[James Long]

Yea, I smell a rat.

 

[James Long]

What speed internet do you have for that cheap a price? Do you have a data cap?

If you are trying to pad the price of streaming by adding the cost of Internet please limit the padding to the incremental cost. How much more would one pay for Internet if they added streaming.

In my case I would not need to pay a penny more for Internet. I'd continue with my same plan whether or not I streamed.

 

[James Long]

So the "10M" satellite subs are only here for Sunday Ticket? I know of at least one that isn't.

The last estimate was that 2 million DIRECTV subscribers paid for Sunday Ticket. It was an interesting estimate since it was based on a survey where many subscribers didn't know if they got Sunday Ticket. DIRECTV has given it free to new subscribers for many years and for this final season has been handing it out for free to existing subscribers at an apparently increasing rate. (DIRECTV is not paying for ST this year so they are not losing money when giving it away for free. AT&T agreed to cover the $1.5 billion cost for ST this year.)

I doubt DIRECTV will instantly lose 2 million more subscribers than their normal losses. But with the lack of actual reported numbers (everything since July 2021 has been estimates) we can only guess what is normal. AT&T|DIRECTV lost just over 3 million subscribers in the last four quarters they reported. That includes streaming subscriber losses (since AT&T|DIRECTV stopped reporting satellite separately at the end of 2018).

The numbers have been broken down in other threads and if the current third party estimates are correct the bleeding has slowed down in the year following TPGs purchase of control but TPG has already expressed an interest to sell DIRECTV (since January) so their long term plans for DIRECTV is to not be part of the ownership or control.

(TLDR: TPG isn't planning new satellites either.)

 

[James Long]

Any merger would likely be more about acquiring DIRECTV's remaining customers rather sustaining the DIRECTV brand or its current operations.

With the customer agreements offered by streaming companies (no commitment, cancel any time) I don't know how one company buys another company's customers. Customers under contract are an asset. Customers not under contract can be won or lost via competition.

Whomever purchases DIRECTV would get the other assets of DIRECTV (including satellite customers under contract and more importantly contracts with content providers for content being served to DIRECTV satellite and stream subscribers). The purchaser would be buying the OPPORTUNITY to operate DIRECTV in a way that is more viable than the current owners/operators. Can anyone do a better job of running DIRECTV than TPG?

Two years ago the question was "can anyone do a better job of running AT&T|DIRECTV than AT&T"? That question was answered in January 2021 when TPG offered to pay billions of dollars for the opportunity to try. The deal closed in July 2021 and six months later TPG was looking to sell. At it's heart TPG is an investment group ... buy something and then sell it at a profit. I'm not sure that is going to work with their purchase of DIRECTV.

 

[James Long]

While this is true for many, a lot of the remaining customers will be there because there isn't any competition for their pay TV fix.

On the satellite side there is DISH Network. They only lost 800k net satellite subscribers in the past year (still reporting separately) and made $3 billion profit with satellite and streaming so they should be around for a while.

Your argument certainly assumes that.

You can't buy liquid in a sieve. That is the best description I have for no commitment customers. If someone sells you a sieve full of liquid you are buying a wet sieve. The other assets of DIRECTV have value.

Financially, I believe DIRECTV (even under TPG) is doing fine. A couple billion dollars a year in profit isn't bad. If it were my company I'd settle for a couple billion a year in profit. In my opinion TPG should milk the cash cow for as long as they can. In TPG's opinion? Apparently they want to sell the cow while it still has milk for the next owner.

 

[James Long]

... have first run shows as does CNN (non news).

I liked the "CNN Presents" content but missed a lot of it when I stopped watching all cable news channels a few years ago. (I want news, not loudly presented political opinions.) I was able to catch up on some of the CNN Presents content via HBO Max - streaming.

Sunday Ticket has always been a big money loser for DirecTV. If James' "2M people pay for it" is accurate, there are millions more getting it for free. There's also talk of DirecTV partnering with whomever gets it to keep it in bars.

I would not call it a money loser. Perhaps as a line item the last couple of years have been rough (generally due to the LOSS of commercial subscriptions - bars closed or operating at lower capacity due to COVID don't need or perhaps cannot afford the higher rate ST programming).

We don't have a parallel universe that we can check to see what DIRECTV's overall profits would have been without Sunday Ticket. Nor do we have reporting of how profitable Sunday Ticket was in each previous year as a line item. The presence of Sunday Ticket and the ability to give the service to new customers for free (a $300+ value) made it worth the cost for many years. Somehow even in recent years (pandemic years) where it is reported that they lost "tens of millions" of dollars on Sunday Ticket DIRECTV still managed to rake in billions of dollars in profit.

