Tivo vs EchoStar ... September 4th Hearing (w/transcript)

Discussion in 'General DISH™ Discussion' started by James Long, Sep 4, 2008.

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  1. Mainer_ayah

    Mainer_ayah AllStar

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    Tivo has already proven that they have defensible IP. The only thing your hoped for no contempt ruling would show is that if you are a dishonest dick head, and pay your lawyers enough to mess with the system, you might be able to get away with the theft. At what cost? All Charlie will have done is show he has a big manhood package, but squat when it comes to business sense. Most corporations will be working with Tivo, in good faith, with the knowledge that they can establish agreements that will be beneficial to both them and TiVo.
     
  2. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    Charlie thought he could "starve" Tivo out by delaying, gaming the system, appeals etc. When that didn't work and everyone realized the Emperor was naked his overinflated ego won't let him admit defeat and bow out gracefully.

    He is a HORRIBLE businessman who's answer to everything is litigation. If I was a shareholder I would be calling for his head. His act is getting old. Who even wants to do business with this guy? AT&T just kicked him to the curb, who's next?

    How much more is his "stubbornness" going to cost his shareholders when he is finally forced to settle with Tivo or face a mass defection of customers to his competition where Tivo will collect a royalty on Charlie's ex-customers when they get a tivo from D*?

    Not to mention the class action lawsuit he gets slapped with when the DVR's go black.
     
  3. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    Did you know that Charles Ergen, his wife, and Jim deFranco own about 95% or more of the voting stock of Echostar, etc. ?
     
  4. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    No, I didn't know that. But that explains everything. He can do whatever he wants (and does). I would never invest any money in a company like that.

    How's the stock been doing? I don't follow it but I can't imagine all this nonsense is good for it.
     
  5. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    There are bigger problems than Tivo vs Echostar ... everyone seems to want to blame everything on their pet excuse or claim that a some specific action or inaction would lead to failure. There are good days and bad days ... DISH has been lower than they are today, Tivo has been higher. I wouldn't read too much into stock prices.

    We don't get into stock talk here anyways ... we're more interested in the companies than what investors believe they are worth at a particular moment in time. That is all that a stock price is anyways.
     

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  6. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    I just want to make sure Charlie has enough money to pay Tivo. :p
     
  7. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    He's got enough to buy Tivo, if he wanted to (and if Tivo was for sale).

    (Tivo Market Value $ 752,088,960. Charles Ergen net worth estimated at $10.2 billion.)
     
  8. scooper

    scooper Hall Of Fame

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    As I said - if I was Charlie - That's what I would have done - make this "go away" by buying out Tivo - poison pill or not....
     
  9. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    I can remember when DISH offered to exchange 1.76 shares of DISH stock to DirecTV owner Hughes for each share of the tracking stock. Although at that time, DirecTV was gaining a small amount of net new customers while the proposed merger was ongoing, many felt that DISH was undervalued. When the merger was scuttled in October, 2002, DISH share price widened to an almost two to one ratio against the Hughes tracking stock.

    Even as early as last summer, DISH stock was trading at about $50 a share while DirecTV was at $30. The speculation was that AT&T was looking at purchasing DISH.

    Fast forward to today, where DISH has spun-off SATS (two shares of SATS were given for every ten of DISH owned by shareholders), the AT&T deal appears to have completely unraveled with DirecTV taking over from DISH/SATS as AT&T's video partner, and two quarters of net subscriber losses. Now the spread between DISH/SATS and DTV is almost non-existant.

    And that didn't even mention the TiVo v. Echostar suit.

    Can anyone imagine what would happen if "stubborn" ended up disabling about three million DVR's? We are talking about massive customer loss; the kind where irate customers will soapbox to their friends they should never give this company a dime.
     
  10. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    That isn't going to happen. DISH will not be disabling their DVRs.
     
  11. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    I do agree. But why run headstrong to the precipe?

    If DISH/SATS is found in contempt, they are standing on the edge of it, and there aren't many options. Either they pay the arm and the leg that TiVo will demand for taking the fight this far, or they jump and take out three million DVR's. There is no "middle ground".
     
