Will Directv Stop Taking New Customers?

Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by raott, Jan 1, 2020.

  1. Jan 1, 2020 #1 of 54
    raott

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    I saw a link on sat guys to Swanni's predictions for 2020. One of those was the possibility that Directv could stop accepting new customers and push new customers to AT&T TV. Setting aside what many people here think about Swanni, I thought it was an interesting discussion.

    5 TV Predictions For 2020 - The TV Answer Man!

    What was even more interesting, is one of the posters at sat guys, who is definitely in the business, seemed to think it was a possibility.

    I'd be surprised, at least in 2020, but it's not like it hasn't happened before...ie Uverse.
     
  2. Jan 1, 2020 #2 of 54
    compnurd

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    Problem number 1 is going to any site with information published by that hack

    I also put zero stock in what someone over there says who hasn’t worked in the industry for a number of years

    I worked at McDonald’s 20 years ago. Should I start making predictions on there future??

    Claude and a couple of others summed it up there best.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2020
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  3. Jan 1, 2020 #3 of 54
    raott

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    The purpose of the thread isn’t to praise or rip Swann. But for what it’s worth, I’ll listen to Inclined Orbit over Claude any day of the week.

    But back to the purpose of the topic...



     
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  4. Jan 1, 2020 #4 of 54
    compnurd

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    Then you should not have posted who said it. It’s a baseless prediction I stayed at a holiday inn express last night. I feel prepared to advise the government on nuclear policy
     
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  5. Jan 1, 2020 #5 of 54
    trh

    trh This Space for Sale

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    And now you're probably more qualified than other current advisors.
     
  6. Jan 1, 2020 #6 of 54
    James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I'd say absolutely not, but this is AT&T|DIRECTV - so all intelligent decisions are questionable.
    Mr Swann's predictions are based on false information.
    A few years ago we heard that AT&T was refusing new UVERSE customers and "forcing" subscribers to DIRECTV. Yet in 2018 when satellite subscriber numbers began to slide UVERSE posted an increase in subscribers. AT&T is apparently no longer selling UVERSE in the test markets for AT&T TV.

    AT&T should sell what people will buy. DIRECTV satellite remains a profitable method of delivering content. There is no reason to refuse new satellite customers. Selling AT&T TV instead of UVERSE (new installs) is more of a packaging change. But if a new AT&T TV customer gets a different lineup and pricing structure than their neighbor with UVERSE it could lead to marketing problems.
     
  7. Jan 1, 2020 #7 of 54
    forecheck

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    As long as they have something no one else has, Sunday Ticket, they will definitely keep taking new customers. Even if they lose that, I still don't see it happening anytime soon as in many parts of the country, broadband speed just isn't there yet to support reliable streaming.
     
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  8. Jan 1, 2020 #8 of 54
    DirectMan

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    Why would any company with a mostly fixed cost structure (satellites and upload infrastructure) logically want to stop adding to its customer base where its marginal costs are limited to programming costs (and installations in year 1). Makes no sense especially since the stated target ATT TV is a test product with no history of performance.
     
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  9. Jan 2, 2020 #9 of 54
    slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    That's a ridiculous idea, it just shows how clueless he is. DirectMan is 100% correct, a business that is all fixed cost except for what they pay networks for the channels turning away customers would be insane. Streaming is not practical for a lot of people, they aren't going to just give away the rural market to Dish, or the market for people who don't have good broadband where they live.

    What I expect will happen is that Directv will encourage people to choose AT&T TV, since it costs them less to acquire that customer since there's no dish install and less equipment. Whether that's just by lower prices (i.e. not paying the 'advanced receiver fee' makes it $15/less even if the package prices are the same) who knows. I would not be surprised if Directv starts charging for satellite installs before long, and perhaps eventually quits doing installs at all - telling them to go to their parties or do their own install.
     
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  10. raott

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    Really? I shouldn't have said who posted it? That is ridiculous. Please go over to sat guys and let inclined orbit know his opinion is baseless (as he actually agrees with it). I'll wait to see that post.


     
  11. compnurd

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    I have already many times He hasn’t worked in the industry in a long time and doesn’t know anyone left. They are all being "forced" out according to him He worked at a uplink site also. He wasn’t the CTO. He was one of the ones proclaiming ATT wasn’t launching anymore Sats after those stupid CEO comments as the damn thing was taking off He is also now claiming they cancelled some other new Sat's that there is zero evidence where planned
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2020
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  12. techguy88

