Your predictions for satellite 3, 5, 10 years from now

Discussion in 'General DISH™ Discussion' started by Jacob S, Dec 7, 2002.

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  1. Dec 7, 2002 #1 of 41
    Jacob S

    Jacob S Hall Of Fame

    Apr 14, 2002
    I had predicted a long time ago when there used to be dbsdish that directv might buy out dish network, and something close to that almost happened.

    Now I would like to see if any further predictions that others have made has come true, or close to coming true.

    I would also like along with others make more predictions and see which ones come true, and compare what we though satellite tv was going to be like in the future 3-5 years ago compared to how we think it will be different at this time in the future. I dont think many imagined this many locals being offered by satellite or even thought of pvr devices, or interactive features, and games that we can play on the satellite receivers now.

    I think that we will see a price increase in the near future of the top 50 package to $25, but the package name be changed to top 60 or top 75 as channels may be added. More likely for channels to be added to the top 100 package or top 150 package which may be changed to the top 125 and top 175 package when some of these channels we have longed for would be added. I think the prices would be $35 for top 100 or similar, and $43/$45 for top 150 or similar.

    Also I see internet by satellite advancing and dropping in price and becoming more popular and gaining ground in 5 years, another competetor will try to come into the marketplace within the next 3-5 years and be different from Dish and DirecTv to get customers, and Dish and DirecTv working together to share some satellite space for locals. I also predict Murdoch buying out DirecTv.

    PVR units will become the norm in the marketplace in 3 years, having at least 3 times the space we have now for the same price or cheaper, while the same space we have now available for at least a third less.
  2. Dec 7, 2002 #2 of 41

    PeterB Legend

    Jul 25, 2002
    1) Piracy will get worse before it gets better, even moreso for Dish Network.

    2) Expressvu will aquire Star Choice, and move all its subs to the Expressvu platform, and move ALL HDTV to the 82 slot.

    3) Dish will buy the 61.5 assets from a cash starved Cablevision for a bargin basement price.

    4) Dish will STILL not have Hartford or Baltimore locals.

    5) Dish or DirecTv or BOTH will change owners at least twice.

    6) Northpoint will still be whinning to the FCC.

    7) Americom gets its service started, but never becomes sucessful, eventually selling off its 105.5 assets to the highest bidder.

    8) KA band becomes a major issue.
  3. Dec 7, 2002 #3 of 41

    Nick Retired, part-time PITA DBSTalk Club

    Apr 23, 2002
    PVR functionality built into mid-to-high end TVs - imagine a 32"-36" CRT with built-in DVD and PVR (and VCR?)
    LCD and plasma TV panels at a relatively affordable price - ??

    affordable YPrPb switchers and 5.8gHz wireless senders

    more niche and special-interest channels competing for carriage
    more commercial time and less programming per viewing hour

    more (darn) shopping channels, including an 'antique' channel and a 'collectibles' channel

    The "Car Channel", where ridiculously-dressed dealers can shout at you 24/7/52/365.25

    some combining of similar programming, ala IFC/RO, due to limited Sat capacities

    ever-tightening FCC control of DBS due to NAB/NRTC combined with public apathy

    DBS market penetration plateaus at 25M-30M due to improvements in cable quality.

    Skyrocketing sales of hi-gain UHF antennas

    local broadcasters still being dragged, kicking and screaming, into the digital age - still transmitting HD at low-power as letter-of-the-law lip-service to FCC, while running "don't bother asking us for a waiver" PSAs and scrolls

    spirit of SHVIA still being ignored by LLs, MDUs and HOAs

    150 DMAs still unserved by LiLs

    finally, the long-awaited Voyeur Channel, featuring questionable peeping-tom type footage, endless reruns of the ever-popular "Cathouse", "Cathouse II" and "Nude News" at the top of the hour

    Oh, almost forgot -- the addition of DBS HD channels at the rate of one per year; the FCC mandates that all OTA, Cable and DBS transmissions will be in SDHD* and U3D** by 2025

    *Super-Duper High Definition (1880i)
    **Un-aided 3-Dimension
  4. Dec 7, 2002 #4 of 41
    Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz New Texan

    Mar 23, 2002
    Both Dish and DirecTV will need to perform a technology upgrade in order to implement better compression codecs. Still they will need additional satellite space on the spectrum.

    TechTV will be gone.

    Dish gets the licenses for the three transponders from DirecTV on 110 as a consolaiton prize.

