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Two day Edwards bounce... Gone

Discussion in 'The OT' started by Skyboss, Jul 8, 2004.

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  1. Bogy

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    Mike couldn't have made a mistake. He totally takes after his hero, and has never made a mistake, nor would he do anything differently. :D :lol:
     
  2. Geronimo

    Geronimo Native American Potentate DBSTalk Gold Club

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    But at least his hero admits to being young and foolish at one time. And I kind of like that about him. I mean Kerry has not yet shown the voters his human side. And while that might not tell us much about issues it has a lot to do with how comfortable people are with giving you a large measure of control over their destiny.
     
  3. Bogy

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    Geronimo, I was thinking about the statement Bush made that he hasn't made a mistake since he became president, and he would not do a thing differently.
     
  4. RichW

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    Well, if you read the Rasmussen data, they don't expect any kind of significant bounce due to the choiice of running mates or convnetions for this election. I won't repeat their reasons here because yuo can read it for yourself.

    Now certainly, any BIG unexpected change in the news (Powell replacing Cheney as VP or capturing bin Laden) would give a bounce. But so far, if you analyze the trends strictly on a technical basis, Kerry will win the electoral vote and the presidency.

    There is time to change the trend, but I don't think either convention will have a heck of an effect on the trend.
     
  5. Geronimo

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    I never saw that statement. He did at least admit that trading Sammy Sosa was a mistake. So he can admit error.
     
  6. James_F

    James_F Damn you woman! DBSTalk Gold Club

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    I love this thread!

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Richard King

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    Why are you dancing?
     
  8. RichW

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    looks a bit "gay" to me. :)
     
  9. James_F

    James_F Damn you woman! DBSTalk Gold Club

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    I think they mean it will build until August. It would appear in the article, the word bump, is unfortunate. Bump to me would mean quick and the author is using it over a month. :shrug:
     
  10. SAEMike

    SAEMike Banned User

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    The two articles I posted after that are specific to bounces for naming running mates. The articles were written before the conventions.
     
  11. James_F

    James_F Damn you woman! DBSTalk Gold Club

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    OK, so what changes the fact that the "bounce" goes until the convention ends?
     
  12. James_F

    James_F Damn you woman! DBSTalk Gold Club

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    Better???

    [​IMG]
     
  13. SAEMike

    SAEMike Banned User

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    Yes, because both parties have a convention, they both get bumps, people come down for a while from the beginning of the campaigns and things slow down a little until early October when campaign spending goes into high gear.

    I do this for a living. I know how campaigns and poll bounces work.
     
  14. James_F

    James_F Damn you woman! DBSTalk Gold Club

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    So then what are you arguing. You seem to keep saying what I've been saying... :confused:
     
  15. SAEMike

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    Ok, seems I have to lay it out for you step by step.

    1. Candidates name their running mates, which in the past has yielded an IMMEDIATE bounce, averaging 15 point. (note: Bush's 17 point bounce IMMEDIATELY follwing the announcement of Cheney as his running mate, and Gore's 14 point bounce IMMEDIATELY after announcing Lieberman.

    2. Candidates ride this bounce until the convention (Usually the running mate is chosen a lot closer to the convention, Kerry picked his running mate really early)

    3. Parties hold their convention, which yields usually another 10-20 point bounce, which usually settles the field of 2 giving one candidate a distinct advantage, or making it a statistical dead heat until the beginning of the debates.


    My point was, that Edwards never got any sort of significant bounce from announcing Edwards as his running mate.
     
  16. Geronimo

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    No. Theya re not specific to the choice of running mate. yes they were written before the conventions. This is because we have not had the conventions.

    Take a look at what you posted. The first quote CLEARLY states "after naming the running mate AND holding the convention." The second article has this sentence: "In spite of what the Clinton-Gore camp and the Brady's say, Bush's selection of Cheney, coupled with the convention, has given the GOP ticket a big bounce in the polls."
    The last article you cite SPECIFICALLY says it is based on dat AFTER the coinvention.

    All three are very obviously measuring a bounce from BEFORE the running mate isn named to AFTER the convention.



    Many years ago they wer commonly done at the same time. So it would be hard to fund data that separates the two. But your articles clearly combine them. Besides I don't see anyone going up 15 points with this electorate. It is very sharply divided.

    Your guy may get more of abounce. your guy may even win. But if you are so confident of that why do you try to twist things so blatantly?
     
  17. Geronimo

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    No. You cited three articles and all three of them clearly statee that youa re wrong. You may "do this for a living". But this time you clearly and palinly got it wrong.
     
  18. SAEMike

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    No they didn't. The bottom two articles are specific to a running mate bounce and BOTH were printed before the conventions. How do those prove I'm wrong?
     
  19. Geronimo

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    Read the articles again. I have already quoted from them. They do not support you.

    The second one clearly states that the bouunce is from the Selection of Cheney AND the convention. It was written after the convention not before.

    And this comes form your third article:

    "Al Gore has gained significant support as a result of the Democratic convention and is now statistically tied with George W. Bush among likely voters on the strength of an eight-point convention bounce, according to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. "


    It says as a result of the Democratic convention. In fact the words "Convention bounce" are in the TITLE of the article. It also discusses Gore's acceptance speech and how it went over. Quite a journalistic coup if it was written before the convention.

    Did you read the articles? You keep telling us that the articles were written before the conventions but the articles discuss the conventions and CLEARLY state that the bounce they are measuring includes the convention.
     
  20. SAEMike

    SAEMike Banned User

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    Sorry Geronimo, You're always right, and I'm always wrong. I will stop arguing this issue. I only have six years of experience doing polling, running campaigns, two degrees and spend my entire day doing research, but I know nothing.

    Naming a running mate, and getitng your name on every newspaper, every television station, on everybody's minds and lips never produces any sort of bounce.

    This is my last post in this thread :) Have fun.
     
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