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Who is he kidding: Swanni Predicts: Network TV Ratings to Plunge

Discussion in 'The OT' started by LarryFlowers, Dec 27, 2008.

  1. LarryFlowers

    LarryFlowers New Member

    Sep 22, 2006
    In an article at http://www.tvpredictions.com/swannifive122308.htm

    Swanni is predicting "February's switch will have a devastating impact on the ratings of local TV stations and the broadcast networks (CBS, ABC, Fox, CW, NBC and MyNetwork TV) -- and the timing could hardly be worse".

    Is he playing with a full deck? I am having a difficult time wrapping my head around the thought process that arrives at this conclusion. Two seconds of research would tell you that the current number of US households with TV is pegged at 114.5 million, and even if you accept his number of 3 million households who "may not come along for the ride" as real (very questionable) that would represent at most 2.6% of the total market.

    What kind of fuzzy math is he using to come up with his "I predict that the average local TV station will lose between 5-7 percent of the audience after the February switchover. The networks will see similar declines in various degrees."

    Nothing in this article makes any sense at all.
  2. barryb

    barryb New Member

    Aug 26, 2007
    Its not fuzzy math; it's Swanni math!

    Here is my prediction:

    With consumer confidence towards spending money at the low that it is: people are going to stay home and watch television more than they have in a very long time Larry.
  3. LarryFlowers

    LarryFlowers New Member

    Sep 22, 2006
    Now that makes sense!
  4. tcusta00

    tcusta00 Active Member

    Dec 31, 2007
    "That's right. Instead of buying a digital converter box, a Digital TV or subscribing to a pay TV service, many Americans who now get local TV signals via off-air antennas will simply shrug their shoulders and stop watching. Or, perhaps, they will start watching more DVDs."


    He vastly underestimates this couch potato country in which we live.
  5. BaldEagle

    BaldEagle Legend

    Jun 19, 2006
    If anything the locals should increase. With the digital converson many on Dish or cable with drop their service and just watch what they can get free with an antenna. The digital picture is much better than analog.
  6. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

    Jun 14, 2003
    Salem, OR

    Let's not delude ourselves into thinking that digital is for our benefit. Digital is a way of compressing (lossy) more channels into less bandwidth.
  7. Grentz

    Grentz New Member

    Jan 10, 2007
    Actually in many fringe areas the Digital Picture is a lot better.

    For me it took a bit of snow off of a few stations and makes some SD stations look much better.

    It is a better picture, even though it is also a way to cram more info into a smaller amount of space.
  8. LarryFlowers

    LarryFlowers New Member

    Sep 22, 2006
    This thread is NOT a place for another stupid arguement over digital/analog. Get over it.. digital is what we have.

    It is about another example of Swanni's ill researched commentary and his credibility.

  9. Grentz

    Grentz New Member

    Jan 10, 2007
    lol, true. Sorry I got sucked into the trap :lol:
  10. jclewter79

    jclewter79 Hall Of Fame

    Jan 8, 2008
    Swanni is a hack, he announces news 2 days after all the other site announce it, and many of his predictions are way off.
  11. WERA689

    WERA689 Well-Known Member

    Oct 15, 2006
    Canton, GA
    I liked the one where he predicts that CBS will lose $$$$$ solely because of Les Moonves and Connie Chung...now THAT'S FUNNY!
  12. RobertE

    RobertE New Member

    Jun 9, 2006
    Wonder how many Neilsen households are OTA only?

    Yeah, exactly.

    Ratings aren't going to change one bit do the switchover. Unless I'm mistaken Neilsen has a small pool of of "viewers" and extrapolates local, regional, and national "viewers" from that.

    I bet he'll predict that will be in a recession soon too. :lol:
  13. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator DBSTalk Club

    Apr 17, 2003
    Funny thing about most ratings ... they are given in audience SHARE.

    Assume 50% of TV Viewers stopped watching TV completely.
    The ratings would continue to be a SHARE of the remaining viewers.
  14. kevinwmsn

    kevinwmsn Hall Of Fame

    Aug 19, 2006
    Soon, I doubt it... Give him another month or two.
  15. curt8403

    curt8403 Hall Of Fame

    Dec 27, 2007
    he is predicting that 5 - 7 percent of tv viewers are gonna say 'What!? I need to go out and buy a box to get tv now that it is feb 09??? NO Way, I'll just sit home, and twiddle my thumbs and watch VHS now that Analog locals and VHS tapes are now dead. '
  16. dhhaines

    dhhaines Hall Of Fame

    Nov 18, 2005
    The other thing with that is that the advertiser could care less if those people stop watching. If you can't spend a few bucks for a converter box you're not going to buy their product.
  17. xIsamuTM

    xIsamuTM Icon

    Jul 8, 2008
    YES! just like CD sound is better then vinyl!!
  18. fluffybear

    fluffybear Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

    Jun 19, 2004
    How many households still use OTA exclusively?

    Those who are not prepared today for the conversion will be rushing to their local electronic store on February 17th screaming about how this conversion was a big secret and how there was never a single on TV, etc.. This is the same group that complains about they received no notice when the phone company changed their area code.

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