    techguy88 Well-Known Member

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    I showed that article to several friends that work at AT&T at the former D* O&O center and even retail stores and they laughed. The way they described the situation to me is what I initially thought.
    • DirecTV: Until AT&T TV becomes the fully fleshed out version of DirecTV it will stay put and operate as normal. Its the most advanced TV product they have and the only one offering 4K/HDR programming right now. AT&T TV is using the same channel lineups as AT&T TV Now so in some markets its missing RSNs as well. The only difference they see is once AT&T TV goes nationwide it will equally share the lead offer position in the "Premium TV" category based on customer needs whereas DirecTV was previously the sole lead offer.
    • AT&T TV: Pretty much in the trial markets where U-Verse TV was available it has replaced U-Verse TV for new signups for now. In these markets reps/sales associates actually have recommended guidelines on which Premium TV product to pitch based on customer needs.
      • Example A: Customer wants to be able to use the TV service on 3 devices/TVs at one time, DVR usage (i.e. deletes recordings after watching them never has 90+ days old recordings), is okay with the lack of NFL Network/Sunday Ticket and is not interested in 4K they are to pitch AT&T TV first.
      • Example B: Customer mentions they want any of the following: NFL Network/NFL Sunday Ticket, any channels available on DirecTV that is not available on AT&T TV (like FETV, International Programming), 4+ concurrent TVs, doesn't want a time restriction on recordings and/or 4K/HDR programming then they are to pitch DirecTV first.
    • U-Verse TV: If any TV service stops accepting new customers in 2020 it will most likely be U-Verse TV. AT&T TV is shaping up to be a viable replacement for U-Verse TV and it has the oldest equipment. They stopped manufacturing U-Verse TV receivers in 2016 while shifting those customers to DirecTV. Ever since the DirecTV acquisition U-Verse TV has always been treated as an reactive offer for those who can't get DirecTV or just don't want it. AT&T TV will be able to fill this role just fine while being available nationwide, not just to AT&T's traditional 22 state footprint.
      • They suspect if they stop new U-Verse TV signups in 2020 like they did in the trial markets then existing U-Verse TV customers will be able to keep their service but if they move to a new address (even if U-Verse TV was previously available there) then the customer will need either DirecTV or AT&T TV going forward.
     
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  13. SledgeHammer

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    Exactly. Sat is the "holy grail" of TV delivery. You launch a $600M sat and it can deliver TV to the entire country. You'll never lay fiber or coax nationwide, both monopoly wise and cost wise. Sat, unlike cable, fiber, streaming, 5G is load agnostic or whatever you want to call it. Whether there are 5 customers or 100M customers, who cares? Doesn't affect your costs one bit (I'm not including customer support obviously, just the tech). All the other delivery methods, you have to keep beefing up your infrastructure as you add customers.

    My project at work that I'm building is just 8 REST apis running in serverless Azure. There are a few random bits and pieces to glue it all together. Since we've been waiting over a year now for the database team to get their act together, there isn't even data up there yet, just code and the security bits... there is ZERO usage, its just gathering dust. Last months cost: $4700. With a steep enterprise discount. That is for delivering XML.

    Hardware requirements for streaming are exponentially more. Not a big surprise that a few big streaming providers have folded already. Didn't the Dot Com Bubble prove that you have to be profitable to survive? Streaming is definitely NOT load agnostic.
     
  14. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    The biggest benefit to satellite is that it exists. The bulk of the costs involved in receiving and delivering the signals has been spent. DIRECTV routinely posted over $4 billion in profit per year - around 18% of their revenue - before AT&T took over and absorbed that profit into their Entertainment Division. That revenue helped offset losses from UVERSE and allowed AT&T to grow their business with the purchase of HBO/Time Warner.

    Is any streamer pulling making an 18% profit on their revenue? Even 10%?
     
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  15. compnurd

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    Nope. Seems fairly certain all of them are losing money
     
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  16. SledgeHammer

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    Isn't Netflix profitable? Aside from the 12B in debt? And Disney+ probably isn't too far at the rate they're going. Or are you just talking about the live tv streamers? Those are all losing money...… and this is just to send raott into a tailspin... since "nobody" streams live TV. "Nobody" relative to traditional of course :).
     
  17. compnurd

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    Lol my bad. Yes I was just talking about “live” streamers
     
  18. slice1900

    slice1900 Well-Known Member

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    Aside from the $12B in debt???

    If you borrow more money every year than you show in profit (and they don't always show a profit) you can't claim you are making money. Netflix has never turned a cash profit, and doesn't look to be any closer today than they were five years ago.
     
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  19. SledgeHammer

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    Lol Netflix is considered profitable by Wall Street, they have an EPS and a PE. I'm not worried about them folding any time soon. That being said, I did sell my Netflix stock like 6 months ago. I ain't complaining... at least not til April lol... 115% profit, but at least its LT. My Roku sale is going to be a LOT more painful lol. That one is ST. I'm more worried about the fragmented space and them losing all their quality content then any financial issue for now. The stuff they are putting out now is just terrible. Can't believe they aren't losing US subs yet. Wall Street isn't going to penalize them for the debt any time soon I don't think. Maybe if it keeps spiraling out of control and/or they start losing subs.
     
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  20. James Long

    James Long Ready for Uplink! Staff Member Super Moderator

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    At minimum they need to make what they are spending over the life of the content they are purchasing. They are pouring money into content in order to retain and attract subscribers. The analysts accept the debt because there is a possibility that they will earn enough to pay off their debt. But as that possibility fades the analysts will be less comfortable with the debt and will seek other investments to support.

    They also have to cover their infrastructure costs. As noted above, it costs streaming companies for each subscriber watching their content. Not just the pass through fees paying for rights to the content, but storage and streams.
     

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