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Netflix has been warning for YEARS now that they're pretty well saturated in the US market and will focus on expanding internationally on a go forward basis. They had a MASSIVE subscriber miss this past quarter when they announced earnings a few weeks ago. Thus they've gone from $600 to $488.

You could theoretically write off Netflix as a Netflix specific issue due to loss of popular content like Friends and The Office as well as the ending of most of their few popular original shows. They've already lost 9% of their market share.

One would theoretically assume those folks went to Disney. But guess what? After a very impressive start, Disney, who owns pretty much all the content worth watching, also had a huge subscriber miss this past quarter.

Seems pretty straight forward to me, streaming customers will follow the content, of which Netflix has a HUGE problem. It's self perpetuating. Netflix loses content -> Netflix loses customers -> Netflix loses revenue -> Netflix stock price goes down -> Netflix loses it's ability to get popular content. Rinse. Repeat.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Netflix lose more market share and eventually be bought for its customer base. No, not predicting its demise tomorrow or even next year. Just saying it has a content issue in the US.
I guess I'm not particularly worried about Netflix with its 208 million global subscribers. Every other service is playing catch-up with less than 50% even at Disney+. Far more people signed up for Disney+ and Netflix in the first six months of the pandemic than anticipated so growth would return to normal levels as the pandemic winds down. What one has to watch is the average revenue per user which gives Netflix a real advantage for now. Of course one can't ignore Disney's Hulu which is not too far behind Netflix.

In the meantime we have the Amazon MGM purchase rumors.
 

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Regarding Paramount- I'm sure I'm wrong, but when I saw this screen I thought they could methodically build a streaming "channel" that could effectively compete across age groups and interests:



It would require focus like that found at Apple+ and Prime which do have significant financial interests beyond streaming. Maybe it wouldn't be possible and they really need to integrate Showtime, but one could always hope.
 

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There are some things we have to keep in mind, the first of which I'll call "size." I'm going to quote Wikipedia:.

About Comcast:

It is the second-largest broadcasting and cable television company in the world by revenue (behind AT&T), the largest pay-TV company, the largest cable TV company and largest home Internet service provider in the United States, and the nation's third-largest home telephone service provider. Comcast provides services to U.S. residential and commercial customers in 40 states and in the District of Columbia. As the parent company of the international media company NBCUniversal since 2011, Comcast is a producer of feature films and television programs intended for theatrical exhibition and over-the-air and cable television broadcast, respectively.

Comcast owns and operates the Xfinity residential cable communications subsidiary, Comcast Business, a commercial services provider, Xfinity Mobile, an MVNO of Verizon, over-the-air national broadcast network channels (NBC, Telemundo, TeleXitos, and Cozi TV), multiple cable-only channels (including MSNBC, CNBC, USA Network, Syfy, NBCSN, Oxygen, Bravo, and E!, among others), the film studio Universal Pictures, the VOD streaming service Peacock, animation studios (DreamWorks Animation, Illumination, Universal Animation Studios) and Universal Parks & Resorts. It also has significant holdings in digital distribution, such as thePlatform, which it acquired in 2006 and ad tech company FreeWheel, which it acquired in 2014. Since October 2018, it is also the parent company of mass media pan-European company Sky Group, making it the biggest media company with more than 53 million subscribers in the U.S. and Europe.

Revenue: US$103.56 billion (2020)
Total assets: US$273.69 billion (2020)​

For comparison, let's look at the Walt Disney Company:

The company is known for its film studio division, The Walt Disney Studios, which includes Walt Disney Pictures, Walt Disney Animation Studios, Pixar, Marvel Studios, Lucasfilm, 20th Century Studios, and Searchlight Pictures. Disney's other main business units include divisions in television, broadcasting, streaming media, theme park resorts, consumer products, publishing, and international operations. Through these various segments, Disney owns and operates the ABC broadcast network; cable television networks such as Disney Channel, ESPN, Freeform, FX, and National Geographic; publishing, merchandising, music, and theater divisions; direct-to-consumer streaming services such as Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+, and Hotstar; and Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, a group of 14 theme parks, resort hotels, and cruise lines around the world.[

Revenue: US$65.388 billion (2020)
Total assets: US$201.549 billion (2020)​

By most standards these two corporations are huge.

Now let's take a look at ViacomCBS:

The company's main assets include the Paramount Pictures film and television studio, the CBS Entertainment Group (consisting of the CBS television network, television stations, and other CBS-branded assets), domestic networks (consisting of U.S.-based basic and premium-tier cable television networks including MTV, Nickelodeon, BET, Comedy Central, and Showtime), international networks (consisting of international versions of domestic ViacomCBS networks as well as region-specific networks), the company's streaming services, including Paramount+ and Pluto TV, and the Simon & Schuster book publisher (sale to Penguin Random House pending in 2021).

Revenue: US$25.29 billion (2020)
Total assets: US$52.66 billion (2020)​

When I look at these numbers in the context of Comcast's NBCU merger regulatory history, I really don't see a smooth approval process for acquiring ViacomCBS. It seems like it would be a rough road even for Disney.

Handing off control of WarnerMedia to Discovery creating a combined company worth of $100+ billion forcused mostly on content is one thing. But combining Comcast and ViacomCBS would raise many red flags, maybe too many.

Just my opinion, of course.
 
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