It was worth DIRECTV's investment for at least the first 25 years they had Sunday Ticket and was still of value the last two. If they felt that it was not worth the investment they could have bailed two years ago. AT&T|DIRECTV decided to keep the service.

 

[James Long]

The other assets of DIRECTV have value.

Maybe to Shaw Direct (who is in the process of losing one of their two satellites) but Ka isn't all that popular around the world for DTH TV.

DISH would take the licenses for 110 and 119 (24 transponders) and any Ku satellites they can move. The footprint of US satellites would be of limited value to Shaw and the licenses would be of no value. The programming contracts would be of no value to Shaw.

There is an opportunity for a new to satellite buyer to step in. Unlikely, but there is always a chance. Or someone who sees the programming contracts DIRECTV has signed as an asset. As noted, DIRECTV service is not a failure.

The billions in profit aren't sustainable without the AT&T infusions ...

What infusions? AT&T has obligated the parent company to pay for losses on Sunday Ticket until the end of the current contract ... that's it. If TPG's DIRECTV somehow gets a contract to carry Sunday Ticket in the future AT&T does not have to cover that loss. How many billions of dollars are you alleging AT&T is infusing?

Has Dish having streaming apps brought in any customers? How many?

Thanks to SlingTV they have 2.4 million more subscribers than they would if they only had satellite. I don't believe the DISH Anywhere app is a major influence on keeping satellite subscribers. It is too limited.

 

[James Long]

I was referring to having streaming apps on the Hopper itself.

The Hopper 3 has the most apps ... but the new Hopper Plus and and Android enabled Joeys bring other streaming apps into the picture.

Seems like any attempt to merge hardware / satellites / dishes / CSRs / techs / etc. wouldn't be too economically viable. How long has AT&T been trying to merge billing? As I mentioned above, my billing was on ATT.com for a while, but recently reverted back to DirecTV.com, so I suspect that's AT&T wanting to get out of the rest of their ill fated purchase.

As many have noted, AT&T sucks. If DISH ends up owning DIRECTV perhaps they will suck less.

How long AT&T attempted to move satellite subscribers over to their billing system is a a good question. Why they bothered is a bigger question. I can see the value of being on "one system" when offering bundled services (such as cell phones and Internet with AT&T TV or DIRECTV satellite) but they didn't seem to be in a hurry to complete that migration - then they moved forward quickly at about the same time as deciding to split off DIRECTV. They really AT&T'd up the transition.

As noted in the several other threads on the topic I do not expect a merger between the services if DISH ends up with DIRECTV. It would be an expensive and complicated mess. But 110 and 119 could become DISH locations without major changes (DISH's satellites were designed to cover DIRECTV's licenses and their dishes can receive all transponders). Between the two current operations they are making $5 billion per year in profit so there is no pressure to create an instant cost savings lest one system or the other would fail.

In my opinion DISH doesn't need to own DIRECTV ... but since the owner of DISH keeps saying that a merger is inevitable I won't rule one out. Even though I believe DISH would be better off waiting for DIRECTV to fail and buying what's left than to attempt a merger now (or within the next two years). My opinion, as stated.

 

[James Long]

Ergen hinting in the Q3 earnings + my billing reverting to directv.com recently + TPG saying they want out? Mighty suspicious coincidences there .

Ergen has been predicting a merger for the past couple of years. The more recent statements seem to be more "now or never" ... I'd like to know whether or not he believes the moment has passed but I have already expressed my opinion that he should not attempt such a merger.

Your billing change is irrelevantly timed. DIRECTV has been moving people off of the AT&T system for a year. It was your turn.

TPG wanting out? They stated that in January and there are a few people who believe that they only bought DIRECTV to allow AT&T to remove DIRECTV from their books as they turned their focus back to communications and away from TV. As a owned subsidiary they do not need to report all of the embarrasing performance details such as decreasing subscriber counts.

Merging billing + csrs + techs would be a good idea to save some money without being too expensive. AT&T just messed it up.

I wonder if it would help with retention? There are some people who swap services every two years. Instead of switching satellite providers would they stay or go away?

 

[James Long]

When did my ex-boss from The Abusers get a job at AT&T lol? I assumed he was the only guy who would spend millions of dollars and then at the 98% throw it all out. Guess not.

I don't know how far AT&T got on the DIRECTV to AT&T conversion but I would not expect it to be anywhere near 98%. I believe most of the conversions were through attrition. Some customers left, other customers came. New customers got AT&T billing.