DBSTalk Forum banner
21 - 40 of 67 Posts

·
Hall Of Fame
Joined
·
2,472 Posts
I disagree.

What works for the NFL is a regular and rather large income.
Correct, which is why they sell the package as an exclusive for more than the the customer can make back.

That's the whole point of looking for a new partner who will be handling all of the gory details. The fact that the NFL was willing to suffer along with the number of eyeballs that DIRECTV.
The NFL has no “partner” vis ST. It has a customer.

As to the “number of eyeballs”, that would be something like 95% of the country, which is how many people CAN get the service if they wanted it. The idea that some random guy is setting in his recliner watching some crap game because he has sworn to be damed if he ever dumped cable for DBS, is just not accurate.

Thinking anyone will pay one cent more for ST than they can expect to make back, on a non-exclusive basis, is just a basic misunderstanding of math.
 

·
Hall Of Fame
Joined
·
4,860 Posts
the NFL also wants the commercial part to work and sat tv works well for them as the bandwidth to stream 8+ hd feeds is an lot and they will also need to maybe even upgrade the Matrix Switchers to have more in puts as one box per TV makes bandwith even more of an issue. and WIFI may not work to well for 8+ HD feeds vs e-net.
NFL could care less. If Amazon gives them 4 billion a year thats all they want.. How that effects commercial places with bandwidth or whatever is someone elses problem
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
11,217 Posts
Non exclusivity increases the total subscriber count. Today there are some people who might get NFLST but can't because it is only on Directv. If it was exclusive to Apple or Amazon or whoever the same would apply.

There are levels of exclusivity, too. They could offer commercial exclusivity, and residential exclusivity. They could offer residential streaming exclusivity and residential linear exclusivity.

Compared to what they make from all the other stuff, NFLST is fairly small. If they can't make more from NFLST's next out of market contract than they are currently from AT&T it isn't a big deal for them, because they are making so much more from the Sunday/Monday/Thursday stuff. They might be willing to accept less in exchange for something else, like better metrics about who is watching which they can't get as good as data from linear but can from streaming.
 

·
Beware the Attack Basset
Joined
·
23,871 Posts
The commercial establishments will do what they have to do to make it work if it is important to them. I'm not particularly swayed by this argument.

I don't buy that this is a priority for the NFL. I'm betting they'd be just as happy to have viewers watching at home.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
53,120 Posts
Thinking anyone will pay one cent more for ST than they can expect to make back, on a non-exclusive basis, is just a basic misunderstanding of math.
The key to the NFL getting an exclusive deal is finding a company willing to show them the money. If no one steps up to give the NFL what they feel the package is worth what do you expect the NFL to do? If the highest bidder offers $1 billion and not a penny more do you expect the NFL to say "that's the best we can do" and accept the deal? I don't. I expect the NFL will follow the path that brings them the most money ... and while DIRECTV was their cash cow paying $1.5 billion for the past few years that cow has dried up and won't be giving milk a year from now.

The NFL cannot force DIRECTV nor any other company to pay for the exclusive rights. They are not all powerful.
 

·
Hall Of Fame
Joined
·
2,472 Posts
Non exclusivity increases the total subscriber count. Today there are some people who might get NFLST but can't because it is only on Directv.
If you want NFLST, you call the nice lady at 1 800 DIRECTV, she will get somebody out real quick to instal DirecTV.

Yes, we can knit pick about the, statistically insignificant, handful of people who cannot get DBS, but remember there is an internet solution for those few people.

Again, the idea that some hardheaded grouchy old man is sitting in his recliner somewhere watching a crap game because, by gum, he has had cable since he got back from Korea and he ain’t changing, is just not accurate.
If it was exclusive to Apple or Amazon or whoever the same would apply.
It would? While, yes, there are people who don’t have the internet speed to really support the service, and that number is bigger than the number of people who cannot get DBS, its still not that big a deal, and the only way around that is for it to be on cable, which isn’t happening.

The number of people who currently have ST is something like 99% of the people who want it and can afford it.
 

·
Beware the Attack Basset
Joined
·
23,871 Posts
Yes, we can knit pick about the, statistically insignificant, handful of people who cannot get DBS, but remember there is an internet solution for those few people.
I'd be willing to bet your "statistically insignificant" is way off base. 36% of the US population rents their homes and I'd imagine a sizeable fraction of those are effectively prohibited access to a satellite signal. Even homeowners that would have to do battle with HOAs is probably significant.

