What's the future for Dish?

Discussion in 'General DISH™ Discussion' started by trdrjeff, Aug 1, 2019.

  1. Aug 1, 2019 #1 of 29
    trdrjeff

    trdrjeff Icon

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    It seems to be an accepted fact that there will be no more satellites launched as the world moves to broadband and 5G adoption. Is Dish going to be adding streaming channels integrated into the Hopper system?

    My account's on hold while I test the streaming options, Hulu live being the most workable for now, but I do miss the standard DVR features of traditional boxes like pausing Live on all channels or swapping tuners to avoid commercials. I was offered a Hopper 3 with a 2yr contract, but I don't want to get stuck with something for 2 years that's no longer evolving and adding content.
     
  2. Aug 1, 2019 #2 of 29
    P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    I don't see it as "accepted fact"... you don't know how 5G will functioning in real world conditions eveywhere … I wouldn't push the agenda, we will see an outcome of it in near future.
    It's too early to start speculations.
     
  3. Aug 1, 2019 #3 of 29
    trdrjeff

    trdrjeff Icon

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    Not sure what agenda I'm pushing. I don't see any news of anyone contracting more DBS sats, the big tech guys are throwing money broadband that will reach even the most remote areas...

    Do you see Dish sticking with Sats leaving streaming to teh Sling product or integrating them with streaming on Dish?
     
  4. Aug 1, 2019 #4 of 29
    mwdxer

    mwdxer Well-Known Member

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    AT&T (Direct) says no more satellites, but are far I know, Dish has not stated that. I think the future may be different for any satellite/cable service as more people do use streaming. Locals may end up either OTA or in a streaming package. The disputes also do have an effect. But I think satellite TV will be around for sometime to come, but streaming will become more popular.
     
  5. Aug 1, 2019 #5 of 29
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    DISH has not said "no more satellites" ... even AT&T|DIRECTV said "no more satellites" then launched another one. Recent statements from AT&T have clarified that they expect their satellite service to continue for a long time.

    DISH has already integrated streaming channels into the Hopper series receivers. It started a couple of years ago and now there are over 100 channels on the Hopper that are streamed via the Internet instead of via satellite, including a "public interest" channel (channel 886 Almavision). Bring your own Internet.
     
  6. Aug 2, 2019 #6 of 29
    mwdxer

    mwdxer Well-Known Member

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    Dish doesn't plan on any more satellite either? I did not know that. I guess the future will be streaming. Hopefully everyone has high speed. Besides that there is a lot more competition in streaming. With Dish you have Direct and Cable. There must be at least 20 different streaming services. AT&T and Direct has several.
     
  7. Aug 2, 2019 #7 of 29
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    No, DISH has NOT said "no more satellites". They have not closed the door on launching another satellite.

    Most of the streaming are international and specialty channels.
     
    sparky27 likes this.
  8. Aug 2, 2019 #8 of 29
    P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    Practically, the future is satellitely bright for next 10 years at least !
     
  9. Aug 2, 2019 #9 of 29
    sparky27

    sparky27 New Member

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    The tech guys aren't throwing as much money at rural internet as they want you to think. I actually just switched to Dish after being a longtime cord cutter. My new house is only 25 miles from our state capital and I have 0 broadband options where I live. So after we tired of streaming off of cell hotspots and constantly managing limited data we decided to go with Dish. So we axed the extra money we were paying for 4g internet hotspot and the satellite payed for itself (and is way more convenient).

    If I can't get broadband where I live, I can guarantee there are millions others in areas more remote than my own who are in the same boat.

    I've read the 5G towers have a very short range so I def won't hold my breath in anticipation that we will have 5G towers in remote areas anytime soon... see the thing is, they don't spend more money on rural areas. They keep improving upon the existing areas where population is denser and along expressways. ATT doesn't even offer DSL where I live. In towns and cities they just keep upgrading their internet to faster and faster speeds....they still ignore the chump change in the country.

    I do think more people will stream as time goes on, but that it will be a looong time before EVERYONE streams (if ever).
     
    Michael P and tsmacro like this.
  10. scooper

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    Sparky27 - it sounds like your only possibility for broadband is going to be the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites that are just beginning to get launched. Using currently available satellite internet has issues that just don't work well for some applications.
     
  11. mwdxer

    mwdxer Well-Known Member

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    I had not heard about Dish not launching new satellites. But I also read on another site, they figured Dish would follow suit. I still feel Satellite will still have enough customers to say viable, especially since AT&T has decided to drop the satellite launches. Some of those people will go to Dish, if they do not have another source.
     
  12. scooper

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    The one thing I'm sure about is that Dish will do what makes the most financial sense for them.

