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What will satellite be like 5 years from now?

Discussion in 'General Satellite Discussion' started by Chris Blount, Jun 22, 2006.

  1. kevinwmsn

    kevinwmsn Hall Of Fame

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    1) In 5 years, all DMAs will have locals(not every channel in HD).

    2) They will stop making mpeg2 only boxes, moving folks to central dvr for the home and thin clients(RVU) for other recievers.

    3) Dec 21, 2012 will be just another day similiar to Y2K. :lol:

    4) RVU clients for Tablets/Smart Phones.
     
  2. rasheed

    rasheed Godfather

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    Netflix, Dish, and DirecTV will be part of a studio or other content provider company (either having purchased or merger).

    Apple will offer sunglasses or prescription eyeglasses that can be used like iphones or ipads (with hand gestures in the 'air').

    Content providers will also have bandwidth distribution divisions (either through acquisition or strong partnership).

    The main guide screen will now be program based not channel based for most cable/satellite companies.

    DVRs will fade away with preferences for on-demand increasing the demand on bandwidth but reducing the need for local hard drives.

    Dish's IPTV services will be more important than the traditional satellite service.

    Some content distributors will create a very small base package and allow consumers to 'buy' or 'rent' subscriptions to individual programs or seasons similar to an 'itunes' or 'app store' model. This might be via a monthly account value or other model. This will be as close to a la carte as can be done.

    A premium provider (HBO, Showtime, or Starz) will offer a standalone subscription that bypasses distribution partners for the first time.

    Major media companies (Viacom, Fox, Disney, Discovery, Scripps, etc.) will drop entire channels as they can no longer get easy bundled carriage and will go to more of a program-oriented service rather than offering channels. This becomes especially popular among kids program and subject-oriented channels (home improvement, food/cooking, spiritiual, history, music, soap operas, news, etc.).

    Many OTA subchannels will be used for digital data for VOD and will be popular for mobile devices.

    Some television models will have 'direct' connections docking stations for cellphones to use them as a mobile phone with video or speakerphone easily. This might be done initially via STBs.

    A significant number of new releases will now be available at home at the same time as movie theater release.

    Most sports events will offer camera choices options to viewer on-screen.

    A number of major stations will have eliminated their on-air local nightly news program and will either provide it on-demand via content distributors or not at all.

    A number of networks will stop doing 30 seconds commercials and start to vary them between 20 and 40 seconds to make fast forward buttons less useful.

    Rasheed
     
  3. jsk

    jsk Icon

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    • DirecTV & Dish will merge
    • Dish subscribers will get more HD sports
    • Direct subscribers will get more national HD (including BBCA)
    • Prices will skyrocket after the merger
    • HHS will be the last SD channel to be converted to HD but they still will show the same four shows about the flu & bioterrorism over and over, including their extensive coverage of the 1918 flu in Baltimore.
     
  4. Stewart Vernon

    Stewart Vernon Roving Reporter Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    I found my old post from 5 years ago... and I kind of think I nailed it :)
     
  5. SamC

    SamC Hall Of Fame

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    IMHO, in 5 years:

    - Telephones in hotel rooms will be rare, it will just expected that everyone will have a cell phone.
    - Every car will come with built in SR, except for the very cheepest.
    - Cable will have many more competitors for being an ISP. Breaking cable as an ISP is the key to its death.
    - The Longhorn Network will have failed, and similar efforts by other single teams will thus not happen.
    - Sports will continue to be distributed mostly as today.
    - Most people, regardless of their provider, will have "national access" to major channels. If you have a package that includes, say, ESPN, you will be able to watch ESPN on your computer, on your cell phone, and on a hotel TV.
    - There will be more "variants on a theme" channels (i.e. ESPNU), there will not be new channels in new genres, they are simply out of new genres.
    - STBs will be eliminated, at least in high end instals. A TV will just look like a TV, with all of the reception stuff wired from outside the house.
    - We will see local station in tiny markets go away as the ad rev is not there to support them, alhough cable/DBS will fill the gap by simply expanding other DMAs. We will also see radio stations go away. Music will move to SR, recorded media, and internet based "stations", talk will move from AM to FM and the AM stations will just simulcast to hold the place.
     
