Beware the Attack Basset
Given the realization that Ka turned out to be a bit of a pain and that DISH has two constellations and smaller dishes, I'd expect things to go to transition slowly to the DISH satellites and DISH STBs.But there may be the odd installation here or there where the installer can't get good line of sight to the DTV sats but they can with the DISH sats, so in those cases they'll go with a traditional DISH installation.
Given that the installed base of DIRECTV STBs are already rather dated (The HS17 is near to celebrating its fifth birthday) and there is NOTHING on the horizon, I'd expect that much of the installed base is already at the cliff.
The Hopper Plus could represent a big boon to transitioning both services to streaming and it would probably add even more to the DIRECTV experience than it does to the DISH experience.
The real concern is probably what will happen with sports programming.
TPG isn't in the business of running companies. They're in the business of trading companies. Anyone who thought that they were into DIRECTV for the long haul is deluding themselves. Most of the coverage before the deal was careful to point out that the goal was to make DIRECTV a takeover target. DISH surely has the best synergies and they are on the same trajectory in terms of where the future lies.