What's the future for Dish?

Discussion in 'General DISH™ Discussion' started by trdrjeff, Aug 1, 2019.

  1. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    21% of DISH's current customers are Sling TV streaming customers. Plus DISH has added On Demand via the Internet and live streamed over the Internet channels to their satellite equipment. They are not being left behind as their customers choose to transition to streaming. The Internet fed content allows DISH to keep customers on the satellite service while providing them access to additional content. Without that Internet content customers may decide to leave for the "movies on demand" content streamers offer.

    I heard a radio commercial promoting their free (included with a DISH subscription) content. I expect DISH will make that content easier to find and use as time moves forward. Streaming mixed with a satellite subscription - not a bad thing.
     
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  2. mwdxer

    mwdxer Well-Known Member

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    I have older vip211k receiver without an internet option, but I have also the Fire TV, so the Dish Anywhere app is great. I can catch most of my channels on Demand. I did not know the Sling sub numbers were that high, 21% is pretty impressive.
     
  3. Bigg

    Bigg Godfather

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    I don't think DBS is going down nearly as fast as NashGuy does. However, pay TV as a whole is failing. About 4 million households a year are leaving traditional MVPDs. Comcast, Verizon, AT&T and a couple of other companies are hiding at least 5 million subscribers in coerced bundles that they only have because of broadband, and when they decide that those are unprofitable or not worth their while, that's going to continue to spiral downwards faster. What is even worse for the whole pay TV industry is that the recapture rate for vMVPDs to recapture former MVPD customers is very low, with some reports putting it as low as 10%. On top of that, there are 500k new new housing starts per year out of 750k new housing starts and 250k that are taken offline, so that's an additional 500k that aren't net coming into the system, where a decade ago, 80% of them would be coming in.

    The picture for pay TV overall is really, really bad. This does't mean that DISH necessarily is going to disappear, but it does mean that their business is going to be radically different in 5 or 10 years. I do think that there is a role for DBS, due to it's unique distribution medium, available bandwidth, and reach throughout the CONUS, combined with commercial/hospitality market on DirecTV, but the business is changing rapidly.
     
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  4. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    People are still paying for TV. Cord cutting has become cord swapping ... changing cables from coax to Ethernet. The biggest change being a lack of commitment. Cable and satellite have built their success on committed customers. The first year or two under contract and the remaining years convincing them that the grass isn't greener elsewhere. Streamers have to rely on the second type of commitment.

    I was surprised when I saw how many of DISH's customers were Sling TV customers. They are still "traditional" package TV customers (and Sling TV is not the only streamer successful in selling package TV). DISH has also extended the "flex pack" concept over to satellite ... buy what you want, if you don't want everything.

    That is the biggest shift in the "pay TV" industry. Smaller packages. Streaming allows customers to pay for smaller bundles of channels and content. Streaming is delivering the "a la carte" service cable and satellite customers have been screaming about for years. But (as predicted) "a la carte" comes at a higher price. And there are still content providers who refuse to sell their channels outside of a traditional package. That will change - the last holdouts will eventually offer their own streaming services or offer their channels outside of package bundles. But it won't make it cheaper for people who do want "everything" ... it will just make it cheaper for people who are not receiving the content.
     
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  5. Bigg

    Bigg Godfather

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    Except that's not what's actually happening. 4 million people are leaving MVPDs while a few hundred thousand of those come "back" to vMVPDs. The few hundred thousand is likely a smaller population than the net new housing starts, so the net loss in the industry is roughly 4 million. That's before looking at people dropping down packages, and people choosing much skinnier packages on the vMVPDs than they had on their previous MVPD.

    Sling has done very well, as has Hulu Live TV and YouTube TV.

    If you think 4 million people net leaving the pay tv ecosystem per year is a smaller shift than smaller packages, then you've got your head completely in the sand. The generational change is insane too. You look at the current 65+ market and they are largely on pay TV. Drop down to the 35-65 market, they're more mixed, but still largely on pay TV. the 25-35 market is largely cord cutters, often with Netflix/Hulu/etc, while the younger folks are cord nevers, with a mix of Netflix/Hulu/etc and YouTube or other entertainment sources.

    At some point, these content providers either have to spend less, or there has to be less of them or some combination. The pay tv ecosystem is deflating, and as there is more competition and disruption, there will just be less money in the ecosystem as a whole. Live TV channels are basically dead as a concept within 10 years. DBS and OTA will be the last bastion of live TV, due to the lack of availability of broadband in some areas, commercial places that need stuff to fill dozens/hundreds of giant screens, mobile use cases like boats and RVs, and for OTA, because it's free, but OTA in 10 years isn't going to look anything like the OTA of 10 years ago.

    Have you read NashGuy's predictions? I don't agree with every detail, but he is directionally spot on, and I have never read a prediction that's 10% as good as his.
     
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  6. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

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    As long as you are limiting "pay TV" to MVPD and vMVPD and ignoring streaming as "pay TV" there isn't much more to say. If you are willing to admit that people pay for streaming, re-read my post above with that in mind.
     
  7. NashGuy

    NashGuy Active Member

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    Fair enough. Take up it up with the author:

    Roger Entner is the founder and analyst at Recon Analytics. He received an honorary doctor of science degree from Heriot-Watt University. Recon Analytics specializes in fact-based research and the analysis of disparate data sources to provide unprecedented insights into the world of telecommunications. Follow Roger on Twitter @rogerentner.

    "Industry Voices" are opinion columns written by outside contributors—often industry experts or analysts—who are invited to the conversation by Fierce staff. They do not represent the opinions of Fierce.
     
  8. NashGuy

    NashGuy Active Member

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    FWIW, I probably don't fully agree with every detail I wrote either, ha. I wrote those predictions as an entertaining thought experiment for myself (and hopefully others) and I fully realize that the future never quite turns out the way anyone might predict. I'm sure a number of little things I predicted (e.g. Amazon making a wide-ranging pact with Sony, etc.) won't come true, and I'm sure that my timing will be off on various predictions that do ultimately prove true. But stepping back and looking at the big picture I painted, I do believe that that core of my thesis is thematically sound. Or "directionally spot on," as you say. Thank you.
     
  9. Bigg

    Bigg Godfather

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    "Pay tv" in the US is generally defined as MVPDs and vMVPDs. If you'd rather substitute the phrase "vMVPDs and MVPDs" in for "pay TV" in what I wrong, that's fine, but the conclusion is the same.

    People absolutely pay for OTT SVODs, but not nearly as much as they did for MVPDs and even vMVPDs. The entire "TV" market, however you define that is going to see radical change, and is going to have to shrink overall in one way or another.

    You're welcome. :D
     

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