[Niatross]

Are the older KU-Band satellites (100, 101, 110 & 119) going to ever use MPEG-4 compression or are only the newer Ka-Band satellites (99 and 103) going to use MPEG-4?

I ask this, because once SD programming disappears (years from now...), Can those KU-Band satellites be re-vamped to broadcast MPEG-4 programming.

I don't know much about satellites and don't even know if this is possible.

 

[Niatross]

Typo: There is no such thing as a KU-Band 100 degree Satellite. Sorry!!!

 

[P Smith]

Possible if no more MPEG-2 receivers left.

 

[carl6]

The satellite itself doesn't care about mpeg2 or 4, so yes it is possible to send mpeg4 via the Ku satellites.

However, as P Smith noted, the pacing item is the installed base of mpeg2 receivers. It is not economically viable to change them all out to go to mpeg4.

As far as SD programming dissapearing, well I suppose it will someday, just like black and white programming is just about dead now - but it will take decades I think for that to happen.

Carl

 

[inkahauts]

They have been broadcasting LA DNS HD channels in MPEG-4 from 119 for several months, so yes, it can be done...

 

[tkrandall]

Its not so much the SD programming that will disappear, but the need for DirecTV to carry BOTH a HD feed and a SD feed. Aside from the issue of the number of older receivers that cannot handle an MPEG-4 feed, there is no reason DirecTV could not simply carry a single "HD" feed (i.e. the one they boradcast OTA) from the local station (whether the program is HD or SD does not matter), and the reciever would simply output it according to how you have it hooked up to the TV and the type output line used.

DISh is going this way starting with their "eastern arc" all MPEG-4 service. They will not be carrying a SD version of a local channel if their is an HD version carried. No need to.

 

[jjohns]

Are the older KU-Band satellites (100, 101, 110 & 119) going to ever use MPEG-4 compression or are only the newer Ka-Band satellites (99 and 103) going to use MPEG-4?

I ask this, because once SD programming disappears (years from now...), Can those KU-Band satellites be re-vamped to broadcast MPEG-4 programming.

I don't know much about satellites and don't even know if this is possible.

Saw Albatross race live a couple of times.

 

[rudeney]

I bet that they will begin to phase out MPEG2 before too long. Of course it will mean having to replace some older receivers, but eventually that won’t be as costly as it sounds. We’ve seen them upgrading HR10-250’s for free. Of course there are less of those than legacy non-HD/non-DVR MPEG2 receivers, but then again, those “standard” receivers are far less expensive to replace. Over time, attrition will take car of many of them. With the growing popularity of HD, more and more MPEG2 receivers will be discarded. At some point, they will probably start refusing to activate MPEG2 receivers (like they have done with UTV’s). Once the number of active MPEG2 receivers reaches that magic number where replacing them will be cheaper than launching a new satellite, then they’ll make the move to MPEG4.

I’ll go out on a limb and predict it happens within 3 years. Right now, all new D* equipment is MPEG4 ready. The February 2009 sunset of analog TV will push a lot of people into HDTV which will push many content providers to switch over. The more HDTV we have, the more people will want it and the more MPEG4 receivers D* will supply. It will be a snowball effect. By the end of 2010, D* could likely sunset new activations of any non-MPEG4 equipment and begin the replacement of existing, active MPEG2 receivers. By 2011, the legacy receivers should be gone and then they sunset MPEG2.

 

[stephenC]

Possible if no more MPEG-2 receivers left.

I think by the time this happens, some of the satellites will be EOL (end-of-life).

 

[tkrandall]

I bet that they will begin to phase out MPEG2 before too long. Of course it will mean having to replace some older receivers, but eventually that won't be as costly as it sounds. We've seen them upgrading HR10-250's for free. Of course there are less of those than legacy non-HD/non-DVR MPEG2 receivers, but then again, those "standard" receivers are far less expensive to replace. Over time, attrition will take car of many of them. With the growing popularity of HD, more and more MPEG2 receivers will be discarded. At some point, they will probably start refusing to activate MPEG2 receivers (like they have done with UTV's). Once the number of active MPEG2 receivers reaches that magic number where replacing them will be cheaper than launching a new satellite, then they'll make the move to MPEG4.

