Hall Of Fame
I guess I'm not particularly worried about Netflix with its 208 million global subscribers. Every other service is playing catch-up with less than 50% even at Disney+. Far more people signed up for Disney+ and Netflix in the first six months of the pandemic than anticipated so growth would return to normal levels as the pandemic winds down. What one has to watch is the average revenue per user which gives Netflix a real advantage for now. Of course one can't ignore Disney's Hulu which is not too far behind Netflix.Netflix has been warning for YEARS now that they're pretty well saturated in the US market and will focus on expanding internationally on a go forward basis. They had a MASSIVE subscriber miss this past quarter when they announced earnings a few weeks ago. Thus they've gone from $600 to $488.
You could theoretically write off Netflix as a Netflix specific issue due to loss of popular content like Friends and The Office as well as the ending of most of their few popular original shows. They've already lost 9% of their market share.
One would theoretically assume those folks went to Disney. But guess what? After a very impressive start, Disney, who owns pretty much all the content worth watching, also had a huge subscriber miss this past quarter.
Seems pretty straight forward to me, streaming customers will follow the content, of which Netflix has a HUGE problem. It's self perpetuating. Netflix loses content -> Netflix loses customers -> Netflix loses revenue -> Netflix stock price goes down -> Netflix loses it's ability to get popular content. Rinse. Repeat.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Netflix lose more market share and eventually be bought for its customer base. No, not predicting its demise tomorrow or even next year. Just saying it has a content issue in the US.
In the meantime we have the Amazon MGM purchase rumors.