[rabit ears]

I usually hang out in the other forum, but I found this item in Business Week to be very interesting:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_31/b4094065678206.htm?chan=search

 

[harsh]

Where DISH Network is actually at will have to wait until August 2nd. There's lots of speculation but that's typical for the time period around quarterly reports.

The author seems somewhat clueless when it comes to what drives the industry. Labeling the dual TV receivers as a gimmick is just plain stupid.

 

[Ira Lacher]

But the piece is spot-on with programming, especially the sports programming. It's what pushed me out of their orbit for a dozen years and into D*.

 

[intrac]

Aug. 1st is a pivotal day for HD subs.

When the Turbo packages come out for new subs, what happens to programming for existing subs?

Do they get the new Networks?

What happens to MGM, Smithsonian , etc.?

I think the actions from Dish will affect many existing subs.

 

[space86]

More HD Soon :lol:

 

[boba]

I think Charlie the poker playing gambler has seen his luck change finally it happens to all gamblers.

 

[kstuart]

Aug. 1st is a pivotal day for HD subs.

When the Turbo packages come out for new subs, what happens to programming for existing subs?

Do they get the new Networks?

What happens to MGM, Smithsonian , etc.?

I think the actions from Dish will affect many existing subs.

All new National HD channels will be available to all existing subs. Only the new packages will be restricted temporarily to new subs.

MGM and Smithsonian will continue in the same packages that they are now.

PS Ignore all "news" articles that frequently use "could be" "might" "maybe" and "possibly"...

 

[phrelin]

In my opinion the article is typical analyst crap.

Several things about the article:

1. you can tell the writer is uninformed when he concludes with comments about a Dish/Direct merger, like that could happen easily and soon even if Charlie wanted it, and does Business Week have that short an institutional memory that it can't remember this headline JUSTICE DEPARTMENT FILES SUIT TO BLOCK ECHOSTAR'S ACQUISITION OF HUGHES ELECTRONICS right after this story broke Echostar / Dish Network Acquires Hughes / DirecTV For 28.5 Billion;
2. the channel count is irrelevant in the long term of two years, though wall street analysts have trouble thinking further than two months;
3. the AT&T partnership is not a long-term issue, as next year it will focus on marketing it's own service "U-verse", with satellite as a rural and short-term backup until it has expanded its capacity (check out the news releases); and
4. the "flashy boxes" comment shows real ignorance.

The article is inadvertantly correct about concerns that are real:

1. Dish's long term marketing plan for 2005-2007 failed to anticipate the correct timing and critical issues for HD during that period - i.e. the importance of sports channels, they should have been managing Voom while infusing it with a lot more cash since they decided to invest in Voom, and getting on top of marketing which could have countered DirecTV with "hours of HD programming" preventing DirecTV from getting a brand identity associated with HD;
2. Dish's current marketing plan is good but so far its execution is terrible, at least partly because retaining current customers should be a central part of the effort (i.e. a failure to provide for RSNs for current AbsoluteHD customers;
3. the Charlie and company "you can't do that to me" attitude in channel pricing negotiations could cost Dish Network far more than it will save it; and
4. the Charlie and company "you can't do that to me" attitude with regard to the lawsuits with News Corp., Rainbow, the NFL, etc., also will cost Dish Network far more than any possible financial gain.

But no one in his right mind would write off anything Echostar unless Charlie were to die.

However, they'd better deal with replacing 129° soon, says the grumbling current customer who just realized that the new HD channels are mostly on weak transponders.

 

[James Long]

129° isn't DISH's task to replace. They could loan Ceil another or a different satellite to boost the signal from 129° ... but it is Ceil's job to get the new satellite in place.

Despite the constant (since before I started caring) predictions of the death of DISH Network because of one thing or another - usually some management decision that one does not agree with - DISH remains profitable. Gloom and doom doesn't change that. There is always the next thing that will kill DISH and yet DISH survives and thrives as a profitable business.

 

[phrelin]

When I said "they'd better deal with replacing 129° soon" what I really meant was I hope they have a Plan B.

 

[BNUMM]

Even if Dish does have a net loss of customers it is not an omen. I am no fan of Charlie's ( but I do think he is a smart business man) but I am positive that things will eventually pick up again.