    With the rise of internet streaming, we may very well see a reduction in DBS customers to the point that it can only support one vendor. IMO, Dish is the best setup to be that vendor, since they are covering all 200+ DMA's (a pretty fair number on both arcs) already.
     
    Michael P likes this.
  13. inkahauts

    inkahauts Well-Known Member

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    And to be clear DIRECTV launched another sat six months latter and doesn’t need another for about 10 years to keep all bandwidth so that statement doesn’t really mean squat at this point. In fact I’m guessing one of DIRECTV satelites will be repurposed in the next year for att communications because they have more than they need. And seems dish has all they need to...
     
  14. P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    actually it's dish forum and TS asked about dish not DTV/ATT
     
  15. Bigg

    Bigg Godfather

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    When you're looking 10+ years out at what DBS is going to look like, you have to account for the changes in the overall "TV" industry. I don't agree with 100% of what NashGuy said in this thread, but he's done by far the best job predicting what will happen to TV that I've seen anywhere:

    Years and Years (of Pay TV Industry Predictions)

    He's more bearish on DBS than I am, for several reasons.

    1. The failure of US telecom policy to provide universal fiber for all. There are still large areas of the United States with limited or no broadband connectivity, and this failure of public policy is going to hold back the adoption of and conversion to an entirely streaming world.

    2. Data caps. This is related to item 1 in that it's a policy failure, but in a different way. There's nowhere in my town that doesn't have service from 4 wireless providers, or where you can't walk to a telephone pole holding Cox fiber. That being said, Cox's DOCSIS 3.1 cable has a 1TB data cap, and people are still actively talking about getting DirecTV because streaming services will send them over the cap. This would be similar for DISH in markets that they serve (DISH effectively does not serve Connecticut and New York due to not carrying our RSNs).

    3. Commercial use cases. DirecTV in particular has a HUGE commercial presence. Virtually every hotel, restaurant, and bar now is using DirecTV, many of them to feed several different channels to dozens of TVs. Hotels have hundreds of rooms, and nowhere near enough bandwidth for streaming everything. Even though they could get more bandwidth, it's just cheaper to use one little DBS dish that feeds the whole place. Many are integrating streaming apps into their STBs and using SMATV systems with limited channel lineups, but the SMATV is fed by DirecTV, and you've got to figure if they streamed all of that, their bandwidth consumption would go way up, and complicate the setup significantly.

    4. Niche use cases. Boats. RVs. Racetracks. Off-grid or remote locations.

    5. DirecTV/AT&T (see below).

    All that being said, and looping back to what TV is going to look like in 5 or 10 years, the concept of "TV" is moving towards OTT SVOD and OTT vMVPDs that are cloud based. The standalone suburban/urban market is going to shrink drastically for DirecTV and DISH, and the international channel market is already pretty much gone, as that can all be done by streaming, leaving no demand for that service. I'd expect to see the international packages slowly disappear from DBS over the course of the next 5-10 years.

    The number of linear channels that exist is going to be MUCH smaller than it is today. There aren't going to be 400 channels a few years down the road. The handful of linear channels that do well are going to be OK, the ones that don't won't, and they will disappear. News and sports are most of what live TV has left, and even those will eventually move towards streaming. News will be live, but free, and sports will emerge as some sort of subscription service either by content provider (ESPN, Fox, etc), or via league where you buy a pass to see all the events/games for that season from that league.

    It's quite logical to see a future for DBS where it is a collection of feeds that are primarily live streamed, with some "slots" used by ESPN, Fox, or whomever is streaming sporting events to the masses through an event-based system, with DBS simulcasting them to those who can't get them via streaming, or for commercial use.

    It looks like C-Band will be gone, as that spectrum is going to be used for 5G, and the sites for MSOs and MVPDs are going to be fiber-fed. The costs of that are going to go down a lot in the early 2020's, as most smaller MSOs are going to simply stop doing video, and won't need their downlink sites anymore. They will be bundling streaming video either from a vMVPD like YouTube TV or PS Vue, or similar vMVPD services bundled by Comcast or other providers, who will be aggregating those signals from the content providers via IP-fiber. There will be a handful of large MVPD/vMVPD providers in the country who can easily get feeds via IP-fiber and won't need C-band anymore anyway.

    In the future, DBS is going to need a LOT less bandwidth for CONUS TPs, even though LiL will still chew up quite a bit of bandwidth, assuming that the whole system doesn't implode over retransmission consent fights. That system is likely to either be reformed by Congress, or just become irrelevant, as their ratings have been tanking year after year, and most of the good content has moved elsewhere. The networks are increasingly becoming even more of the lowest common denominator. Broadcast TV will survive, but it may well no longer have high-value content, instead featuring some local news and a bunch of low-value syndicated content to grind out some ad revenue.