    Open revolt by non-sports fans for paying for the sports channels.
  5. Dec 7, 2002 #5 of 41
    Jacob S

    Jacob S Hall Of Fame

    Apr 14, 2002
    In 3 years

    > Piracy for Dish Network and DirecTv will be increased unless a smart card swapout happens

    > Top 80-100 markets will be served, concentration on serving more markets will slow down or come to a hault

    > more concentration on improving picture quality, keeping customers to prevent a loss of sub count, and to decrease programming/operation costs will begin with job cuts after new customer acquisitions nearly come to a hault or slows way down

    Within 5 years

    > subscriber growth will come to a hault, possible loss of subscribers

    > Piracy for Dish Network and DirecTv will come to a hault unless there is little done about it, in which it will be out of control

    > Wireless internet becomes increasingly popular and channels will also start being available in this manner, Dish will start getting into the wireless internet/tv market

    Within 10 years

    > 3D television/computer moniters will be coming out like HD television is coming out now

    > A totally new receiver will come out for both companies changing the way they encrypt their signal, and new mpeg standards will be used.

    > Compression will allow satellite to broadcast twice as many channels using the same space as they do now. New satellites will have to be launched because of the older ones dying

    > a solution to providing more/all locals will come about, possibly the same way that wireless internet will be used, in which may be widespread at this time
  6. Dec 7, 2002 #6 of 41

    rowdymon Legend

    Oct 16, 2002
    Piracy will go down within the next year after all the HU cards are swapped out for DTV. Piracy for Dish would go down almost immediately if they kept doing those ecm's everyday instead of everyweek. On the other hand, prices will never go down. I predict we'll be paying close to $28 for the E* lowest tier (which is now renamed top 60). I predict locals will remain the same in price, and that premiums will go up by $2 for both D* and E*. I predict DTV prices will go up by $2-4 without any significant change in programming. I predict Expressvu will become a much better DBS provider than they are now; and I predict that within 5 years, I will probably have dumped whatever I was using and switched to Expressvu just because they are cheaper and have the same programming.
  7. Dec 7, 2002 #7 of 41
    Jacob S

    Jacob S Hall Of Fame

    Apr 14, 2002
    I think that piracy will eventually drop but before that time will continue to increase until some major steps are done. Technology is getting advanced enough to where major steps would have to be done. After it drops, it will rise again and customers will be lost due to the piracy, just as it was with c-band. A lot can happen in 10 years.
  8. Dec 7, 2002 #8 of 41

    Mike123abc Hall Of Fame/Supporter DBSTalk Gold Club

    Jul 19, 2002
    1 year I predict DirecTV will be separated from GM either by managment byout or Fox.

    2-4 years DBS growth rate starts to slow down as digital cable ready TVs start to become mainstream, causing the net price of cable to drop as settop boxes start disappearing.

    5 years out DBS loses its competative edge with cable as HDTV finally starts filling out. High end folks start dropping as they want HDTV and PQ that only cable can deliver.

    6 Years from now DBS is the "Kmart" of broadcasting, only for those that cannot get cable or want to pay less.

    7 Years out Echostar launches Ka based service by offering top 20 markets LIL in HDTV and ATHD50

    9 Years from now DBS has clawed its way back up to taking cable customers again, as about the top 80 market LIL are in HDTV, and most of the DBS channels are in HDTV.
  9. Dec 7, 2002 #9 of 41
    Jacob S

    Jacob S Hall Of Fame

    Apr 14, 2002
    I think Ka would have to be used to get HD but with the rainfade issues I have read about I do not know if that would be practicle. I do believe that it will be cable's turn to have that edge over satellite but then when they reach their threshold on technology for the time satellite will catch up and go ahead of them once again.

    I think cable will offer deals on internet in a bundled deal to get some of the satellite customers back, while other deals will be no price raise guarantees and free channels. Satellite will get these customers back eventually. It is kind of like the long distance phone companies, switching back and forth, only instead of just price it is for features as well. If cable gets pvr's for a lot or most of its customers that will really get customers coming to them, but then satellite will counteract, but would have to upgrade all of its customers, and at an expense they will have to make up for.

    I definitely agree with Mike123abc on this.
  10. Mike123abc

    Mike123abc Hall Of Fame/Supporter DBSTalk Gold Club

    Jul 19, 2002
    I have used TW Cable's PVR box... Pretty nice, has picture in picture, 2 tuners, and can record 2 at once.
  11. James_F

    James_F Damn you woman! DBSTalk Gold Club

    Apr 23, 2002
    Cox has a nice PVR also...

    Haven't seen their HDTV yet but its in my area. Everyone I know already has either DirecTV or Dish for HDTV so I need one of them to change so I can see how good it is. No HD PVR yet though.
  12. Cheech Marin

    Cheech Marin Guest

    1) Dish and Expressvu will launch joint venture to run their satellites so that they can share HD transponders.

