state area (NJ, NY, CT) with our governors. This has to be a slow process. Careful, well thought out steps. Bring the economy back without filling up the hospitals.

    Rich
     
  19. May 9, 2020 #179 of 442
    Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

    35,509
    1,882
    Feb 22, 2007
    Piscataway, NJ
    I hope you're right. I'm far too pessimistic to think this is gonna be easy.

    Rich
     
  20. May 9, 2020 #180 of 442
    lparsons21

    lparsons21 Hall Of Fame

    5,208
    553
    Mar 4, 2006
    Herrin, IL
    And fortunately it seems that those in the actual businesses are smart enough to not pay much attention to the plethora of idiots infesting Washington these days. The smart ones in businesses are paying attention to the smart ones in DC and ignoring the political posturing from those on both sides of the aisle.
     
    peano and jimmie57 like this.

Share This Page

spam firewall