[harsh]

It really isn't a battle to the death.

Methinks you've made underestimated the cult-like brand loyalty. Then again, what people say they actually do isn't particularly equal. If it were, millions of DIRECTV would have cancelled the instant that the AT&T takeover was consummated.

Having one company manage the whole wad would axe a lot of the most expensive employees. That's a synergy. Being able to consolidate billing, support and installation functions are all synergies that may not lead to halving the workforce but they will likely significantly reduce the costs. Over time the synergies and advertising efforts could be more finely tuned to address a smaller set of competitors.

 

[James Long]

Having one company manage the whole wad would axe a lot of the most expensive employees. That's a synergy.

Firing upper management?

Being able to consolidate billing, support and installation functions are all synergies that may not lead to halving the workforce but they will likely significantly reduce the costs.

If it takes X number of people to support DISH and Y number of people to support DIRECTV why would it take less than X+Y people to support a merged company? Cross training the employees doesn't change the workload. That sort of "synergy" sounds like poor management that has led to companies failing.

Over time the synergies and advertising efforts could be more finely tuned to address a smaller set of competitors.

Merging DISH and DIRECTV would eliminate one competitor. A reduction of one competitor. They don't seem to be focused on fighting each other now. DIRECTV has a web page that says they are better than DISH because of NFL Sunday Ticket. In a year they will have to fall back on other claims.

 

[harsh]

Firing upper management?

Either that or demote them if they don't leave on their own. You can't afford keep them all out of charity.

If it takes X number of people to support DISH and Y number of people to support DIRECTV why would it take less than X+Y people to support a merged company?

Because there is a lot of overlap that wouldn't need to be there. It doesn't take two CEOs (or CFOs, CTOs, COOs and various vice presidents) to oversee a company that would be about the same size as DIRECTV once was at its peak with only one of each. That's a few million dollars right there.

Cross training the employees doesn't change the workload.

There are many tasks that are identical between companies and there's no training needed. Accounting and advertising typically don't involve skills that aren't unique to any business. In the modern age of computer billing, Accounting in particular scales quite nicely. Every little bit helps.

There are likely to be significant gains (especially in customer satisfaction) to be had from DIRECTV no longer subcontracting their customer-facing services from AT&T.

Finally, if subcontracting makes sense, it is perhaps a better value to shop a single large account than two small ones.

 

[James Long]

You are misreading my post. Each line of my reply was specific to the text quoted above it. You spoke of support people, I replied and now you are twisting it and making a comment about getting rid of C suite people. Please be more careful in your reading. Your whole push seems to be aimed at getting rid of upper level employees. There are only so many C suite and upper level people that can be shed. The support people I was talking about (X and Y) are needed regardless of the ownership. Unless your goal is to run BOTH companies into the toilet.

 

[wmb]

The support people I was talking about (X and Y) are needed regardless of the ownership.

One thought I had was that both DirecTV and Dish could form a joint venture to do the space operations support side of things. A Satellite fleet may need n customers to be financially viable, but a joint back end could support X + Y > n. The key would be that the joint venture’s customers (Dish + DirecTV + others???) all adopt the same transponder tech.

The fun part about this has been noted above… limited life of current satellite fleets, need to consolidate slots/bands. The other side is the lead time on contract/design/build/launch a satellite. This is 5 years + timeline. Once this is decided, a replacement common fleet could be deployed, along with receivers using these joint venture fleets by the time the each company’s current satellite fleet go EOL.

Dish, DirecTV , others(?) could then each have their own customer service, channel packages, receivers, etc using the joint venture (ultimately spun off) satellite/uplink infrastructure.

Granted, this is something that gets developed over the next few years, but we’re on the clock now for it to happen in time.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[P Smith]

although doing so would be optimal versus the current situation.

I hope FCC and FTC would be on our side - customers - and will kill another monopoly what would be happy to milk more money from us !
You're posing here as a pure protagonist for big company; perhaps being a wealthy shareholder?

 

[NYDutch]

I hope FCC would be on our side - customers - and will kill another monopoly what would be happy to milk more money from us !
You're posing here as a pure protagonist for big company; perhaps being a wealthy shareholder?

Between cable expansion and the variety of streaming choices available now, a Dish/DTV merger would still need to stay competitive on pricing to retain subscribers. The relatively few people without broadband Internet access wouldn't make for much of a monopoly.

 

[harsh]

I hope FCC would be on our side - customers - and will kill another monopoly what would be happy to milk more money from us !

