Carmel Predicts DBS Growth

532 Views 1 Reply 2 Participants Last post by AllieVi, Sep 19, 2002

John Corn

Discussion Starter · Sep 19, 2002

Direct-broadcast satellite penetration will grow to 30.1 million homes, or 27 percent of the U.S. population, according to a new study released by The Carmel Group.

While DBS penetration currently stands at 19 percent, Carmel predicted that growth of another 11 million homes will produce DBS-industry revenue of $21.6 billion by 2008. DBS interactive-TV subscribers will grow at a 38 percent compound annual rate, the study predicted, producing 21.9 million homes by 2006. The comparable cable figure, Carmel predicted, will be 29.1 million homes.

The report also predicted that DBS will generate $2 billion in revenue from 4.4 million satellite-broadband subscribers. DBS currently holds the advantage in average revenue per subscriber -- $54 per month versus $48 for cable.

http://www.tvinsite.com/multichannelnews/index.asp?layout=story&doc_id=102240&display=breakingNews

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AllieVi

· #2 · Sep 19, 2002

When I read predictions by individuals/organizations, I'm always tempted to learn how their prior predictions fared. We've become accustomed to being bombarded by forecasts of what the future holds, but seldom see any tracking of how good the forecasters are.

A securities broker includes a list of stocks recommend for year-ahead performance with my monthly statement. I've saved the lists for the last few years and recently reviewed them - their ability to predict the future has been horrible.

It would be nice to have a clearinghouse for long-term tracking of predictions such as the one in this thread.

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