Tivo vs EchoStar ... September 4th Hearing (w/transcript)

Discussion in 'General DISH™ Discussion' started by James Long, Sep 4, 2008.

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  1. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    So you think it's better for Chuckles to wait until 4 million boxes go dark and his customers run for the doors to start negotiations? !rolling

    Charlie will have Tivo right where he wants them, right?

    I want some of whatever you're smoking! :icon_stup
     
  2. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    It is an awful big call if DISH/SATS only has the second best hand at the table.
     
  3. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    Nice analogy, Greg.

    I think the "stubborn" one is betting over his head. He has overplayed his hand and is now down to praying for an inside straight.

    His "take no prisoners" business style has now officially blown up in his face with the departure of AT&T. It couldn't have happened to a nicer guy too....:nono2:
     
  4. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Are you sure? The Nasdaq 100 dropped 10% today ... there is a lot more going on in the world than Echostar's little problems. DirecTV lost 10.92% today and they GOT the deal with AT&T! :rolleyes:
     
  5. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    When I made the post, DISH was down 14 percent while DTV remained flat.

    It was only during the last hour of trading that DTV managed to hit a double-digit loss.

    Something is amiss. I think we are seeing many pull their dollars out and head for T-bills. This does not look good at all.
     
  6. jacmyoung

    jacmyoung Hall Of Fame

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    What does not look good? E* stock or D* stock? or maybe the market as a whole?:)

    Again please do not try to show your so call "4 million DVRs go dark" card, there is no such card on the table right now:)

    You simply cannot give me one good reason why Charlie has to fold now, not 6 months from now.

    Besides what I fail to understand is why are you so concerned for Charlie and so eagerly asking him to settle? According to you if he does not settle, he will lose a billion to TiVo. I thought you are on TiVo's side, please don't tell me you do not want to see TiVo collecting that one billion dollar check?

    Which side are you on really?:)

    Please do not tell me again you are concerned for us E* subs, thanks but no thanks.
     
  7. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    It should have been done months ago.

    And this one is easy. Now costs less than six months from now if contempt is granted. And surprisingly enough, where we differ, is that contempt is much more likely to be granted.

    Realize if contempt is granted and DISH/SATS does not receive a stay, they are in the corner they so desperately want to avoid.

    The damages motion from the 4 September hearing only covers damages accrued until 18 April, 2008. If contempt is granted, the damages only get worse. Much worse.
    More concerned for the health of the industry as a whole. It would be nice if DirecTV actually has a competitor. :) And to that end, it would be good for almost everyone to put this behind them. Ask RIMM (Blackberry) what happened when they settled.
     
  8. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    No. The damages getting worse is not the only outcome if DISH is found in contempt by Judge Folsom. Another potential outcome is an appeals court correcting Judge Folsom. Contempt is a temporary victory. Even if the consequences are not stayed while appealing.

    Mr Ergen and DISH Network have taken the gamble to get this far. They could have done your bidding and folded a long time ago ... but why fold now? In their minds they are even more right than they were two years ago. And no dire prediction will change that stance.
     
  9. peak_reception

    peak_reception Icon

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    I don't think a stay is a sure thing either. The CAFC will remember how DISH came to them the last time around crying wolf about millions of DVRs to be shut down and untold financial ruin, etc. when in reality they (DISH) had this Herculean "design-around" effort already well underway, confident in its success, expert opinions lined up vouching that it no longer infringes, and absolutely no intention of shutting down DVR functionality. Hey, why should all that be any judge's or court's business?!
     
  10. Greg Bimson

    Greg Bimson Hall Of Fame

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    So, in other words...

    It is like the chip leader refusing to fold while having the second best hand. So much money has been invested in the pot that even currently being bested right now will not allow you to throw away the hand and move on.

    Any point is not as bad as completely losing the pot.

    Folding right now isn't really an option, but if during the next month Judge Folsom grants the motion, there isn't much left that DISH/SATS can do.
     
  11. Greg Bimson

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    At 10:31AM ET, DISH stock was down two percent, while DTV recovered eight percent.

    The last-hour selloff yesterday was a bit of an anomaly. Of course, that is evidenced by the 200+ point gain in the DJIA within moments of the opening bell.
     