While the FCC has a guideline to be anti-monopoly, that responsibility comes down to the FTC. The FCC and their apparent lack of motivation is how we ended up with giants like Sinclair that have figured out how to game the system and end up operating stations that aren't theirs on paper.

 

[NashGuy]

I hope FCC and FTC would be on our side - customers - and will kill another monopoly what would be happy to milk more money from us !
You're posing here as a pure protagonist for big company; perhaps being a wealthy shareholder?

Yes, in writing about why the two might merge, I've done so from the perspective of the companies themselves/their owners. Whether I personally want to see them merge, or whether such a merger would be good for consumers, are separate questions. Personally, I guess I don't really care as I don't subscribe to any of their TV services, nor am I a shareholder of either AT&T or DISH.

I agree that the government should be more aggressive in putting a stop to big mergers that harm competition than has been the case in recent years. If these two were to announce a merger this year, I'm not sure whether I think the DOJ ought to stop it or simply impose some kind of price control on them as a condition of the merger to make sure that they don't try to price gouge rural dwellers who have no other option besides satellite for pay TV. Hopefully the merger wouldn't be allowed to sail through without any conditions imposed to protect consumers.

 

[NashGuy]

One thought I had was that both DirecTV and Dish could form a joint venture to do the space operations support side of things. A Satellite fleet may need n customers to be financially viable, but a joint back end could support X + Y > n. The key would be that the joint venture’s customers (Dish + DirecTV + others???) all adopt the same transponder tech.

The fun part about this has been noted above… limited life of current satellite fleets, need to consolidate slots/bands. The other side is the lead time on contract/design/build/launch a satellite. This is 5 years + timeline. Once this is decided, a replacement common fleet could be deployed, along with receivers using these joint venture fleets by the time the each company’s current satellite fleet go EOL.

Dish, DirecTV , others(?) could then each have their own customer service, channel packages, receivers, etc using the joint venture (ultimately spun off) satellite/uplink infrastructure.

Granted, this is something that gets developed over the next few years, but we’re on the clock now for it to happen in time.

That's an interesting thought experiment but I don't think either AT&T or DISH sees enough life/profitability left in DBS pay TV service over the coming years to justify the expense of any further satellite launches. AT&T definitely declared that the T16 would be the last-ever satellite launched for DTV back in 2019. As far as I know, DISH hasn't specifically ruled out the possibility of launching additional sats but my guess is that they wouldn't as it's just cost-prohibitive given the dwindling market. Makes much more sense to just merge with DTV and use their sats, which should last into the early 2030s, i.e. long enough until we get to the point where so much of their user base has migrated to their own or competing internet-delivered services that it's uneconomic to continue operating even a single DBS service any more.

Here's a plausible hypothetical scenario I see playing out. All the dates I use are rough guesses.

2022: AT&T, DISH and TPG announce an agreement to spin off their pay TV businesses into a new privately held joint venture company.

2023: After government approval, the new JV launches and announces that DISH will be the sole satellite TV brand still actively marketed and taking new customers. New DISH customers will have rooftop dishes installed to aim and use the DTV satellite fleet. Existing DTV customers will see their service rebranded to "DIRECTV by DISH" but be grandfathered into their existing channel packages and allowed to keep their existing equipment. All of the channels under contract to be carried by either the DISH brand or the old DTV brand will be transmitted through the DTV satellite fleet so they can serve customers under both brands.

2025: As the original fleet of aging DISH satellites face extinction, DISH contacts all of their legacy customers who had been installed before the 2023 merger and are therefore still receiving signals from the old DISH sats. Those customers are notified that they must either opt into receiving all of their channels via a broadband connection to their Hopper and Joey receivers (making their rooftop dish unnecessary) or they must schedule to have a DISH installer come out and install a new dish aimed at the DTV satellite fleet. There would be some incentive to choose the broadband option, such as a gift card and/or an installation charge or new contract commitment if choosing a new dish installation.

At this time (if not earlier), we'll see DISH also offer the broadband delivery option for all their new and existing customers. Customers will use the same DISH Hopper/Joey hardware and enjoy the same user experience whether the service is delivered by satellite or broadband (although without rain fade in the case of the latter). The goal over the course of this decade will be to get as many of their TV subscribers as possible transitioned away from satellite delivery over to some form of streaming pay TV subscription service so that the business will be positioned to survive as long as "cable TV" continues to exist.

 

[DefinitelyIan]

I'd bet that it has been more successful than you think. There are more than a few dyed-in-the-wool DIRECTV DBS subs who have switched since the product was rebranded.