The streaming solution has some quirky qualifications (i.e. having been "verified as unable" to use DBS absent LoS, located in certain metropolitan areas or in an identified "select" MDU).

Those who don't have access to broadband is surely a much smaller number.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
4,035 Posts
For me They can Lose the NFL for good
 
  • Like
Reactions: krel

·
Registered
Joined
·
138 Posts
Directv won’t allow the NFL to be dropped from their platform.

When the time comes they will be given the option as an exclusive deal and the option to allow the sale to other providers.

Depending on what those numbers are is what Directv will decide to do.

Each subscriber has a value. I’m sure Directv will run a model to try to determine what the subscriber loss would be vs any potential savings opening it to other providers.

I think we will see a hybrid version where it remains exclusive to commercial establishments such as Bars, but they will open it to competition in residential.

Whatever Directv ends up paying, I am sure the same deal will be offered to cable, and dish network.

I can tell you I doubt you’ll ever see the NFL ticket on Dish. Cable companies may opt in, but they have all gotten along just fine all these years without it.

The only way it’s going to work for any other cable company is if the NFL sold Sunday ticket on a per subscriber basis. However the NFL is so used to getting a billion dollar flat rate, I doubt they are going to put up with a pay as you sell it model

I think they would stand to make less money if they opened it up as a pay as you go basis.

I think what will happen is Directv is going to give the NFL a take it or leave it offer and possibly allow the NFL or Amazon for example have the streaming rights.

But seriously think about this for a minute. We all know it will never be on Dish as long as Charlie owns the company.

No cable company is going to get an exclusive deal since they don’t cover the entire country. It would have to be Comcast/spectrum/Cox and a few others who went in it together.

Then you just cut out all the other customers who are not in those providers foot prints.

You really need another satellite provider, which is Dish, but Dish will never agree to pay a flat rate.

So only thing that makes sense is Directv continue to carry it on a non exclusive basis. NFL is allowed to sell the streaming rights or make a deal with a streaming provider.

If the cable company wants in, they can do it, but will likely have to pay what Directv paid which is unlikely considering their coverage area


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
53,120 Posts
But seriously think about this for a minute. We all know it will never be on Dish as long as Charlie owns the company.
No. That is your opinion, possibly shared by others but your opinion is not fact or knowledge.

If NFL ST becomes a non-exclusive I expect DISH to offer it alongside the other league packages. With the absence of RSNs DISH needs to rely on the league packages and national channel sports more than DIRECTV or other providers. I agree that it is unlikely that DISH will pursue NFL Sunday Ticket as an exclusive - the NFL is too greedy (or needy if you don't like the term greedy).

One thing to remember is that the games that make up NFL Sunday Ticket are the property of the NFL. They are not the property of DIRECTV. The NFL will remain the decision maker as to how those games are distributed. As an example look at DIRECTV's push to expand distribution of NFL Sunday Ticket to what is now DIRECTV stream. The NFL said no and the package remains satellite only with minimal exceptions. DIRECTV's exclusive doesn't give them the right to redistribute the package on other ways than those allowed by the NFL.
 

·
Beware the Attack Basset
Joined
·
23,871 Posts
Directv won’t allow the NFL to be dropped from their platform.
Unless DIRECTV is the successful bidder for exclusive rights, it isn't up to them who gets to carry NFLST.
No cable company is going to get an exclusive deal since they don’t cover the entire country. It would have to be Comcast/spectrum/Cox and a few others who went in it together.
There are a few cable companies that have a much wider reach than DIRECTV and joint ventures have been entered into before.
You really need another satellite provider, which is Dish, but Dish will never agree to pay a flat rate.
The current exclusive deal is flat rate and the new deal may be as well but that doesn't mean that the successful bidder must resell the product at flat rate pricing. I'd expect that going direct to the rights holder via streaming would be an option.
 

·
Icon
Joined
·
3,065 Posts
A cable co with a bigger footprint than D* ??

Xfinity is the largest and they not larger than D* as far as footprint. They probably have more subs now due to the massive coord cuts...

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

·
Beware the Attack Basset
Joined
·
23,871 Posts
A cable co with a bigger footprint than D* ??
The issue isn't geographical footprint because not everyone inside the service area can get DBS service. This issue is how many subscribers each company can reach.

Doing away with NFLST exclusivity certainly isn't going to boost DIRECTV's DBS subscriber numbers. Having alternatives is likely to cause some significant hurt.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,938 Posts
We can approach this from a perspective. Instead of rehashing whether or not DIRECTV will have NFL Sunday Ticket we are discussing what will happen if they don't.