  12. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Your assumption is that DISH has the second best hand. DISH's assumption is that they still have the best hand in the game. For example, DISH believes they have a straight flush. There is a chance that Tivo is holding a royal flush or a higher straight flush, but DISH believes their hand is strong enough.

    One thing DISH as the chip leader can do is keep raising until the opponent folds or goes all in. Then the gamble becomes Tivo's. Do they want to call DISH's bet? Do they want to go all in and risk their entire future? Tivo may believe that they have the best hand but that just makes them just as stubborn as DISH. The difference being who can absorb the loss.
    They can appeal. Judge Folsom does not have the final word on the subject.
     
  13. nobody99

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    No, but an appeal of a contempt finding is a heck of a lot more difficult to overturn than infringement of a patent. There aren't a lot of valid legal reasons to actually appeal.
     
  14. Greg Bimson

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    Whichever side loses will appeal stating Judge Folsom used the wrong standard in applying his finding in this contempt motion.

    Misapplication of standards is by far the most used reason when appealing contempt issues.
     
  15. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    Doesn't explain why Charlie pushed this all the way to the Supreme Court. I can't wait till the Supremes kick his butt to the curb Monday.

    That will be one step closer to doomsday for Chuckles and company.
     
  16. jacmyoung

    jacmyoung Hall Of Fame

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    Absolutely the opposite, it is much more difficult to find contempt than to find infringement. You simply refuse to read the law and continue to use your own belief as if it is a fact.

    BTW, Greg the stake is not any higher. Back two years ago E* had to put down a very large sum of money into the escrow, right now they are arguing the additional damages during the stay.

    It was clear that the judge will not give TiVo the $220 million, if no contempt. While the E*'s $16 million is a minimum, if no contempt, the amount will be close even if you use TiVo's rates.

    Now the question is really, what is the likelihood of a contempt? No matter what you think, as long as Charlie believes the law is on his side as far as the contempt goes, that is the card he is holding. All the case law are on his side. So yes from the standpoint of the position he is in in this game, he is currently in the best position compared to all previous ones, relatively speakng of course.

    Why should he fold now? The stake is not any higher than two years ago when he had to shell out $80 million. He did not fold then, no reason to fold now.
     
  17. Ergan's Toupe

    Ergan's Toupe Duplicate User (Account Closed)

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    While I have no doubt that Chuckles is going to appeal a contempt charge, I think it's more important that he doesn't get the stay.

    Without the stay Tivo can use the same stalling, delaying, BS Charlie pulled. In the meantime 4 million boxes go dark and there is a stampede of ex-Dish DVR users to D* (signing 2 year contracts).

    As far as I'm concerned he can have his appeal.

    IMHO, no stay = game over for Chuckles.
     
  18. jacmyoung

    jacmyoung Hall Of Fame

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    You do realize if a contempt life will go on for E*, and if no contempt TiVo will be in far worse shape?

    Maybe the TiVo supporters realize this, why they so want to see Charlie fold now. Otherwise Tivo could be in for a big shock.
     
  19. jacmyoung

    jacmyoung Hall Of Fame

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    Again I have never seen a contempt not stayed on appeal. Besides even if a contempt, there does not mean any serious sanction to go with it, so I don't even know what you TiVo folks mean by a stay, stay of what?

    Whether the DVRs must be disabled or not most certainly will have to wait till the appeals court speaks, even if a contempt.

    Usually after the appeals court upholds a contempt ruling, that is when the lower court will consider the next step to enforce the order.
     
  20. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    We're not talking about SCOTUS, we're talking about contempt of the injunction. Two completely separate issues. A SCOTUS decision not to grant cert does not mean DISH is in contempt.

    DISH has the right to pursue their case to the highest authority. DISH believes they were right in the original case and an error was made by the lower court. It is their government given right to appeal. That is why DISH has "pushed this all the way to the Supreme Court". Because it is stupid to give up before the fight is done. Besides, there is no harm in pursuing it further ... DISH can only benefit by appealing. Not getting cert just means that they pay what they owe. Getting cert means there is a chance of a reversal.

    On the contempt issue when Judge Folsom rules against DISH or Tivo the loser will appeal. If DISH is found in contempt and especially if they don't get a stay from some court then the stakes are raised but at the end of the process not asserting their rights is the worst decision. They believe they are right.
     
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