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Beware the Attack Basset
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cool and if DTV sat looses NFL ST Stream will be perfect in my new house'
DIRECTV chose to not be the exclusive carrier. They may be able to work out a deal with the new exclusive carrier but it doesn't seem all that worth the effort for most.
 

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Not to mention that DISH makes far too much money off of DISH TV and Charles Ergen has no intention to sell his company. The company is publicly traded, but he still owns the vast majority of the shares especially when it comes to voting stock. DISH made $785 million dollars from DISH TV last quarter (satellite and streaming) but their overall profit was $523 million. Sell to some company that would aggregate DISH TV and DIRECTV? Naw.

DISH buying DIRECTV to fulfill the merger prophecy? There is no need. DISH doesn't need the additional debt and as just noted, they are doing fine. DISH doesn't need to bail out DIRECTV to survive. They can buy what is left of the company eventually but there is no pressure.

It isn't as though Directv is losing money. They were still making almost $1 billion a quarter in free cash flow when Directv spun them off and their results were no longer publicly reported, so Directv doesn't need a "bail out" from Ergen or anyone else.

It was only AT&T's stupidity in overpaying Directv shareholders (who were the only real winners) that caused them to lose a ton of money on their investment, but that wasn't because the business collapsed. Directv is doing just fine even if it isn't doing as well today as it was at the time AT&T bought them. How much AT&T mismanagement had to do with that versus changes like cord cutting that affected all linear TV providers is anybody's guess.

It isn't clear how low subscriber totals have to get before a satellite TV provider is no longer profitable, but a lot of operating costs like call centers and installers can be reduced as the customer base reduces so they can lose a lot more customers before they get into the red. They might still be OK even at 2 or 3 million subscribers. Perhaps less for Directv than Dish, since they have all the bar/restaurant accounts assuming they can sublicense NFLST, they have only one satellite fleet to maintain rather than two, and all the satellites they need through 2030 or longer are already in place which is not the case for Dish.
 

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DIRECTV chose to not be the exclusive carrier. They may be able to work out a deal with the new exclusive carrier but it doesn't seem all that worth the effort for most.
They didn't "choose" so much as market changes (i.e. cord cutting and subscriber losses) meant it would not be worth spending what the NFL wanted for a renewal.

I think the Thursday night thing demonstrates their desire and ability to work out a deal for NFLST for commercial accounts.

Theoretically it might make sense for both parties to work out a deal where Directv could make NFLST available to "legacy" residential customers (i.e. existing Directv customers who subscribed to NFLST in the past) but not new subscribers. That would help Directv stem subscriber losses and allow the new NFLST rights owner to monetize those customers who can't/won't stream it. But that doesn't mean it will happen, or that Directv will even ask for it.
 

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Beware the Attack Basset
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I think the Thursday night thing demonstrates their desire and ability to work out a deal for NFLST for commercial accounts.
The only indication that DIRECTV is trying to work a deal is the comment from Roger Goodell. I see no "demonstration" (though that doesn't mean that something isn't in the works).
 

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Beware the Attack Basset
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They were still making almost $1 billion a quarter in free cash flow when Directv spun them off and their results were no longer publicly reported, so Directv doesn't need a "bail out" from Ergen or anyone else.
Let's not forget that DIRECTV came with several billion in debt. It may take quite a few quarters to work that debt off.
 

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It isn't as though Directv is losing money.
DISH's published figures give people hope that DIRECTV is still profitable.

They might still be OK even at 2 or 3 million subscribers. Perhaps less for Directv than Dish, since they have all the bar/restaurant accounts assuming they can sublicense NFLST, they have only one satellite fleet to maintain rather than two, and all the satellites they need through 2030 or longer are already in place which is not the case for Dish.
Commercial subscriptions are included in the subscriber counts ... not as a direct number but as an equivalent number of residential subscribers. DISH has one asset that DIRECTV has never been able to maintain. A dedicated owner who isn't looking to flip the company and monetize assets. TPG will eventually bail out of their investment in DIRECTV ... it may not be to DISH but they will sell. Because that is what they do.
 