  12. peak_reception

    peak_reception Icon

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    Make that "headlong.":)
    They'll do what they want, as always. :sure: Who's gonna stop them?
     
  13. jacmyoung

    jacmyoung Hall Of Fame

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    Greg, there is no difference if Charlie settles now or later.

    Charlie is convinced that he has a good design around, and according to all the case law he is not in contempt. Yes he lost the infringement fight, but he did win a few fights after that, he won the treble and attorney fees fight, he also got the stay of the injunction to have time to do the design around. Give in right now for what? All the past effort will be a total waste. Give in right now saves him no money at all because TiVo will not let him keep any of the money in the escrow and will pursue the maximum damages during the stay regardless.

    Only when a no contempt ruling is out, would he be able to have some leverage. No contempt is probably the best bet you can get in this long legal battle, and the most important thing is even if he loses on this one, he will not be any worse than today. Not to mention he can still appeal, and the appeals court will be more adamant about the standards, even if (a big if) Judge Folsom may be more adamant about his order.

    How would you play this card if you are in his position, honestly? Negotiate? Fold? For what?

    The only thing I can see him talking to TiVo right now is if the pressure of his stock value is so great that he is forced to try to produce some good news for E*. But since he controls the vast voting rights, the pressure is only his own making, so the question really is under what kind of pressure had he ever folded?

    The distant case gives us a good example, when there was no way he could keep his networks signals, he still played the card and managed to "lease" his transponders to keep the signals alive, and got a no contempt after FOX brought up the issue to the court.

    He has no history of folding so easily. That is not to say history cannot be made.
     
  14. dfd

    dfd Legend

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    According to ALL the case law or according to you?
     
  15. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    Trust me, there is a big difference when it comes to bargaining in good faith or bargaining while cornered.
    I assume you know what a settlement is? In TiVo's case, it would be a lump-sum for past infringement and an ongoing monthly license, in exchange for dropping all litigation, including the "maximum damages".

    The money in escrow will be gone if the Supreme Court does not review the writ of certoriari. That was supposed to be today or tomorrow.

    Mr. Ergen can fight for every little penny, when he'll most likely have to shell out a billion dollars when this is said and done.

    BTW, the news that AT&T has dumped DISH has sent the stock down fourteen percent today. Can DISH/SATS take much more bad news?
     
  16. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    We're talking the CEO of DISH/SATS. We'll keep that as "headstrong".

    Although I don't know what to do about the precipe. Maybe if it were a precipice, it would work. :)
     
  17. nobody99

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    That's $1.3 billion in market cap lost. Ouch.
     
  18. jacmyoung

    jacmyoung Hall Of Fame

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    But according to you he is already cornered, in fact you have always believed right after the infringement judgment he had been cornered, so why the difference now? Is he more cornered now than before? As far as I know, nothing new has happened since the appeals court upheld the judgement and the injunction. He has been waiting for the contempt hearing and the ruling all this time.

    Please don't assume what I know or use the so called "maximum damages" to scare anyone. The so called $220 million "maximum damages" holds no water at all, you know it.

    You mean TiVo will let Charlie keep some of that money if he settles now? If so I have a bridge to sell you.

    You have been throwing large numbers around forever, I remember $600M at one time, now a billion, I also remember you said modification for the 319th time. Are you a serious negotiator:)

    As I said the only possible way for Charlie to consider a settlenemt right now is if he wants to bring some good news while the bad news are all around.

    But then again, if he gives in to everything TiVo asks now, what's the difference if he waits another month? At this time TiVo will be asking for the maximum, because they will perceive Charlie as desparate if he seeks settlement right now.

    Only after a no contempt ruling, will he be able to get some compromise from TiVo. Now is the worse time to settle. Wait for the ruling will not make it worse, if there is a contempt, and the appeals court upholds the ruling, a settlement then will be in no worse condition than right now.

    Except there will be no contempt, and after that the settlement will be in much better shape for E*.
     
  19. peak_reception

    peak_reception Icon

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    Ok, I see what you mean by "headstrong" now. :D I left "precipe" alone. Could be plural for precipice. ;).
     
  20. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    Actually down 17.50%, but who's counting. :grin:
     
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