  6. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I think we'll be using solid state hard drives by then.

    Rich
     
  7. jwktiger05

    jwktiger05 Cool Member

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    Agree with most of them; I really hope Longhorn network fails horribly.
     
  8. skatingrocker17

    skatingrocker17 Godfather

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    The only real advantage that would give us is that it would be quieter. I guess it could be faster? Possibly. I know I'll never build or buy (a laptop) without an SSD.

    I think we can all agree on one thing.... prices WILL rise.
     
  9. Jeremy W

    Jeremy W Hall Of Fame

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    Quieter, yes. But more importantly is that SSDs produce less heat, which would allow the boxes to be smaller. Speed is essentially irrelevant, since the hard drive speed is not a limiting factor in STBs.
     
  10. RasputinAXP

    RasputinAXP Kwisatz Haderach of Cordcuttery

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    Federal 911 requirements say no.
     
  11. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    Should be much more stable than the HDDs we're using today. I've seen 240MB SSDs for sale lately.

    Don't know how large they are now but they surely will get larger and larger and the prices should drop as they become the drive of choice.

    Rich
     
  12. Jeremy W

    Jeremy W Hall Of Fame

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    I don't really have any stability issues with any of my HDDs. Not quite sure what you're referring to.
     
  13. skatingrocker17

    skatingrocker17 Godfather

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    As of now, SSDs have higher failure rate but that could change in the next 5 years. I have 6 year old HDDs that still work but since I haven't had an SSD as long I can't really say the same.

    But I guess if you were recording 4 HD streams at once you could be bottlenecked by the speed of the HDD.
     
  14. Jeremy W

    Jeremy W Hall Of Fame

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    Even if you were recording 4 HD streams at max OTA bitrate (19.2 Mbps) and playing back 4 HD streams at the same bitrate, you're not even coming close to the performance of a 7200rpm HDD. The hard drive simply is not the bottleneck in today's DVRs.
     
  15. Drucifer

    Drucifer Well-Known Member

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    NY Hudson...
    Sure the hell slows down the guide.
     
  16. Rich

    Rich DBSTalk Club DBSTalk Club

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    I think that's the processors, not the HDDs. I didn't mean the HDDs as we know them today were causing major problems. I have some problems with them, but nothing I can't handle. I just thought that from what I've read about the SSDs, they would be an upgrade over a mechanical HDD. I'd imagine that five years would be plenty of time for them to evolve into something we could use in DVRs, if DVRs are still around then.

    Rich
     
  17. Jeremy W

    Jeremy W Hall Of Fame

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    That would be the processor, which is where the real bottleneck is.
     
  18. kingofku

    kingofku Cool Member

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    Compression and modulation schemes will improve allowing satellite providers to squeeze more signal with less bandwidth and not compromise (too much) the video quality.

    HD programming will increase.

    The FCC will mandate that satellite providers carry ATSC sub channels.

    A la carte programming will finally become a reality.

    DVR capacity will increase dramatically especially when they dump the spinning hard drives and go to solid state units.

    Will check back in 5 years to see how I did.
     
  19. Jeremy W

    Jeremy W Hall Of Fame

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    Compression and modulation are two totally different and unrelated things.
    A capacity increase with SSD? I can buy a 1TB hard drive today for less than $100. You can't even touch that price with 1/10 the capacity with an SSD. The technology will advance, no doubt about that. But we are absolutely not going to see price parity within the next five years, much less SSDs being cheaper.
     
  20. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    While there is no doubt that real-time compression will improve (or be replaced by pre-compressed signals passed through), DIRECTV for their part has been hesitant to go to the more efficient modulation schemes with their Ka satellites. This may be an issue that doesn't get addressed.
    That's an interesting idea. I'm sure both satellite and cable providers will fight it tooth and nail.
    You're smokin' dope on this one. The conglomeration is getting worse, not better. In five years there may only be a handful of media companies left.
    Not until they pretty much erase the lifespan issues related to a highly active SSD.
     

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