 

[Albie]

Looks like one of those space filler fluff pieces on a company that has had a lot of headline space lately (most of which are perceived negatively because of the various lawsuits) with no analysis on the real meaning of those headlines or the details of what is really going on at Echostar and Dishnetwork. Unfortunatly Businessweek is starting to resemble the Time magaizine of the business journal world. I think Phrelin hit it on the head above about how the article missed on soo many points.

 

[jclewter79]

A low quarter here and a low quarter there is going to happen. I would not hold my breath for merger news just yet. I have a feeling that the new approach with the HD turbo packs is going to work out for E*. I think that soon everybody will be getting mpeg4 receivers regardless of the type of TV invloved. I think E* will beat D* to the total mpeg2 shut down. When that happens can you say hello bandwidth!!!

 

[kal915]

When I said "they'd better deal with replacing 129° soon" what I really meant was I hope they have a Plan B.

I hope so too.

 

[BattleZone]

I think that soon everybody will be getting mpeg4 receivers regardless of the type of TV invloved.

I think you are on the right track. 625's have been in short supply for 6-7 weeks, and we've just been informed that we are going to be substituting 622/722 receivers for them. That is official. I've also heard, but not officially, that the 625 has actually been discontinued. If so, that means that all DVRs installed from now on will be HD-DVRs.

The only stupid thing is that they are creating the work orders for us to install Dish 500s with the 722s when they don't have HD programming. Hopefully they figure out that they would be better off installing 1000.2 dishes (at least in the west), so that people who want to upgrade to HD can do so with a phone call.

 

[phrelin]

I wouldn't be surprised to see all MPEG4 compatible receivers offered-up soon to every customer who has an MPEG2 box, at verrrry a reasonable price, coinciding with a final decision in TiVo v Echostar.

But the installation of a 500 with a ViP box except where a wing dish will be necessary seems like a waste, unless of course they're short on 1000.2 dishes. Or, even more likely, the 18-month planning for satellites will make the 1000.2 obsolete.

Gee, speculation is fun!

 

[Sirshagg]

Let me get this straight. Dish might loose 1/4 of one percent of their customers this quarter. If they do this would be the first loss in 10 years, and all of a sudden it time for a fire sale? Someone is clearly sufferening from a cranial-rectum infarction!

 

[Michael P]

Let me get this straight. Dish might loose 1/4 of one percent of their customers this quarter. If they do this would be the first loss in 10 years, and all of a sudden it time for a fire sale? Someone is clearly sufferening from a cranial-rectum infarction!

Exactly! It's a miracle that they went 10 years, especially in the current economy. The bottom didn't drop out yesterday, the dollar has been eroding for some time. A quarter of one percent loss is nothing when you look at the big picture.

The author of that article might have an agenda. In fact, that agenda is not even thinly veiled.

 

[SaltiDawg]

...
The only stupid thing is that they are creating the work orders for us to install Dish 500s with the 722s when they don't have HD programming. Hopefully they figure out that they would be better off installing 1000.2 dishes (at least in the west), so that people who want to upgrade to HD can do so with a phone call.

For the East Coast, at least part, we need a second dish for 61.5. My gut reaction is that putting up a second dish for new customers when the 2nd dish is not initially required makes sense. I'd guess a second service visit would be required to install a new receiver down the road were the customer want to upgrade to a package requiring that second dish.

Not sure, just thinking out loud.

 

[phrelin]

I just love the speculative analysis that appears in the press in this case TV Week:

Verizon Communications' subscriber growth for its FiOS fiber-optic television service slowed during the second quarter as the company cut back promotions while competing satellite and cable companies may have stemmed customer defections....

"That FiOS is already seeing a sequential deceleration is a startling development," wrote Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett in a note to clients today. "Seasonality and competitive response no doubt also account for some of the slowdown. Nevertheless, given the still very rapid rate of network extension, it is remarkable to see FiOS growth already slowing."

In case nobody on Wall Street has noticed, we're having a bit of an economic downturn and getting a better TV signal isn't "the thing we must have" over paying our mortgage payments or rent.