I'll go out on a limb and predict it happens within 3 years. Right now, all new D* equipment is MPEG4 ready. The February 2009 sunset of analog TV will push a lot of people into HDTV which will push many content providers to switch over. The more HDTV we have, the more people will want it and the more MPEG4 receivers D* will supply. It will be a snowball effect. By the end of 2010, D* could likely sunset new activations of any non-MPEG4 equipment and begin the replacement of existing, active MPEG2 receivers. By 2011, the legacy receivers should be gone and then they sunset MPEG2.

In order to fully realize the benefit, they will need to get rid of having separate SD and HD feeds of locals. A single HD feed should suffice. So, in addition to new receivers, that would seem to require upgrading everyone to a Ka/Ku dish.

 

[Maverickster]

However, as P Smith noted, the pacing item is the installed base of mpeg2 receivers. It is not economically viable to change them all out to go to mpeg4.

Not doubting the truth of this statement, but just asking an honest question: Which would be the more expensive way of increasing mpeg4 capacity by an amount equal to the capacity currently taken up by mpeg2: (a) replacing all of the mpeg2 receivers in circulation with mpeg4 receivers and then using the former mpeg2 space for mpeg4 stuff; or (b) launching a new satellite (or two, or three, or however many it would take)?

Just curious.

--Mav

 

[rudeney]

In order to fully realize the benefit, they will need to get rid of having separate SD and HD feeds of locals. A single HD feed should suffice. So, in addition to new receivers, that would seem to require upgrading everyone to a Ka/Ku dish.

Again, just something else to factor against the cost of launching a new bird. As more customers jump on the HD bandwagon over the next year or two, there will be more KaKu dishes installed.

 

[RobertE]

Just my educated guess here, but here's what I think they will follow.

Let attrition and HD upgrades do a bulk of the swaps.
Next you start telling sports subscribers that they need to update their boxes next season in order to keep the package. Just like what is being done now with the NFLST.
Follow that with Premiums.
Lastly the rest.

Managed properly, it can go very, very smooth and cost effective for DirecTv and customers.

 

[carl6]

Not doubting the truth of this statement, but just asking an honest question: Which would be the more expensive way of increasing mpeg4 capacity by an amount equal to the capacity currently taken up by mpeg2: (a) replacing all of the mpeg2 receivers in circulation with mpeg4 receivers and then using the former mpeg2 space for mpeg4 stuff; or (b) launching a new satellite (or two, or three, or however many it would take)?

Just curious.

--Mav

Probably cheaper to replace the receivers. But there is not a need for that, thus why spends several millions of dollars doing so. Not a good business decision.

Carl

 

[Kodok]

Don't mind to have SD lives a little bit longer until HD Technology is maturing. Tho' it doesn't happen very often, HD signals are more touchy to rain fade or snow fade. SD is still a lot better than no TV at all.

Just my $0.02.

 

[Tom Robertson]

I bet that they will begin to phase out MPEG2 before too long. Of course it will mean having to replace some older receivers, but eventually that won't be as costly as it sounds. We've seen them upgrading HR10-250's for free. Of course there are less of those than legacy non-HD/non-DVR MPEG2 receivers, but then again, those "standard" receivers are far less expensive to replace. Over time, attrition will take car of many of them. With the growing popularity of HD, more and more MPEG2 receivers will be discarded. At some point, they will probably start refusing to activate MPEG2 receivers (like they have done with UTV's). Once the number of active MPEG2 receivers reaches that magic number where replacing them will be cheaper than launching a new satellite, then they'll make the move to MPEG4.

