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Mentor
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565 Posts
The problem with this article is that I don’t see sports leagues taking in the additional operations required to run a streaming enterprise.
The bigger problem is that this "article" looks like something a 7th grader wrote at the last minute to turn in for English class. No substance, no sourcing. Just some general statements.

I'm just tired of giving attention to trolls on this discussion. Because that's all we're doing at this point.
 

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Godfather
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868 Posts
Lets say they get $500 million each from Apple, Amazon, Google, Disney+, Comcast, Spectrum, DirecTV, and Dish to carry NFL ST on a non-exclusive basis. There is $4 billion. But would those companies be willing to spend $500 million for a non-exclusive?
No. The NFL loses the strength of its bargaining position then. It becomes just another premium package to the distributors. Having an exclusive is a cachet, it’s a mark of prestige. It sets the service offering it apart from the others.

As a non-exclusive, they would pay the NFL a per-subscriber fee, just like HBO, Showtime, Cinemax, and the other premium channels. No guaranteed money. Best case under this scenario for the NFL is a guaranteed minimum number of subscribers for each cable co, maybe 5-10% of subscriber count of the service for a percentage of the subscriber fee for each customer subscribed. The NFL would get more if the number of subscribers were more than that, but that’s no where near $50 million each, let alone $500 million. This would be a race to the bottom and the cable companies would minimize risk.


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Premium Member
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3,740 Posts
No. The NFL loses the strength of its bargaining position then. It becomes just another premium package to the distributors. Having an exclusive is a cachet, it’s a mark of prestige. It sets the service offering it apart from the others.

As a non-exclusive, they would pay the NFL a per-subscriber fee, just like HBO, Showtime, Cinemax, and the other premium channels. No guaranteed money. Best case under this scenario for the NFL is a guaranteed minimum number of subscribers for each cable co, maybe 5-10% of subscriber count of the service for a percentage of the subscriber fee for each customer subscribed. The NFL would get more if the number of subscribers were more than that, but that’s no where near $50 million each, let alone $500 million. This would be a race to the bottom and the cable companies would minimize risk.
My post was in response to the question "Do you think that there's any way to get the kind of money that the NFL is looking for without NFLST being exclusive?".

I agree that the answer is no.
 

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Premium Member
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11,397 Posts
Lets say they get $500 million each from Apple, Amazon, Google, Disney+, Comcast, Spectrum, DirecTV, and Dish to carry NFL ST on a non-exclusive basis. There is $4 billion. But would those companies be willing to spend $500 million for a non-exclusive?

No one would pay a fixed price for a non-exclusive. They'd tell the NFL, how much do you want me to pay per subscriber and I'll mark it up $50 and sell however many I can get. Same way MLBEI and NHLCI work for residential customers.

If the NFL thought they could make more money that way they might consider it, but it would have to be a LOT more, because this way they know exactly how much revenue they're getting each year.
 

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Unless you've been living under a rock and haven’t kept up with the real news. We could be heading into a recession come 2023. The NFL might just have to take what it can get when their broadcasting rights end after DIRECTV’s last season which is this year. People aren’t gonna be paying $300 or $400 for a pricy package when people start getting laid off. It might be a take it or leave it thing. Sure Apple and Amazon have the money but will they get enough people to buy the package after the deal is signed. We’ll see won’t we.
 

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Godfather
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868 Posts
Unless you've been living under a rock and haven’t kept up with the real news. We could be heading into a recession come 2023. The NFL might just have to take what it can get when their broadcasting rights end after DIRECTV’s last season which is this year. People aren’t gonna be paying $300 or $400 for a pricy package when people start getting laid off. It might be a take it or leave it thing. Sure Apple and Amazon have the money but will they get enough people to buy the package after the deal is signed. We’ll see won’t we.
Do you think any of the companies bidding for this or the NFL are concerned about the long term effects of a recession? Sure, it may hurt for a year or so, but not that much, and will probably bounce back pretty strong. But, the is is like a 10 year deal, so one potential bad year isn’t going to cut thing back that much.