    2) SES/Star Choice/InDemand will do the same to share ku DC transponders on the SES 105 and 103 slots with the Anik F1/F2 ku slots. 4DTV customers will move to these providers

    3) Sony will buy Directv - from Rupert - to integrate with the Sony Passage platform - and to put an end to DTV's compromized security (Sony & the other Hollywood studios will freeze Rupert out by cutting out his access to new films)
  13. minnow101

    minnow101 Guest

    10 years out, Echostar will still be trying to get the Dishplayer to function as it was designed.
  14. angiodan

    angiodan Godfather/Supporter

    Sep 2, 2002
    5 years out- 921 PVR released.:)
  15. Jacob S

    Jacob S Hall Of Fame

    Apr 14, 2002
    I think there is a better chance that Dish and ExpressVu will share satellite slots than DirecTv and Dish because of the platforms plus they are not in competition against each other, they actually work together if I am not mistaken, considering ExpressVu uses the same hardware.
  16. BrettR

    BrettR Legend

    Apr 24, 2002
    This is what I'd like to see happen. Both of the 2 DBS providers work on allowing customers to in essence choose the channels they want to pay for. As cable rates are climbing, DBS could reach for the customer that wants to pay less and get more value from their service. For example, Dish heavily advertises now AT 50, the lowest price digital package available, for only $22.99.

    However, one cannot choose the channels they get in AT 50. If you want Discovery Health over Travel Channel, Hallmark over PAX, GAC over CMT, DIY over Sci-Fi, FOX News over CNN or Animal Planet over MTV, AT 50 isnt the package for you, and you have to upgrade to a higher package, sometimes even the highest package just to get the channels you want.

    Instead the providers should work to allow subscribers to bundle any 50 channels (let the customer choose) from the AT 150 level for $25 or so, then any 100 channels for $32. I'd exclude home shopping and PI channels as they could be bonus, included at no charge to all subscribers, as they pay for carriage. The commercial free movie channels probably also wouldnt be eligible.

    The AT 100 and 150 rate and package could stay for those that are fine with a service level. In DirecTV world, The TC and TC+ rate and package could stay but allowing the customer to make their own packages for a lower price (like $25) would really benefit the customer and attract cable customers at it also. Right now, we are forced to take other channels to get the ones we want. Its as if we are going to the grocery store being required to take products and items we dont want just to get the ones we want.

    I expect the cost of an RSN or ESPN to be worth about possibly 5 basic channels. So the channels could be weighted also. Meaning Travel Channel worth 1, TCM worth 2, ESPN (includes ESPN Alternate) worth 5, etc.

    So one can get 50 channels by selecting the channels they want. It would be much more successful IMO than Nielsen ratings in determing which channels are successful. If subscribers for example, dont want to pay for any of Viacom Networks, Viacom would eventually get what they are asking for - their strategy of purchasing channels, then screwing them to the ground (like TNN, watch BET) but tying it to other channels so they can claim 15% and more of a cable bandwith. Just so the company can grow market share wouldnt work. Subscribers would choose other channels and when Viacom realizes nobody is taking TNN, they'd either be forced to improve it or shut it down.

    Cable might not have the technology. They still are not 100% digital and are using traps as technology. But Mr. Ergen and DBS have voice in Congress. Cablevision seems interested in launching their DBS service in offering more customizeable packages.

    Charlie Ergen petitioned (asked Supreme Court) to allow all customers can get any network across the country. He had interest in this venture, but it was dismissed. Actually defeated point of local television.

    However with climbing programming rates, DBS can get Congress to step in and stop the "tying into basic package" that these program providers are using to abuse the public. I dont know of DirecTV if they would support this. Charlie Ergen once said he'd like to offer channels alacarte. I think Dish and maybe Cablevision may have interest and I think it would be great in terms of public interest.
  17. Jacob S

    Jacob S Hall Of Fame

    Apr 14, 2002
    I dont think that is going to ever happen, at least as you describe it. I think that it may be possible to choose certain channels into a package but they require you to pay a minimal fee or a minimal package to do so. Maybe if they had more packages it would make more customers happy. People could customize their packages more to their liking, and Dish could still be seeing a profit. Maybe that is part of the problem, that we cannot customize our channels enough.

    They may have certain channels that can be packaged, while other channels that they can't. I know that they have certain agreements with the program channels where they are required to be in a certain package. If Dish could find a way of doing this without losing money, such as charging the amount that they would have made off of the package (the money they do not receive because they are purchased seperately) and then the cost of each channel to them in which they could sell seperately, then maybe they would do this.