I'll go out on a limb and predict it happens within 3 years. Right now, all new D* equipment is MPEG4 ready. The February 2009 sunset of analog TV will push a lot of people into HDTV which will push many content providers to switch over. The more HDTV we have, the more people will want it and the more MPEG4 receivers D* will supply. It will be a snowball effect. By the end of 2010, D* could likely sunset new activations of any non-MPEG4 equipment and begin the replacement of existing, active MPEG2 receivers. By 2011, the legacy receivers should be gone and then they sunset MPEG2.

!rolling 3 years? :lol: Start with the number 45M. How many SD receivers there are.

Not doubting the truth of this statement, but just asking an honest question: Which would be the more expensive way of increasing mpeg4 capacity by an amount equal to the capacity currently taken up by mpeg2: (a) replacing all of the mpeg2 receivers in circulation with mpeg4 receivers and then using the former mpeg2 space for mpeg4 stuff; or (b) launching a new satellite (or two, or three, or however many it would take)?

Just curious.

--Mav

Probably cheaper to replace the receivers. But there is not a need for that, thus why spends several millions of dollars doing so. Not a good business decision.

Carl

Since I couldn't get others to do this math, I will:
45M receivers
15.5M customers without 5lnb dish
$35 loaded cost of replacing an SD receiver (outrageously conservative!)
$100 loaded cost of rolling a truck with a 5lnb (also outrageously conservative)

45Mx$35 = $1.58 Billion and yet does not produce $1 of new revenue...
15.5Mx$100 = 1.55 Billion and might produce some revenue if some of the customers upgrade to HD programming.

BTW, DIRECTVs average cost to upgrade a customer from MPEG2 hd to MPEG4 has been listed at $600, if I recall correctly. So if that is 15.5M customers (and ignoring the other receivers) try a cost of $9Billion.

This is not going to happen in 3 years. This is not going to happen in 5, 7, or likely even 10 years.

BTW2, DIRECTV is still producing MPEG2 only receivers, D12 and SatGo are still available any MPEG2 only. The clock hasn't started yet.

Cheers,
Tom

 

[evan_s]

I think they are heading that way but the complete replacement of sd mpeg2 is still a long ways off IMO. As tom said there a lot of SD receivers out there and I don't think they are getting churned out that quickly. The R22 is only available in areas where they are required for SD locals and they don't even have a mpeg4 sd receiver just the mpeg4 sd dvr so we've got a ways to go before natural churn is even going to be helping. Even once they are only giving out mpeg4sd equipment for all new installs its going to take a long time to churn those old receivers out. Straight up receivers don't have moving parts that wear out. People can and will keep them around for additional tvs long after they've upgraded to HD Tvs for their main locations. A huge number of these old receivers are owned and not leased so an existing customer canceling doesn't guarantee the receiver is won't end up back in use like returned a leased receiver would if DirecTV didn't want it to.

Obviously they could push this more if they wanted to but I don't think they really need to. They have 5 500mhz blocks with their allocations at 99/101/103. The Ka bands are all still only partially full with only a single bird for each 500mhz block. They've got a lot more space to fill up there.

Dish is pushing all MPEG4 harder because they pretty much have to. Since they have been sticking with KU equipment and sats they don't have access to nearly as much bandwidth as DirecTV does and it's in odd spots that have LOS issues in one area or another, EG 129 and 62.

 

[rudeney]

!rolling 3 years? :lol: Start with the number 45M. How many SD receivers there are.

That's *today*. Fast forward a year and there will be a fewer SD receivers as customers convert to HDTV's and want HD receivers. Fast forward two years and even less, three years and, well, my prediction is "zero" due to attrition and my little plan for D*-sponsored upgrades.

Since I couldn't get others to do this math, I will:
45M receivers
15.5M customers without 5lnb dish
$35 loaded cost of replacing an SD receiver (outrageously conservative!)
$100 loaded cost of rolling a truck with a 5lnb (also outrageously conservative)

45Mx$35 = $1.58 Billion and yet does not produce $1 of new revenue...
15.5Mx$100 = 1.55 Billion and might produce some revenue if some of the customers upgrade to HD programming.