I actually made the jump from DTV satellite to Stream recently. Stream offers their custom Android TV box that has a number pad remote with all the functions of a regular DTV satellite remote. I've actually found their stream box to be faster and more responsive to actions like pulling up the DVR list than my HR54 and C61 was. Was very pleasantly surprised on the speed and functionality. The only thing I miss from satellite are the secondary HBO and Starz channels.

 

[harsh]

That's an interesting thought experiment but I don't think either AT&T or DISH sees enough life/profitability left in DBS pay TV service over the coming years to justify the expense of any further satellite launches.

For that reason alone, it seems pointless to theorize about concentrating the customer bases on either satellite fleet. I think it is almost certain that both fleets will outlast their respective offerings.

 

[James Long]

Yes, in writing about why the two might merge, I've done so from the perspective of the companies themselves/their owners.

Me too.

Owners AT&T and TPG want DIRECTV off of their books. AT&T doesn't seem to mind reporting the financials of their investment in DIRECTV. They are able to downplay the value of the investment as it no longer has a major impact on their overall business. TPG is the reason this thread exists. They want out. DISH ... the "inevitable" comment was in the past and does not relate to the current "offer".

I believe AT&T and TPG are going to need to suffer through another year and show that DIRECTV is still worth investing in. Once the NFL Sunday Ticket issue is resolved (exclusive to another carrier or available to all willing MVPD/vMVPDs ?) we will have a better idea of the future. Can DIRECTV survive without their cornerstone NFL exclusive? We are going to find out.

We have wasted a lot of time and angst on a rumor. As I said before - DISH doesn't need the merger. It isn't going to happen.

 

[codespy]

.....Can DIRECTV survive without their cornerstone NFL exclusive? We are going to find out......

I'm not too worried about that. After all, Dish has all these years without ST.

 

[NashGuy]

As I said before - DISH doesn't need the merger. It isn't going to happen.

From all the way back in August 2021:

Ergen: DirecTV/DISH merger “inevitable”

Charlie Ergen, speaking to analysts on the DISH Network post-results analysts call, again touched on the prospects for a merger between DirecTV and Ergen’s DI

advanced-television.com

 

[NashGuy]

For that reason alone, it seems pointless to theorize about concentrating the customer bases on either satellite fleet. I think it is almost certain that both fleets will outlast their respective offerings.

Nope. As I've posted before, every last one of DISH's satellites will have died by some point in 2026 unless they're able to outlive their expected 15-year lifespan (which I admit is possible). DISH will still have enough customers and strong enough financials to be a viable business past 2026, assuming they have any working satellites.

 

[harsh]

As I've posted before, every last one of DISH's satellites will have died by some point in 2026 unless they're able to outlive their expected 15-year lifespan (which I admit is possible).

You perhaps missed where slice1900 noted that DIRECTV 8 is still up there bouncing CONUS Ku and it is almost 17 years old with enough fuel to last a long time.

Since the tin whisker problems of days gone past and a plethora of issues with DIRECTV 10, satellite lifespan is more a depreciation schedule than an expiration date.

DISH has been pretty fortunate thus far with their satellites. Their last big event was perhaps in 2008 when Echostar 5 at 129W was "wobbing" until it could be replaced by Ciel 2.

 

[WestDC]

Never going to happen --NO way ever

 

[James Long]

From all the way back in August 2021:

Ergen: DirecTV/DISH merger “inevitable”

Charlie Ergen, speaking to analysts on the DISH Network post-results analysts call, again touched on the prospects for a merger between DirecTV and Ergen’s DI

advanced-television.com

Yep. Comments made months before the rumor that started this thread. Not related to the proposals written in this thread. YOU have said more in favor of a merger than Mr Ergen!

Structured right I am sure that Charlie Ergen and DISH would be willing to take over DIRECTV. Anything else, "meh".

As I've posted before, every last one of DISH's satellites will have died by some point in 2026 unless they're able to outlive their expected 15-year lifespan (which I admit is possible).

More than possible. Some of their satellites have passed the 15 year mark. You seem to be more worried about this than DISH!

 

[NashGuy]

Yep. Comments made months before the rumor that started this thread. Not related to the proposals written in this thread. YOU have said more in favor of a merger than Mr Ergen!

Yes, I'm sure the merger discussions he's reportedly had in Dec/Jan with DTV have ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with his thoughts on the matter which he publicly shared all the way back in August. LOL. As he stated then, "it's a timing issue more than anything else". It'll happen when they think the feds will allow it. And of course, Ergen will hold out and negotiate to get what he believes are the best possible terms. But the longer he waits, the greater the pressure will be to do it.