    An example would be if they make $15 off of the top 100 package. Them charging that amount or a little less plus the amount for each channel at cost which would be a flat amount they could come up with which would be 50 cents to a buck for each channel. For $30 you get 15-30 channels your choice.

    I know they used to have a package called Dish Pix where you could choose 10 channels for $10 then they raised the price to $15 because they added the $5 fee for not taking a minimal package. Retailers did not get a commission off of this package either. They did away with this package for new customers. Some channels could not be chosen.

    If it could be done then, it can be done now. If customers want the channels bad enough that they could not choose before an additional fee could be added to help pay those program providers so they will not complain about not receiving the money. An example would be insead of $15 for 10 channels, $25 for 15 channels, that would be an extra $5 to make up for the program providers not having all of their channels carried. They may want certain market penetration as well because of the advertisement. Sure, you are only getting 15 channels, but a lot of people do not watch more than a handful anyways, and if you would able to choose anything in the top150 package in which is $41, you would saive $16, enough to buy a movie package and still save a little money.

    The could also create more package themes than they do now just like ExpressVu does such as family, news, etc. Dish currently has an action package for $5, and a Encore theme package for $5, the superstations and/or locals, and the movie channels in which does not require a basic package, in which could be purchased in packages for smaller amounts. If they could create a few more of these then people could group some channels together better saving them money and/or giving them the channels they want without having to take a bunch that they want without Dish losing much money if any, they might actually be able to make more money this way. They could require a minimal amount be spent in order to prevent the $5 fee therefore not losing any money.

    There are different ways this could be implemented to prevent some of the problems. Dish needs to see all of the possibilities.
  18. Rick_EE

    Rick_EE Godfather

    Apr 5, 2002
    10 years out- Dish Network will be either bought out or bankrupt. D* will be around. Long term, without significant techinical changes DBS cannot compete with cable's (virtually) unlimited bandwith. (Why not have multiple cables?).

    As mentioned before DBS will be like satellite internet now, only for those with no other broadband option.
  19. Bob Haller

    Bob Haller Banned User

    Mar 24, 2002
    Ahh its time to polish up my crystall ball. Please note its been very reliable, so laugh and we will laugh at you later.

    First the protracted legal action over the failing merger will have to be behind us....:) and for the D stuff a new owner will have to be in place.

    Non PVR receivers become all obsolete on both providers. Directs again failed card swap and in house effort leaks worse than their present arrangement and they bite the bullet and do a wholesale swap out of old receivers. Remember P receivers flooding the garage sale flea market areas? This time it will be D. Anyone need a nice high tech doorstop? Incidently the latest recivers like the tIVOS will not be replaced. Both providers will be doing this to go to a new compression encryption scheme. Subs getting a FREE upgrade t PVR will get a free 2 month trial of the service. After thats its paY A ONE TIME FLAT COST or MOINTHLY FEE JUST OR THOSE GETTING IT FREE....

    The move to PVRs will allow PPV on demand and other cool services that make $. The feds will require weather alert of some sort designed in to the new system to help inform folks of weather hazards and sadly terrorism alerts.

    Right now E is looking at the buy rate of service in smaller DMAs, This is largely what got some of them like Harrisburgh up. If it goes well look for at least the top 150 markets nationwide to go up.

    Theres a CHANCE they might carry every DMA, as a sales tool. But its iffy if marketing thinks its worth the ongoing monthly cost. But THAT would be a HUGH sales tool for E.

    I agree top 70? will go up in price, but be renamed top 100 to include LIL in ALL carried areas. Different DMAs will get some filler channels to make it top 100. HEY top 100 including your locals for $30 a month should be attractive to cable subs. That 100 number is magic.

    There will be another round of core and premium adds. E and HBO are working tro settle their differences. Top 150 will be Top 200 once the merger mess is over, one way or another. Again includuing locals oin all carried LIL city.

    E will pass D in new subs in just about 1.5 years. Charlie put to great use all he learned looking at his competitors operation from the inside.

    GM fnally sells D to Murdock, but the long delay by charlies legal moves allows E to take the lead. GM gets less $ too.

    Theres more I will return when I have more time...
  20. Jacob S

    Jacob S Hall Of Fame

    Apr 14, 2002
    Right now it is 8 million vs. 11 million and it will not happen in 1.5 years to my prediction. It will take a bit longer than this. I would think it would take around 5-6 years before there is a chance that Dish and Direct sub counts are close to even. There will be a signifigant change in subscriber numbers and a transfer of subs in that some will be switching from Direct to Dish if Dish were to get more local cities. The same could happen with Direct. Where can I find the data of sub counts year to year for Dish and Direct?
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