Assuming a new commitment would be required for the free upgrade, that doesn't really produce revenue, but it does have value. Also, saving money by not having to launch "D13" or "D14" would also be positive value. And having more "bandwidth" to play with might give them room for extra-charge services, like more PPV's, sports packages, or interactive features.

BTW, DIRECTVs average cost to upgrade a customer from MPEG2 hd to MPEG4 has been listed at $600, if I recall correctly. So if that is 15.5M customers (and ignoring the other receivers) try a cost of $9Billion.

This is not going to happen in 3 years. This is not going to happen in 5, 7, or likely even 10 years.

Remember, that cost is because D*is having to pay HSP's. They are buying up HSP's left and right. I wonder if that's o reduce this cost and get thigns moving toward dropping MPEG2? Also, part of my prediction relies on customers voluntarily moving to MPEg4 equipment to get HD. They could also start working on this from the package angle, too. For example, you ant NFL-ST or MLB-RI? You gotta have MPEG4 equipment. Don't have it? Well, re-up your sports subscription at full price, agree to a new service commitment and D* covers the upgrade.

BTW2, DIRECTV is still producing MPEG2 only receivers, D12 and SatGo are still available any MPEG2 only. The clock hasn't started yet.

Oh, we *must* stop that immediately!

 

[cartrivision]

Just my educated guess here, but here's what I think they will follow.

Let attrition and HD upgrades do a bulk of the swaps.
Next you start telling sports subscribers that they need to update their boxes next season in order to keep the package. Just like what is being done now with the NFLST.
Follow that with Premiums.
Lastly the rest.

Managed properly, it can go very, very smooth and cost effective for DirecTv and customers.

Don't forget the markets that currently have only MPEG4 SD locals. Once the HD locals start comming online in those markets, the SD local feeds will be shut off and SD customers will get the HD MPEG4 feed which will be downconverted to SD resolution. It's a win-win for DirecTV and the customer. DirecTV won't have to waste bandwidth broadcasting a duplicate SD mirror feed, and SD customers will get a very high quality SD channel since they will be watching the HD channel at SD resolution.

 

[Tom Robertson]

That's *today*. Fast forward a year and there will be a fewer SD receivers as customers convert to HDTV's and want HD receivers. Fast forward two years and even less, three years and, well, my prediction is "zero" due to attrition and my little plan for D*-sponsored upgrades.

Assuming a new commitment would be required for the free upgrade, that doesn't really produce revenue, but it does have value. Also, saving money by not having to launch "D13" or "D14" would also be positive value. And having more "bandwidth" to play with might give them room for extra-charge services, like more PPV's, sports packages, or interactive features.

Remember, that cost is because D*is having to pay HSP's. They are buying up HSP's left and right. I wonder if that's o reduce this cost and get thigns moving toward dropping MPEG2? Also, part of my prediction relies on customers voluntarily moving to MPEg4 equipment to get HD. They could also start working on this from the package angle, too. For example, you ant NFL-ST or MLB-RI? You gotta have MPEG4 equipment. Don't have it? Well, re-up your sports subscription at full price, agree to a new service commitment and D* covers the upgrade.

Oh, we *must* stop that immediately!

No matter how one tries to slice it, 45M is a big number. and 15.5M is a big number too.

And if DIRECTV buys the HSPs how much of the $600 is saved? 5% at most? They still have to pay the employees they've acquired. I'm guessing DIRECTV will save some just because of tighter control and better training, but not a significant amount of the $9Billion.

Lastly, 3 years of more people going to HD will help. But you won't turnover all the receivers in 3 years.

D13 won't cost $1B. And if ALL the SD were converted to MPEG4, you'd at most save the cost of 1 Boeing 702, I'm bettin.

So... I don't see anyone replacing MPEG2 with MPEG4 in 3 years. No sooner than 10 years after the last SatGo or MPEG2 only D1* receiver is made.

Cheers,
Tom