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Beware the Attack Basset
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TPG will eventually bail out of their investment in DIRECTV ... it may not be to DISH but they will sell.
The question being what it is that DIRECTV will have left to sell. Customers in the pay TV marketplace are significantly less sticky than they used to be.
 

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DISH's published figures give people hope that DIRECTV is still profitable.

No, AT&T's published figures from the last time they did prior to the sale give people CERTAINTY that Directv is still profitable. You don't think losing a few million subscribers will cause them to go from making $4 billion a year to losing money, do you?
 

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Beware the Attack Basset
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You don't think losing a few million subscribers will cause them to go from making $4 billion a year to losing money, do you?
Given that the DBS ARPU was upwards of $1,800 per year, it doesn't take long to lay waste to $4 billion when spread across "a few million" lost customers ($4 billion in revenue = 2,222,222 subscribers). At the projected rate, DIRECTV could easily be at break even by next Spring.

Because DIRECTV's offering isn't particularly traffic sensitive (it costs mostly the same whether they have twelve million DBS subscribers or six million), the costs are probably subject to re-negotiation and that's not a good thing when your "most favored nation" status becomes more "also-ran" than "a friend to have".

That said, these aren't really numbers that can be easily extrapolated given the changes in the marketplace. Not having the annual $1.5 billion dollar NFLST cost won't hurt profits but not having the exclusive on NFLST will almost certainly hurt revenues.
 

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Beware the Attack Basset
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Don’t have them yet. Don’t need them either Can flip over to a corresponding app and sign in with my credentials and watch in 4K
Specifically what apps does DIRECTV STREAM offer authentication for that provide viewing of content seen on the 4K DBS channels?
 

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Given that the DBS ARPU was upwards of $1,800 per year, it doesn't take long to lay waste to $4 billion when spread across "a few million" lost customers ($4 billion in revenue = 2,222,222 subscribers). At the projected rate, DIRECTV could easily be at break even by next Spring.

Only if you're dumb enough to think that their expenses don't drop as well. Every customer who leaves reduces the money they pay to networks and local stations - which is estimated at around 70% of the typical cable/satellite bill these days.

Plus you need fewer CSRs, fewer installers, etc.

If you really believe that rather than are just trolling, how many subscribers do you think Dish can lose before they are losing money?
 

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No, AT&T's published figures from the last time they did prior to the sale give people CERTAINTY that Directv is still profitable. You don't think losing a few million subscribers will cause them to go from making $4 billion a year to losing money, do you?
Calm down. Take a breath. I was thinking of the people who were thinking AT&T was hiding their profitability because satellite itself somehow stopped being a profitable service. DISH proves that satellite is still profitable and that proof extends to DIRECTV. I am not claiming that DIRECTV is not profitable.

AT&T's dated figures only show the level of profitability at the time of the report. Less subscribers doesn't mean less profits. After all, AT&T|DIRECTV reported $3.7 billion profit for the two years 2019-2020 (the only full years where the video division was reported separately). DISH reported $4.8 billion profit (video) those same two years with 2/3rds of the subscriber count. Consider that hope.
 

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Given that the DBS ARPU was upwards of $1,800 per year,
What year and company are you basing that claim on? The math is flawed since ARPU is average revenue per user, not average profit per user. AT&T|DIRECTV's profit was closer to $20 per month, $240 per year or only a $360 million loss for 1.5 million lost customers. And that is assuming they didn't find a way to make more money on less subscribers by cutting costs.
 

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The profit figures for both Directv and Dish would be colored by the amount of debt they are carrying, and depreciation for long capital expenses like satellites. Dish's numbers are probably more reflective of the profitability of a DBS satellite business since presumably Ergen has no reason to load them up with a lot of debt that wasn't their fault like AT&T did with Directv.

So while Directv may starting "losing" money in an accounting sense before Dish does, if/when that happens they will go through Chapter 11 and flush most of that debt. So long as the underlying operation itself is profitable, they would remain in business.
 
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