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Beware the Attack Basset
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25,893 Posts
Lets say they get $500 million each from Apple, Amazon, Google, Disney+, Comcast, Spectrum, DirecTV, and Dish to carry NFL ST on a non-exclusive basis. There is $4 billion.
This doesn't solve the NFL's sole source requirement unless one of those players takes responsibility for account management and distribution of the product.
 

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Moving from an exclusive with DirecTV satellite to either a mainstream streaming provider or the MLB non-exclusive model is great for NFL fans. It opens the games from <20M households to almost every household. That's a good thing. In my geography there's very few satellite dishes these days, but almost every house has access to streaming. Geez, FiOS in this area is <$40/mo for 300/300 service. And while it's usually best to never say never, it's seems highly likely that they'll be an Apple or Amazon announcement within the next few months, with long shot at Disney & Google. 99% of NFL fans that can afford it will be happy.
 

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Super Moderator
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My post was in response to the question "Do you think that there's any way to get the kind of money that the NFL is looking for without NFLST being exclusive?".

I agree that the answer is no.
Yep. The "plan" falls apart when one can't find enough companies to cover the billion dollar total for a piece of the action. NFL ST was only worth $1.5 billion as an exclusive. I don't see anyone shelling out half a billion to compete with a long list of companies. Two companies paying $1.5 billion each to reach the NFL's goal of $3 billion? It would have to be worthwhile for both companies knowing that they didn't have an exclusive.

At this point it seems like just another convoluted excuse for not saying "Bye Bye" ... and I am glad that you're in agreement that it simply won't work.
 

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Premium Member
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Yep. The "plan" falls apart when one can't find enough companies to cover the billion dollar total for a piece of the action. NFL ST was only worth $1.5 billion as an exclusive. I don't see anyone shelling out half a billion to compete with a long list of companies. Two companies paying $1.5 billion each to reach the NFL's goal of $3 billion? It would have to be worthwhile for both companies knowing that they didn't have an exclusive.

At this point it seems like just another convoluted excuse for not saying "Bye Bye" ... and I am glad that you're in agreement that it simply won't work.
Yeah I see no way multiple providers would ever work. The other theory of the company that gets it can allow another service to license it so they can sell it to their subscribers, like DIRECTV…but I don’t see any incentive for that company to want to do that. If it is Apple will only Apple TV+ Subscribers be able to buy or can anyone. If the latter then it won’t make Apple TV+ any new subscribers. Same for Amazon and Prime.
 

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When I signed on just now there was a 4 question survey about NFL Sunday Ticket that popped up at the bottom of my phone. Has anyone else seen it and answered the 4 questions?
I saw it and just killed it. My first thought was it was just a popup and after I killed it I remembered I don’t get ads here. Maybe I should have answered the questions.
 

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Administrator
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FYI - I've asked for any future surveys to be disabled for premium members moving forward.
 

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Beware the Attack Basset
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25,893 Posts
It opens the games from <20M households to almost every household.
"Almost every" is clearly an overstatement but it is probably upwards of 190M.

The funny part about DIRECTV being the sole provider was that there are much more than 60M that can't get DIRECTV (hence the not-too-easy-to-qualify-for streaming option). It is estimated that the percentage of Americans that live in apartments is 17%. Combine that with those who don't have LOS for any reason and DIRECTV was spitting in the face of all of these potential viewers until the streaming product became available.
 

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I know one damn thing. I love to watch football. But I won’t pay noone $500 for it. There’s a lot of other places that $500 needs to spent for like putting food on the family dinner table for starters. I don’t care if DIRECTV has the package or Amazon or Apple or Google. Nobody is gonna be able to afford to pay for a $500 package. At $300 right now it’s already a lot of dough & $400 if you get Max. Of course this year a lot of folks including myself are getting the package for free. Pay $500 to watch a “buffering circle” spin around on your screen because they decided it would be better to move the package to a streaming service. Sounds like a real plan there Hoss!
 

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3,591 Posts
Agree not looking forward to spinning circles and distorted images . Hard enough attempting to watch MLB on apple tv app thing...

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