[SamC]

This will not happen for a very long time, if ever.

The first thing that happens if they make linear ESPN available unbundled and on the internet is millions of people drop cable/DBS/alternative (YouTubeTV, etc). The second thing that happens is every cable, et al, company either drops ESPN totally, or moves it to a stand alone separate tier.

If you project a buy rate of 25%, which is what most writers expect, Disney would need to charge upwards of $50/month to make any profit at all.

 

[SamC]

The assumptions the author makes are unsupportable.

The number of people that would stick with cable if they could get ESPN a la carte, is not 50M. It is probably closer to zero.

The buy rate for ESPN is certainly not 50M. Probably closer to 25M.

The other bad assumption is found earlier. The “cable is dying” crew always cite the number of cable/DBS/teleco subscribers as in decline. Leaving out alternative linear providers like YouTubeTV, which has ESPN and is linear. These people are not cord cutters, but cord switchers, still paying for linear channels.

The number of people who are going to give up linear TV has probably been reached. The current number. Most of whom did it to get away from high sports fees.