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AllStar
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Please list the following:
HR20's date of manufacture.
HR20's date of install
Source of HR20 eg BestBuy or DirecTV
Made in Mexico Yes / No

This information will help to show if HR20's production is continuous and the time to market from manufacture

I suspect HR20 shortages are caused by components shortages. MPEG4 components have a long lead time. If this is correct then there may be none manufactured for several more weeks.

The fastest install date I have seen is 14 days after manufacture.
 

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DOM: 10/3
DOI: 10/20
Source: DirecTV
Made in MEX: Yes
 

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I used to be a rocket scientist
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12,182 Posts
DOM: 9/20
DOI: 10/21
Source: DirecTV
Made in Mexico: Don't know - forgot to look when it was installed
 

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I used to be a rocket scientist
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darrin1471 said:
I suspect HR20 shortages are caused by components shortages. MPEG4 components have a long lead time. If this is correct then there may be none manufactured for several more weeks.
That doesn't square with what Earl has said, nor with the fact that some folks (not many, but some) who are wait-listed are getting install dates in early-mid November, and with the fact that a few existing HR20 customers are still receiving replacements for failed units. It's MUCH more likely that they are stockpiling production and releasing a trickle at a time for replacements and to cover those who've had very long wait times so far, and that the floodgates will open in a couple more weeks with thousands of units installed in a very short time.
 

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Godfather
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LameLefty said:
That doesn't square with what Earl has said, nor with the fact that some folks (not many, but some) who are wait-listed are getting install dates in early-mid November, and with the fact that a few existing HR20 customers are still receiving replacements for failed units. It's MUCH more likely that they are stockpiling production and releasing a trickle at a time for replacements and to cover those who've had very long wait times so far, and that the floodgates will open in a couple more weeks with thousands of units installed in a very short time.
I'm in agreement with this assessment. We've had 2 replacements sent out. Where will the 2 returns go? New installs?? or replacements again?

Our last HR20 we've received:
Manuf: 9-21
Install: (by me): 9-28
Made in Mexico

By the way, the second replacement I had sent out took 10 days to get here, not in transit, (overnight with Fed. EX.), but from the time of order. My guess why, lack of units for replacement.
 

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AllStar
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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
LameLefty said:
That doesn't square with what Earl has said, nor with the fact that some folks (not many, but some) who are wait-listed are getting install dates in early-mid November, and with the fact that a few existing HR20 customers are still receiving replacements for failed units. It's MUCH more likely that they are stockpiling production and releasing a trickle at a time for replacements and to cover those who've had very long wait times so far, and that the floodgates will open in a couple more weeks with thousands of units installed in a very short time.
Quotes from Pace the manufacture of the HR20

"Orders placed by Pace's payTV customers are typically large one-off orders for delivery over a number of months with supplemental orders for additional volumes
The Group works on long lead times (e.g. four months or more) for component supply and manufacture."
Based on this information, the DirecTV order may have been as follows:
100k ordered for month one and 50k ordered for the following 5 months. With this hypothetical order, Pace would order 200k components for month 1 and 50k components for the following three months. If at the end of month one DirecTV take all that Pace can produce and increase monthly orders to 100k per month, then Pace would order 400k components for month 5 (due to the 4 month lead time) and 100k of components for subsequent months. This scenario would result in deliveries of
Month 1 100k
Month 2 150k
Month 3 & 4 50k per month
Month 5 400k
Month 6 to 9 100k per month
With month one being August, shortages would be expected in October and November, with volume being available again in December.

Posting details of manufacturing dates will show any gaps in manufacture and has shown that the time from manufacture to installation could be less than 14 days.
 

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Current HR20's at my home:
Owned HR20 MFR Date: 08/29/2006 Installed: 9/15/[email protected] by DirecTV:)
Leased HR20 MFR Date: 10/08/2006 Installed: 10/27/[email protected] by DirecTV:)

2 HR20 returned to DirecTV via FedEx due to tuner problems:
1st returned unit MFR Date: 8/29/2006 Installed: 9/15/[email protected] by DirecTV:eek2:
2nd returned unit MFR date: 9/19/2006 Installed: 10/10/2006 by self:eek2:

All made in Mexico
 

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614 Posts
darrin1471 said:
Quotes from Pace the manufacture of the HR20

"Orders placed by Pace's pay TV customers are typically large one-off orders for delivery over a number of months with supplemental orders for additional volumes
The Group works on long lead times (e.g. four months or more) for component supply and manufacture."
Based on this information, the DirecTV order may have been as follows:
100k ordered for month one and 50k ordered for the following 5 months. With this hypothetical order, Pace would order 200k components for month 1 and 50k components for the following three months. If at the end of month one DirecTV take all that Pace can produce and increase monthly orders to 100k per month, then Pace would order 400k components for month 5 (due to the 4 month lead time) and 100k of components for subsequent months. This scenario would result in deliveries of
Month 1 100k
Month 2 150k
Month 3 & 4 50k per month
Month 5 400k
Month 6 to 9 100k per month
With month one being August, shortages would be expected in October and November, with volume being available again in December.

Posting details of manufacturing dates will show any gaps in manufacture and has shown that the time from manufacture to installation could be less than 14 days.
Assuming all 600,000 HD customers request the new HR20, and each get 2 units, then Pace will need to have 1,200,000 units ready. Based on the formula by Darrin above, DirecTV should have enough available in less than a year. Of course if each of the 600,000 HD customers request 3 units each, then 1,800,000 units will need to be manufactured to keep up with demand.
 

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Godfather/Supporter
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My HR20 was made on 10/10 and installed on 10/27
Made by DirectTV
 

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AllStar
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61 Posts
Discussion Starter · #16 ·
cybrsurfer said:
Assuming all 600,000 HD customers request the new HR20, and each get 2 units, then Pace will need to have 1,200,000 units ready. Based on the formula by Darrin above, DirecTV should have enough available in less than a year. Of course if each of the 600,000 HD customers request 3 units each, then 1,800,000 units will need to be manufactured to keep up with demand.
The figures were just an example to explain the current shortages in the HR20. Pace use Solectron plants for the manufacture of the HR20 and Pace report having plenty of available capacity. If DirecTV wanted a million or more HR20's over the next 6 months, I am sure they could be made subject to component availability. DirecTV predict they will have 18m customers and almost 50m set top boxes in use by 2008 with 5m households having HD or HD/DVR. So in two years time there may be up to 10m HR20's in circulation made by Pace and no doubt Thomson at a later date.
10m is probably twice the likely figure as I have not taken into account the existing HR10 or H20 or the HR20's capability to stream multiroom to standard set top boxes.
 

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Hall Of Fame
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"10m is probably twice the likely figure as I have not taken into account the existing HR10 or H20 or the HR20’s capability to stream multiroom to standard set top boxes."

Don't take the streaming feature into account, because it can't do it--now, anyway.
 
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