IMHO it is going to be harder to guess what Fox is going to do in the future. The game of "follow the money" that determined what might survive is changing.
With regard to Fox the big change is the $1 retrans fee which will be implemented in three steps over the next three years with most affiliates, many of which will be holding out for a big increase with cable and satellite companies over the next few years. This will allow Fox suits to think more like cable channel suits.
Also the do look at who's carrying the production cost risks and how is the international distribution. Fox has kept "Fringe" on the air well past its traditional broadcast channel expiration date partly because of the following (all the data below comes from
IMDb):
If Season 1 DVD sales have been decent, there is always a chance Warner may want another season and keep the cost to Fox down. Whether Fox is willing to give them that considering how poor the ratings have been is very doubtful. But in Hungary RTL Klub Televízió has the first airing and Prizma is already airing syndicated repeats. So who knows?
Looking at the other shows discussed here:
"Terra Nova"
Production cost financing spread between:
- Amblin Television
- Chernin Entertainment
- Kapital Entertainment
- Siesta Productions
- 20th Century Fox Television
Distribution:
- Fox Network (2011-) (USA) (TV)
- Citytv (2011-) (Canada) (TV)
- 2BE (2011-) (Belgium) (TV) (Flemish speaking region)
- BeTV (2011-) (Belgium) (TV) (French speaking region)
- British Sky Broadcasting (BSkyB) (2011-) (Ireland) (TV) (Sky One)
- British Sky Broadcasting (BSkyB) (2011-) (UK) (TV) (Sky One)
- Canal Fox (2011-) (Brazil) (TV)
- Canal+ (2012) (France) (TV) (limited)
- Channel One Russia (2011-) (Armenia) (TV)
- Channel One Russia (2011-) (Russia) (TV)
- FOXlife (2011-) (Serbia) (TV)
- FOXlife (2011-) (Slovenia) (TV)
- FX (2012) (Greece) (TV)
- FX (2011-) (Turkey) (TV)
- Fox (2011-) (Italy) (TV)
- Fox (2011-) (Japan) (TV)
- Fox (2011) (Malaysia) (TV)
- Fox (2011-) (Poland) (TV)
- Jack TV (201?) (Philippines) (TV)
- M-Net (2012) (South Africa) (TV)
- M6 Métropole Télévision (2012) (France) (TV)
- Mainostelevisio (MTV3) (2011-) (Finland) (TV)
- Network Ten (2011-) (Australia) (TV)
- Orbit Showtime Network (OSN) (2011-) (Non-USA) (TV) (OSN First) (Middle East)
- ProSieben Television (2012) (Germany) (TV)
- Star World India Pvt. Ltd. (2011-) (India) (TV)
- Star World India Pvt. Ltd. (2011-) (Pakistan) (TV)
- TV 2 Zebra (2011-) (Norway) (TV)
- TV4 Sweden (2011-) (Sweden) (TV)
- TVI (2011) (Portugal) (TV)
- Televisão Independente (TVI) (2011-) (Portugal) (TV)
- Yes (2011-) (Israel) (TV)
"Alcatraz"
Production cost financing spread between:
- Bonanza Productions
- Bad Robot (in association with)
- Warner Bros. Television (in association with)
- Alcatraz Films
Distribution:
- Fox Network (2012) (USA) (TV)
- Citytv (2012) (Canada) (TV)
- DiziMax (2012) (Turkey) (TV)
- HOT (2012) (Israel) (TV)
- Middle East Broadcasting Centre (MBC) (2012) (Non-USA) (TV) (MBC Action) (Arab World)
- Nine Network Australia (2012) (Australia) (TV)
- TNT (2012) (Spain) (TV)
- TV Norge (2012) (Norway) (TV)
- Warner Channel Latin America (2012) (Non-USA) (TV) (Latin America)
- Watch (2012) (UK) (TV)
"The Finder"
Production cost financing spread between:
- Josephson Entertainment
- Far Field Productions
- 20th Century Fox Television
Distribution:
- Fox Network (2012) (USA) (TV)
It's pretty clear that "The Finder" hasn't got much going for it other than Fox get's some income off of a Fox company being a part of the production team. It doesn't have much of a chance.
"Terra Nova" has a strong group of investors and wide international distribution although many of the distribution outlets are News Corp subsidiaries like Fox. IMHO it will have another season.
"Alcatraz" is the show that is on the edge. The only risk to Fox is the revenue from the hour it assigns to it. The production companies could give Fox a break on the price given the revenue from international distribution. I guess it might become a Friday show. Who knows?