    I'm not sure exactly what each provider will do with their CONUS bandwidth, D* could use it to launch the remaining LiL markets it doesn't have, or do a couple of 4k channels or something. No one has pursued it, but I think having some Netflix Originals channels, and some Amazon Prime Originals channels would be quite valuable for rural users with poor bandwidth situations. D* or E* would hash out some deal with Netflix and/or Amazon to put these channels up, and they would require a subscription to the service for the end user to access. This would effectively allow a way to "download" the Netflix or Amazon shows to their DVRs for later viewing/bingeing. It wouldn't be the seamless streaming experience everyone else has, although if a piece of hardware were created that was basically a glorified 8 or 10TB USB hard drive that would plug into a DVR, the DVR could use extra tuners when they are available to basically build a huge selection of Netflix Originals or Prime Originals for that individual user that would be available for later viewing, including in 4k.

    D* can move a lot of it's more popular HD channels over to Ku band when they shut down MPEG-2, freeing up a TON of space on Ka band for who knows what. They could find something really interesting to do with it, like the Netflix and Amazon scenario, or they could just load it full of PPV and milk it. They haven't done anything with Reverse Band, and by moving the SD channels that don't have an HD version of them to MPEG-4, they will get even more space available. Using Ku for many of their HDs will allow in-motion use for RVs and boats, as well as more reliable service for those stations in thunder/rain prone areas like Florida and Texas.

    In terms of 5G, it's not going to be the be-all, end-all to everything. Obviously there is sub-6 5G that will have similar range to LTE, but our LTE networks today have all sorts of holes and gaps in them, and mmWave 5G will only be in urban and denser suburban areas. With an increasing focus on network densification in urban and suburban markets, and more and more wealth moving to large metro areas, I wouldn't count on a whole lot of improvement in rural coverage and service.

    I disagree. I think DirecTV has a better shot at surviving. AT&T has to keep DirecTV alive for a long, long time in order to realize the negotiating power for content for AT&T TV and whatever other crazy streaming services they dream up next month or next year. They are also using it to aggressively bundle with xDSL services which they are slow to upgrade to fiber. They also bundle with Fixed Wireless Internet.

    That being said, DISH has a large chunk of the rural market, and is probably fine as a niche provider in that market as long as broadband in rural areas sucks.
     
    NashGuy likes this.
  16. TheRatPatrol

    TheRatPatrol Hall Of Fame

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    I agree, sports and the local teams to break away from cable/satellite subscription only plans and offer an individual OTT streaming option.

    Don’t we already have that with NFLST, MLBEI, NBALP, and NHLCI?

    But its all about the $$$$$
     
  17. Bigg

    Bigg Godfather

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    Yes, we do, but in some/many cases, they are limited to out of market games, or have blackout restrictions depending on where games are shown, so they're not really competitive with an MVPD or vMVPD- yet.
     
  18. NashGuy

    NashGuy Active Member

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    Analysis article just out from Recon Analytics (telcom industry observer) founder Roger Entner:
    Industry Voices—Entner: The skinny on the T-Mobile/Sprint/Dish deal

    Key graf (emphasis mine):

    Ultimately, Dish could be an aggressive competitor similar to what it is in satellite. Dish competes on price and features with good customer service. Unfortunately, at the current trajectory, the satellite business will become unprofitable in about three years as subscribers, revenue and profit are declining precipitously. The underlying profitability of Dish’s core satellite business, capital intensity of wireless, the hyper-competitiveness of the wireless industry, the vagaries of international politics, delays in technical standards, the fickleness of investors, and plain old execution risks are the biggest complicating factors in Dish becoming successful in wireless.​
     
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  19. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    They don't have the numbers to back that up. On the DISH side, the company has only posted a profit of over $1 billion in a year in five of the 23 years they have been in business (2005, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2018). So far this year they have posted $657 million in profit. They will probably break $1 billion this year. There is no basis to state that satellite profits are dropping. On the DIRECTV side AT&T does not break out the numbers in a way that allows such a statement to be truthfully made. How can any responsible person state "declining precipitously" when revenue and profit for satellite are not published?

    The "trajectory" of AT&T|DIRECTV's subscriber number shows their service declining faster than DISH ("satellite" cannot be stated for DIRECTV since AT&T now mixes UVERSE numbers with satellite numbers). Casting DIRECTV's problems on DISH is not appropriate. And making statements such as the above is irresponsible.
     
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  20. mwdxer

    mwdxer Well-Known Member

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    I still feel Dish will be around a while longer, with $1 Billion in profit, I doubt they are going out of business. I do feel a lot of the business will be streaming in the future though.
     
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