I believe most people will make the decision when they find out where Sunday Ticket goes. Best case would be if multiple carriers offered the package including DIRECTV - then one would just decide if the rest of DIRECTV is worth the remaining cost. If DIRECTV doesn't carry the package there will be some people who follow the package.
Let's imagine that DTV loses NFLST completely (at least for residential viewers). If that happens, I think it will almost certainly be because it becomes exclusively available as an add-on to one particular streaming provider, whether that's ESPN+ or Prime Video or Apple TV+. I highly, highly doubt that NFLST will end up striking another exclusive deal as an add-on to some MVPD other than DTV (e.g. Comcast, Charter, YouTube TV, etc.).

What I'm getting at is that I don't think anyone will find themselves forced to leave DTV to continue getting NFLST. As long as they have broadband service, they can just download the appropriate app and subscribe to stream NFLST. It's not like they'll have to opt to go with a different cable/pay TV service in lieu of DTV.

But OTOH, what would happen is that a not-insignificant number of NFLST-loving DTV subs will find that they have options. They're no longer forced to keep that satellite dish on the roof. How many DTV sat customers do we think exist now? Probably something like 12-13 million. (As of 6/30/21, AT&T had 15.4 million customers between satellite, Uverse TV and what is now called DTV Stream.) I'd bet there's at least 500k folks who stick with DTV only so they can continue getting NFLST (many of them at no additional cost beyond what they pay for their base DTV package). Once DTV dumps NFLST, they'll dump DTV and finally make the switch to the cheaper YouTube TV or DTV Stream for their cable TV service. Or they'll ditch cable TV completely and go with a combination of streaming apps and OTA antenna. Either way, they'll get NFLST from whichever streaming service carries it and be done with satellite TV.

So if DTV loses NFLST -- or even if it just is no longer the exclusive residential provider for the service -- I think we'll see a larger than usual decline in DTV subscribers in 2023.
 

·
Icon
Joined
·
3,065 Posts
Not sure if this is the correct thread but ...

Let's say it goes to a streaming thing ... those streaming things have HUGE delays even compared to D*

Imaging now most states have sports betting and issues that may cause.

Person places a bet but his streaming TV thing.. is 90 seconds behind causing chaos ..

Or as happens now folks get fantasy alerts before they see it on the streaming tv..

Also imagine the cost its bad enough we gotta pay a la carte for like , espn +, peacock, Paramount plus etc . What will NFL ST be $600 or something insane . On top of the cost of espn/disney or what ever streaming thing ...


I'm venting sorry if I dont make sense lol


Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
803 Posts
ESPN+ is getting very close to some of the feeds DirecTV had on MLS Direct Kick this last season... by roughly 1-2 seconds difference. So yes streaming is improving slowly over time in regards to lagging behind traditional live TV.
 

·
Beware the Attack Basset
Joined
·
23,871 Posts
Imaging now most states have sports betting and issues that may cause.
Is there some form of gambling that has a "post time" within 90 seconds of the start of an event?
Or as happens now folks get fantasy alerts before they see it on the streaming tv.
Those can surely be turned off for the duration of the event.
 

·
Icon
Joined
·
3,065 Posts
I remember someone was saying during the game some bets or something changed in the middle of the game .

I forgot what its called but something like it a player does X You win... parlay ??

And it can change


Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

·
Beware the Attack Basset
Joined
·
23,871 Posts
What I'm getting at is that I don't think anyone will find themselves forced to leave DTV to continue getting NFLST.
This is certainly true, but how many are maintaining their DIRECTV subscriptions simply because it is the only path to having the option of NFLST in their home? The monthly bill for a DIRECTV package is relativey big one in this market that is becoming less and less interested in linear TV options (and not just because the programming stinks on ice).
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
53,120 Posts
So if DTV loses NFLST -- or even if it just is no longer the exclusive residential provider for the service -- I think we'll see a larger than usual decline in DTV subscribers in 2023.
I have no doubt there will be a decline, a bump down of some size due to customers having options or DIRECTV not being that option. But I do doubt that we will see it. Apparently owners TPG and AT&T feel they no longer need to tell investors and the public how many subscribers they have left.

Once DIRECTV takes the hit for losing the NFLST exclusive I expect they will get back to their normal unpublished level of decline. But I believe they have done the math. They are not getting $1.5 billion in value from having NFL Sunday Ticket as an exclusive and the NFL doesn't want to sell an exclusive for less.
 
21 - 40 of 67 Posts
Top